John H wrote:

On Mon, 28 Feb 2005 16:58:09 GMT, "Jim," wrote:


Social Security reform chatter is everywhere, and it's likely that at
some point, you're going to be cornered by the water cooler or in the
cafeteria and asked what you think. Your conversation partner may even
be (gasp) a conservative. So be ready. This guide from Think Progress (a
project of the American Progress Action Fund) includes point-by-point
claims in the Bush administration's words, coupled with the real facts
about Social Security. Make sure you're able to explain to a
conservative why that "personal" account won't really be yours to
control, or why passing on account money to your grandchildren won't be
possible. SEE THE GUIDE

http://thinkprogress.org/index.php?p=206



Here's some good thinking:

FACT: Analysis of the plan so far does not prove the [personal] accounts would
be a better deal for anyone not working on Wall Street. Workers who opt for the
private accounts would recover forfeited benefits through their accounts only
“if their investments realized a return equal to or greater than the 3 percent
earned by Treasury bonds currently held by the Social Security system.”

Of course, analysis doesn't prove it would be a worse deal either. History shows
it would likely be a better deal than the 3% earned by bonds. Is there risk?
Sure.

Except the blended return of bonds held by the SS administration is
closer to 5%. The 3% figure is only for the most recent bonds, and
rates are rising again.

Here are todays numbers note the 30 year return is 5.375%
From http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/
(note that unlike you *I* always try to give a source for my data, so
people can check what i say)
U.S. TREASURIES
Bills
COUPON MATURITY
DATE CURRENT
PRICE/YIELD PRICE/YIELD
CHANGE TIME
3-Month N.A. 05/26/2005 2.69/2.74 0.00/.015 11:14
6-Month N.A. 08/25/2005 2.89/2.97 -0.01/.031 10:54
Notes/Bonds
COUPON MATURITY
DATE CURRENT
PRICE/YIELD PRICE/YIELD
CHANGE TIME
2-Year 3.375 02/28/2007 99-19/3.58 -0-03/.053 12:22
3-Year 3.375 02/15/2008 98-31/3.74 -0-06/.068 12:23
5-Year 3.500 02/15/2010 97-27/3.98 -0-12/.085 12:24
10-Year 4.000 02/15/2015 97-06/4.35 -0-21/.084 12:24
30-Year 5.375 02/15/2031 109-29/4.71 -1-06/.074 12:23




But, people can always stop putting their money into risky accounts. In fact,
they can stop participation at any time.

I still can't understand how a bunch of 'pro-choice' folks can be so
'anti-choice'!

Do we assume people have the responsibility to make baby-killing decisions but
not monthly investment decisions?

John H

On the 'PocoLoco' out of Deale, MD,
on the beautiful Chesapeake Bay!

"Divide each difficulty into as many parts as is feasible and necessary to resolve it."
Rene Descartes