Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity
By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Published: September 30, 2004


Global warming is likely to produce a significant increase in the intensity
and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades, according to the most
comprehensive computer analysis done so far.

By the 2080's, seas warmed by rising atmospheric concentrations of heat-
trapping greenhouse gases could cause a typical hurricane to intensify
about an extra half step on the five-step scale of destructive power, says
the study, done on supercomputers at the Commerce Department's Geophysical
Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J. And rainfall up to 60 miles
from the core would be nearly 20 percent more intense.

Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that hurricanes will
grow stronger and wetter as a result of global warming. But this study is
particularly significant, independent experts said, because it used half a
dozen computer simulations of global climate, devised by separate groups at
institutions around the world. The long-term trends it identifies are
independent of the normal lulls and surges in hurricane activity that have
been on display in recent decades.

The study was published online on Tuesday by The Journal of Climate and can
be found at http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/b...004/tk0401.pdf.

The new study of hurricanes and warming "is by far and away the most
comprehensive effort" to assess the question using powerful computer
simulations, said Dr. Kerry A. Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology who has seen the paper but did not
work on it. About the link between the warming of tropical oceans and storm
intensity, he said, "This clinches the issue."

Dr. Emanuel and the study's authors cautioned that it was too soon to know
whether hurricanes would form more or less frequently in a warmer world.
Even as seas warm, for example, accelerating high-level winds can shred the
towering cloud formations of a tropical storm.

But the authors said that even if the number of storms simply stayed the
same, the increased intensity would substantially increase their potential
for destruction.

Experts also said that rising sea levels caused by global warming would
lead to more flooding from hurricanes - a point underlined at the United
Nations this week by leaders of several small island nations, who pleaded
for more attention to the potential for devastation from tidal surges.

The new study used four climate centers' mathematical approximations of the
physics by which ocean heat fuels tropical storms.

With almost every combination of greenhouse-warmed oceans and atmosphere
and formulas for storm dynamics, the results were the same: more powerful
storms and more rainfall, said Robert Tuleya, one of the paper's two
authors. He is a hurricane expert who recently retired after 31 years at
the fluid dynamics laboratory and teaches at Old Dominion University in
Norfolk, Va. The other author was Dr. Thomas R. Knutson of the Princeton
laboratory.

Altogether, the researchers spawned around 1,300 virtual hurricanes using a
more powerful version of the same supercomputer simulations that generates
Commerce Department forecasts of the tracks and behavior of real
hurricanes.

Dr. James B. Elsner, a hurricane expert at Florida State University who was
among the first to predict the recent surge in Atlantic storm activity,
said the new study was a significant step in examining the impacts of a
warmer future.

But like Dr. Emanuel, he also emphasized that the extraordinary complexity
of the oceans and atmosphere made any scientific progress "baby steps
toward a final answer."

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/30/sc...tml?oref=login
--
We today have a president of the United States who looks like he is the
son of Howdy Doody or Alfred E. Newman, who isn't smarter than either of
them, who is arrogant about his ignorance, who is reckless and
incompetent, and whose backers are turning the United States into a pariah.

What, me worry?

On Fri, 01 Oct 2004 07:21:28 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote:

Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity

While that may or may not be true, it hasn't been happening yet. Even
this year, which seems so bad, is hardly out of the ordinary wrt the
total number and strength of hurricanes. All that's happened is that
Florida has been unlucky enough to get 4 of them.

As you can see from
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/Table5.htm
the total number hurricanes as well as of major hurricanes to hit the US
has trended down since the first half of the century and will probably
be trending up again because of the hurricane cycle that's been observed
since the 1800's. See
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurr...icanes-amm.htm

So when the hurricane cycle does start trending up, of course everyone's
going to conclude it's due to global warming. But it will be at least
another half century before we know whether that's true or not.

Steve

Steven Shelikoff wrote:
On Fri, 01 Oct 2004 07:21:28 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote:

Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity

While that may or may not be true, it hasn't been happening yet. Even
this year, which seems so bad, is hardly out of the ordinary wrt the
total number and strength of hurricanes. All that's happened is that
Florida has been unlucky enough to get 4 of them.

As you can see from
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/Table5.htm
the total number hurricanes as well as of major hurricanes to hit the US
has trended down since the first half of the century and will probably
be trending up again because of the hurricane cycle that's been observed
since the 1800's. See
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurr...icanes-amm.htm

So when the hurricane cycle does start trending up, of course everyone's
going to conclude it's due to global warming. But it will be at least
another half century before we know whether that's true or not.

Steve

Hey, Steve...you know those anti-sub airplanes we used to discuss when I
live in Jax?

They followed me here.

For the last month, there have been dozens of flights of those planes
near our farmette. I haven't investigated, but my guess is they are
training flights coming out of the PAX NAS, heading about 30 miles up
the coast, and then circling back. They sure as hell can't be looking
for subs in Chesapeake Bay.

--
We today have a president of the United States who looks like he is the
son of Howdy Doody or Alfred E. Newman, who isn't smarter than either of
them, who is arrogant about his ignorance, who is reckless and
incompetent, and whose backers are turning the United States into a pariah.

What, me worry?

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity
By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Published: September 30, 2004


Global warming is likely to produce an increase in the intensity
and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades, according to the most
comprehensive computer analysis done so far.

By the 2080's, seas warmed by rising atmospheric concentrations of heat-
trapping greenhouse gases could cause a typical hurricane to intensify
about an extra half step on the five-step scale of destructive power

The lulls and surges in Hurricane activity over the years have been solar
cycle driven. Global warming over the next 20 years might see the same
effect of one of the cycles of the sun, in other words slightly less than
one degree. The next solar cycle could see the above predicted results
because greenhouse warming would then be added to solar warming.

Long term, when the world turns to coal for it's energy needs (30 years) the
atmosphere will have lots of particles that will cause global cooling. We
in the US will probably have laws and technology restricting the emissions
of coal fired power plants but Dictatorships and "Peoples Governments" won't
care and will take the profits in not curbing their emissions. The Higher
death rates in their countrys will be just an effective form of population
control.

Expect permafrost as far south as the Carolinas. Large scale genetic
manipulation of crops to allow them to grow in the colder climate. New
Glaciers forming in higher mountains and north of the US border. Water
level dropping in the oceans. On the good side, less greenhouse emissions
from termites, less disease, fewer incects, the Sahara should green up
again.

The oceans rising are a myth. We might see 1 foot total in the next 80
years as marginal glaciers that are already melting increase their melt
rate. Most of the water trapped as Ice is at -50 degrees and global warming
of 1 degree is going to have No effect

In article ,
Harry Krause wrote:


Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity
By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Published: September 30, 2004


Global warming is likely to produce a significant increase in the intensity
and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades, according to the most
comprehensive computer analysis done so far.

Hilarious.

By the 2080's, seas warmed by rising atmospheric concentrations of heat-
trapping greenhouse gases could cause a typical hurricane to intensify
about an extra half step on the five-step scale of destructive power, says
the study, done on supercomputers at the Commerce Department's Geophysical
Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J. And rainfall up to 60 miles
from the core would be nearly 20 percent more intense.

Note the logical problem with this.

There is no consensus over whether global warming IS EVEN HAPPENING, and
further, there is a problem with distribution of the warming - which
interestingly enough, according to the EVIDENCE we have, is not being
distributed where such a study needs it to for this to happen.

Indeed, the "evidence" is completely missing for such a postulate.

The truth, Harry, as I'm sure you are aware of, is that there are cycles in
both hurricane activity and global climate. They're NORMAL, and caused by
environmental factors that are outside the scope of man's control.

For instance, Mt. St. Helens appears ready to belch a bunch of material into
the atmosphere. That will produce global COOLING if it happens, since that
material will prevent sunlight from reaching the ground.

Indeed, if you look at the normal cycles over time, you will find strong
correlations between global temperatures and volcanic activity. Gee, that's
curious - NOT!

There is a roughly 30 year cycle in hurricane activity historically, and a
few-hundred-year cycle in SSTs (again, historically).

To make the case for global warming, you must not just show that warming is
occurring - you have to show that it exceeds that which can be attributed to
these NORMAL cycles in climate - which has simply not been done.

--
--
Karl Denninger ) Internet Consultant & Kids Rights Activist
http://www.denninger.net My home on the net - links to everything I do!
http://scubaforum.org Your UNCENSORED place to talk about DIVING!
http://www.spamcuda.net SPAM FREE mailboxes - FREE FOR A LIMITED TIME!
http://genesis3.blogspot.com Musings Of A Sentient Mind

Karl Denninger wrote:
In article ,
Harry Krause wrote:


Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity
By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Published: September 30, 2004


Global warming is likely to produce a significant increase in the intensity
and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades, according to the most
comprehensive computer analysis done so far.

Hilarious.

By the 2080's, seas warmed by rising atmospheric concentrations of heat-
trapping greenhouse gases could cause a typical hurricane to intensify
about an extra half step on the five-step scale of destructive power, says
the study, done on supercomputers at the Commerce Department's Geophysical
Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J. And rainfall up to 60 miles
from the core would be nearly 20 percent more intense.

Note the logical problem with this.

There is no consensus over whether global warming IS EVEN HAPPENING, and
further, there is a problem with distribution of the warming - which
interestingly enough, according to the EVIDENCE we have, is not being
distributed where such a study needs it to for this to happen.

Indeed, the "evidence" is completely missing for such a postulate.

The truth, Harry, as I'm sure you are aware of, is that there are cycles in
both hurricane activity and global climate. They're NORMAL, and caused by
environmental factors that are outside the scope of man's control.


Karl, I am NOT a physical scientist. But I am a good reader. I've read a
lot about global warming, including "dissertations" on both sides of
what has become a politicized issue.

The verdict is not in, but there is a lot of evidence that indicates the
climate is changing, and that the warming that is taking place is having
deleterious effects now and in the future, and that we are having some
impact on the "environmental factors."

It behooves us to take some steps to lessen our negative impact on the
environment, especially since we do not know with certainty which side
is ride.



--
We today have a president of the United States who looks like he is the
son of Howdy Doody or Alfred E. Newman, who isn't smarter than either of
them, who is arrogant about his ignorance, who is reckless and
incompetent, and whose backers are turning the United States into a pariah.

What, me worry?

On Fri, 01 Oct 2004 08:37:24 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote:

Steven Shelikoff wrote:
On Fri, 01 Oct 2004 07:21:28 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote:

Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity

While that may or may not be true, it hasn't been happening yet. Even
this year, which seems so bad, is hardly out of the ordinary wrt the
total number and strength of hurricanes. All that's happened is that
Florida has been unlucky enough to get 4 of them.

As you can see from
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/Table5.htm
the total number hurricanes as well as of major hurricanes to hit the US
has trended down since the first half of the century and will probably
be trending up again because of the hurricane cycle that's been observed
since the 1800's. See
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurr...icanes-amm.htm

So when the hurricane cycle does start trending up, of course everyone's
going to conclude it's due to global warming. But it will be at least
another half century before we know whether that's true or not.

Steve

Hey, Steve...you know those anti-sub airplanes we used to discuss when I
live in Jax?

They followed me here.

For the last month, there have been dozens of flights of those planes
near our farmette. I haven't investigated, but my guess is they are
training flights coming out of the PAX NAS, heading about 30 miles up
the coast, and then circling back. They sure as hell can't be looking
for subs in Chesapeake Bay.

Are they black?

~~ snicker ~~

All the best,

Tom
--------------

"What the hell's the deal with this newsgroup...
is there a computer terminal in the day room of
some looney bin somewhere?"

Bilgeman - circa 2004

On Fri, 01 Oct 2004 10:13:18 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote:

Karl Denninger wrote:
In article ,
Harry Krause wrote:


Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity
By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Published: September 30, 2004


Global warming is likely to produce a significant increase in the intensity
and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades, according to the most
comprehensive computer analysis done so far.

Hilarious.

By the 2080's, seas warmed by rising atmospheric concentrations of heat-
trapping greenhouse gases could cause a typical hurricane to intensify
about an extra half step on the five-step scale of destructive power, says
the study, done on supercomputers at the Commerce Department's Geophysical
Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J. And rainfall up to 60 miles
from the core would be nearly 20 percent more intense.

Note the logical problem with this.

There is no consensus over whether global warming IS EVEN HAPPENING, and
further, there is a problem with distribution of the warming - which
interestingly enough, according to the EVIDENCE we have, is not being
distributed where such a study needs it to for this to happen.

Indeed, the "evidence" is completely missing for such a postulate.

The truth, Harry, as I'm sure you are aware of, is that there are cycles in
both hurricane activity and global climate. They're NORMAL, and caused by
environmental factors that are outside the scope of man's control.


Karl, I am NOT a physical scientist. But I am a good reader. I've read a
lot about global warming, including "dissertations" on both sides of
what has become a politicized issue.

The verdict is not in, but there is a lot of evidence that indicates the
climate is changing, and that the warming that is taking place is having
deleterious effects now and in the future, and that we are having some
impact on the "environmental factors."

It behooves us to take some steps to lessen our negative impact on the
environment, especially since we do not know with certainty which side
is ride.

The problem is just like which side of the aisle you sit in church -
the good side or the other good side.

Global warming science is shaky at best. Recent studies in Antartica
indicate that the ozone hole that everybody was shaky about ten or so
years ago may also have a natural cycle. We just haven't been here
long enough, not is there enough human historical data, to make that
kind of decision.

It does not mean that some sort of pollution isn't happening - it is
happening. But that's different than Global Warming.

The whole Global Warming thing is somebodies pet theory and that's
about it.

Later,

Tom

The guys on the Weather Channel say this is NOT caused by global warming.
Warming would cause another El Nino and that tends to suppress hurricanes.

The reality is there are two issues with global warming anyway.

1. Is it really getting warmer?
2. Is that a natural process or something man made?

Since the history of the planet is marked with warming and cooling cycles, we
should really look long and hard at #2.
Throwing another virgin in the volcano never kept it from erupting but it
seemed to make the witch doctor and his followers feel like they were doing
something.

On 01 Oct 2004 19:43:41 GMT, (Greg) wrote:

The guys on the Weather Channel say this is NOT caused by global warming.
Warming would cause another El Nino and that tends to suppress hurricanes.

The reality is there are two issues with global warming anyway.

1. Is it really getting warmer?
2. Is that a natural process or something man made?

Since the history of the planet is marked with warming and cooling cycles, we
should really look long and hard at #2.
Throwing another virgin in the volcano never kept it from erupting but it
seemed to make the witch doctor and his followers feel like they were doing
something.

It's basically what I said three/four days ago.

Except for the volcano/virgin thing. :)

Take care.

Tom

"The beatings will stop when morale improves."
E. Teach, 1717