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Steven Shelikoff
 
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On Fri, 01 Oct 2004 07:21:28 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote:

Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity


While that may or may not be true, it hasn't been happening yet. Even
this year, which seems so bad, is hardly out of the ordinary wrt the
total number and strength of hurricanes. All that's happened is that
Florida has been unlucky enough to get 4 of them.

As you can see from
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/Table5.htm
the total number hurricanes as well as of major hurricanes to hit the US
has trended down since the first half of the century and will probably
be trending up again because of the hurricane cycle that's been observed
since the 1800's. See
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurr...icanes-amm.htm

So when the hurricane cycle does start trending up, of course everyone's
going to conclude it's due to global warming. But it will be at least
another half century before we know whether that's true or not.

Steve
 
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