David Lazarus
Wednesday, September 1, 2004



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The Republicans, ever on the prowl for innovative ideas, will spend
tonight erecting a newfangled runway leading from the stage at their
New York convention to a special podium in the middle of the floor.

Thursday evening, President Bush will stroll down the runway like Miss
America, smile for all those judging his poise and appearance, and
talk about his hopes for world peace.

What he probably won't say is that these past four years have been
unusually harsh for average Americans.

"It's been an extremely disappointing period for our economic
well-being, " said Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan
Brookings Institution in Washington. "On balance, President Bush's
policies have done more harm than good."

That's obviously not what the Republicans will be trying to convey
when the leader of the free world takes his promenade before admiring
onlookers.

"It will underscore that this is the man in the arena," said Leonardo
Alcivar, press secretary for the convention. "This is the man who led
strongly during a period of change and in which our nation's character
was tested."

Aides have suggested that, along with making the world a safer place,
Bush's speech Thursday will center on restructuring the Social
Security system, the tax code and health care.

These are all fine goals, just as they were when Bush declared them to
be among his priorities during the last presidential campaign.

Meanwhile, here are some examples of what actually transpired for the
U.S. economy during Bush's term in office.

-- There are currently 1.1 million fewer jobs than in January 2001,
placing Bush on track to be the first president since the Great
Depression to end his term with a net job loss.

-- Inflation-adjusted median household income has fallen by $1,535, or
3. 4 percent, during the past three years to $43,318, according to
Census figures released last week.

-- Average hourly earnings rose by 1.9 percent during the past 12
months, according to the Labor Department. Consumer prices, however,
have climbed by about 3 percent.

-- Home ownership is up thanks mainly to low interest rates. But easy
credit has also led to record consumer debt ($2.038 trillion) and
record personal bankruptcy filings (1.7 million in 2003).

-- The number of Americans living in poverty increased by 1.3 million
last year, according to Census figures. The rate of child poverty
climbed to 17.6 percent, while nearly a quarter of all African
Americans are now below the poverty line.

-- Earnings by women declined last year for the first time since 1995,
falling 0.6 percent to an average $30,724 annually. Women now earn 76
cents for every dollar earned by men, a penny less than in 2002.

-- The number of Americans lacking health insurance increased to a
record 45 million last year from 43.6 million in 2002.

-- The White House is projecting a record budget deficit this year of
$445 billion. When Bush took office, the federal budget had been
balanced for three straight years and was running a surplus of $236
billion -- the largest in U.S. history.

Brookings' Mann said Bush is not directly to blame for all these woes.
He noted that Bush inherited a weakening economy when he first took
his seat in the Oval Office.

"But it turned out to be a very mild recession," Mann said. "In the
years since then, the performance of the economy has been much less
than what we're used to seeing after such a downturn.

"Bush may not be to blame for our current troubles," he added. "But
his tax cuts are largely responsible for deficits as far as the eye
can see, and you could say he did very little to head off the various
other trends that were developing."

Brian Riedl, budget analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation,
acknowledged that "the economy has been through a rough four years."

But he stressed that the U.S. economy is too vast for a single person
to be blamed for lackluster performance. "It's absurd to suggest that
all short- run economic trends are the fault of the president," Riedl
said.

Be that as it may, there's still that nagging question, first posed by
Ronald Reagan in 1980, about whether people are better off now than
they were four years ago.

"If I kept my job, I'm probably better off," Riedl answered. "If I
lost my job, I'm probably worse off."

Personally, I think both Mann and Riedl are right.

The U.S. economy is indeed bigger than a single person, no matter how
highly placed. That said, economic stability is a fair and reasonable
yardstick by which to judge a president's stewardship of the nation.

Bush sought the White House at a time of peace and prosperity. He now
has U.S. forces committed to wars in two nations -- with no end in
sight for either -- and is presiding over an economy that's seen
setbacks for all but the wealthiest citizens.

When Bush addresses his party and the nation, he can't be faulted for
focusing on the future -- that's what this race is about. At the same
time, though, Americans have every right to hold the president
accountable for the current state of the nation.

"There's only one reason to look backward, and that is to determine
who best to lead us forward," Bush told supporters in Ohio last
weekend. "I'm here to tell you that ... we've done a lot, we have more
to do."

Hopefully he'll have more to say on the subject tomorrow. Otherwise,
this week's events amount to little more than a beauty pageant. With a
single contestant.

Or is that the whole point?