News poll: Bush leads in Michigan

State still up for grabs since president's support remains below critical 50
percent

By Charlie Cain, and Mark Hornbeck / Detroit News Lansing Bureau







Poll methodology

The Detroit News commissioned Mitchell Research & Communications Inc. of East
Lansing to conduct the survey. The firm interviewed 200 likely voters by
telephone on both Monday and Tuesday. The polling will continue through next
week, and the results will appear in The News through Sunday, Oct. 31. The
so-called tracking poll provides a moving picture on public opinion. Starting
Friday, the poll will include 600 likely voters. On each new day of polling,
200 new voters will be added to the survey, and the oldest 200 survey responses
will be discarded.


President Bush has moved ahead of Democratic challenger John Kerry in Michigan,
according to a Detroit News poll, but hasn’t reached the critical 50 percent
support plateau — suggesting the state remains in contention as the
presidential race draws to a close.

In the initial installment of a poll that regularly will track voter sentiment
in the final two weeks of the campaign, Bush held a 47 percent to 43 percent
lead over the Massachusetts senator. The incumbent president’s lead is well
within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. The
statewide poll of 400 likely voters was taken Monday and Tuesday.

Most recent polls have shown Kerry with a narrow lead in Michigan. A Detroit
News poll in June had the candidates virtually tied, with Bush at 44 percent
and Kerry at 43 percent.

“This poll clearly demonstrates that Michigan will be very close,� said
Steve Mitchell, an East Lansing-based pollster who conducted the survey. “I
am surprised; a lot of other polling has shown Kerry in the lead.�

Michigan went for Democrat Al Gore four years ago and hasn’t favored a
Republican presidential candidate since the elder George Bush beat
Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis in 1988.

This state is widely seen as one of 10 battleground states across the country.
The winner claims Michigan’s 17 electoral votes. Political experts say Kerry
must take Michigan to win the election. Should Bush win a majority here,
he’ll likely cruise to a comfortable victory.

The survey also shows state ballot Proposal 2 defining marriage as strictly
between one man and one woman winning easily, with a 67 percent to 24 percent
margin.

The tally on a state constitutional amendment requiring statewide and local
voter approval of gambling expansion is much closer. Proposal 1 is leading 46
percent to 40 percent.

Poll participants increasingly single out the economy as the most pressing
issue facing the state. Jobs and the economy were named by 43 percent of
respondents in January, and 48 percent in June. In this week’s polling,
nearly six in 10 put the economy No. 1. No other issue even reached double
digits.

“The economy is first with me,� said Robert Crawford, a 50-year-old
restaurant owner from Southfield and Kerry supporter who took part in the poll.
“I work on the east side of Detroit, and there’s decline and decay all
around me. All this outsourcing and downsizing isn’t helping the country.�

Michigan’s unemployment rate inched up to 6.8 percent last month, well above
the national average of 5.4 percent. The state has lost nearly 200,000
manufacturing jobs over the past four years — including 6,000 last month.

When asked whether the economy or homeland security was the most important
national issue, 46 percent picked jobs and 44 percent said national security.

Kerry was favored by 62 percent of those who said the economy was most
important. Bush is backed by 71 percent of those who say national security
issues are most important.

“The economy doesn’t mean much if we don’t have national security. That
overrides everything,� said Patricia Walker, a retired adoption specialist
from Chesterfield Township who backs Bush.

Bush has a commanding 18-point lead among men, but Kerry leads by seven points
among women.

In Metro Detroit, Kerry held a 48 percent to 41 percent lead while Bush led
outstate, 51 percent to 38 percent. Kerry is expected to do well in the city of
Detroit, while Bush needs to take Oakland and Macomb counties and turn out his
base on the west side of the state to win.

Kerry had a 49 percent to 42 percent edge among union households, while Bush
led 49 percent to 40 percent among non-union homes. Union foot soldiers for the
UAW and AFL-CIO are aggressively campaigning on Kerry’s behalf.

Among Protestant voters, Bush led 52 percent to 39 percent, and Catholics favor
the president 51 percent to 39 percent. Infrequent church-goers generally favor
Kerry, while those who regularly attend worship services generally back Bush.

Those who identify themselves as pro-life support Bush, 66 percent to 26
percent. Those who say they are pro-choice back Kerry, 59 percent to 30
percent. Right to Life of Michigan is working phone banks and going
door-to-door for Bush. Kerry is supported by the Michigan Abortion Rights
Action League and Planned Parenthood.

The state ballot proposals also are generating a lot of interest among voters.

Michigan already bans same-sex marriage, but supporters of Proposal 2 want
assurances that the courts or future legislatures don’t overturn that law.
Detractors say the ban amounts to unnecessary duplication and could jeopardize
benefits received by domestic couples, whether they be heterosexual or
homosexual. Ten other states also will decide same-sex marriage ballot
proposals Nov. 2.

Proposal 1 is backed by existing tribal and Detroit casinos and gambling foes
as a way to halt slot machines at horse race tracks and other new forms of
gaming in the state.

Opponents, including Gov. Jennifer Granholm and education groups, say its
adoption could threaten the future of the lottery and thus funding for schools.



You can reach Charlie Cain at (517) 371-3660 or .

RGrew176 wrote:
News poll: Bush leads in Michigan

A survey of 200?

Don't you feel peculiar supporting Bush, the dumbest POTUS in the
history of this country?