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Default Testing fallacy

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 08:03:01 -0400, John wrote:

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 01:24:27 -0400, wrote:

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 04:19:48 -0000 (UTC), Bill
wrote:

wrote:
On Fri, 17 Apr 2020 19:08:07 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:



Doc Fauci addressed an important issue regarding "testing"
due to the growing concerns and even demands that "everybody"
gets tested for covid-19 before they go back to work.

Problem is that those who test negative
today could go out and become infected tomorrow.

In order to confirm that people going back to work are
free of infection .... they'd have to literally be tested
every day.

I have been saying that all along.

Another thing that he addressed is that many believe that once
infected and recovered, a person is "immune" to becoming
infected again.

He said that's a reasonable assumption based on the history
of other viral diseases, but it has not yet been 100% proven to
be the case with covid-19.

If our experience with the other Covids holds true, this will mutate
and we won't be totally immune but the antibodies we have will make
fighting it off easier.


It may become another flu.


Or just another nagging seasonal cold.


Except for us old guys.


The answer for us is still getting the antibodies, either by surviving
the disease or with a vaccine. Anything else is simply waiting until
you get it. The question is not if but when.
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Default Testing fallacy

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 09:16:48 -0400, wrote:

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 08:03:01 -0400, John wrote:

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 01:24:27 -0400,
wrote:

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 04:19:48 -0000 (UTC), Bill
wrote:

wrote:
On Fri, 17 Apr 2020 19:08:07 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:



Doc Fauci addressed an important issue regarding "testing"
due to the growing concerns and even demands that "everybody"
gets tested for covid-19 before they go back to work.

Problem is that those who test negative
today could go out and become infected tomorrow.

In order to confirm that people going back to work are
free of infection .... they'd have to literally be tested
every day.

I have been saying that all along.

Another thing that he addressed is that many believe that once
infected and recovered, a person is "immune" to becoming
infected again.

He said that's a reasonable assumption based on the history
of other viral diseases, but it has not yet been 100% proven to
be the case with covid-19.

If our experience with the other Covids holds true, this will mutate
and we won't be totally immune but the antibodies we have will make
fighting it off easier.


It may become another flu.

Or just another nagging seasonal cold.


Except for us old guys.


The answer for us is still getting the antibodies, either by surviving
the disease or with a vaccine. Anything else is simply waiting until
you get it. The question is not if but when.


My thoughts exactly.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!
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Default Testing fallacy

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 19:29:46 -0000 (UTC), Bill
wrote:

wrote:
On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 09:16:48 -0400, wrote:

The answer for us is still getting the antibodies, either by surviving
the disease or with a vaccine. Anything else is simply waiting until
you get it. The question is not if but when.


===

Exactly right. We were supposed to fly to Italy next month and take a
cruise to the Greek islands. We were looking forward to it but
needless to say that's off the table, perhaps forever. I'm glad we
got in our windjammer cruise and transatlantic Greenland cruise when
we did.

Regarding the Northern Lights, be aware that it is quite rare to see
the full "shimmering curtain" effect. Much more often they present as
just a greenish glow in the northern sky. The spectacular pictures
that you see are usually a result of someone spending half a winter
above the arctic circle and experimenting with time exposures.


I would wait until the conditions are right and fly to Fairbanks. Friend
from DeKalb, IL went on a Northern lights cruise. Did not see any, but
while she was gone, had the lights over northern Illinois.


Our kids say they see them in Northern Michigan and I suggested that
as a "two for the price of one" vacation but she wants to go to
Iceland. As I said, I doubt we are going anywhere for at least a year
because of this covid thing and that puts is in the winter of 22.

I would have been 75 ;-)


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First recorded activity by BoatBanter: Jan 2017
Posts: 4,553
Default Testing fallacy

wrote:
On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 19:29:46 -0000 (UTC), Bill
wrote:

wrote:
On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 09:16:48 -0400, wrote:

The answer for us is still getting the antibodies, either by surviving
the disease or with a vaccine. Anything else is simply waiting until
you get it. The question is not if but when.

===

Exactly right. We were supposed to fly to Italy next month and take a
cruise to the Greek islands. We were looking forward to it but
needless to say that's off the table, perhaps forever. I'm glad we
got in our windjammer cruise and transatlantic Greenland cruise when
we did.

Regarding the Northern Lights, be aware that it is quite rare to see
the full "shimmering curtain" effect. Much more often they present as
just a greenish glow in the northern sky. The spectacular pictures
that you see are usually a result of someone spending half a winter
above the arctic circle and experimenting with time exposures.


I would wait until the conditions are right and fly to Fairbanks. Friend
from DeKalb, IL went on a Northern lights cruise. Did not see any, but
while she was gone, had the lights over northern Illinois.


Our kids say they see them in Northern Michigan and I suggested that
as a "two for the price of one" vacation but she wants to go to
Iceland. As I said, I doubt we are going anywhere for at least a year
because of this covid thing and that puts is in the winter of 22.

I would have been 75 ;-)


Still young. I turned 77 in March.

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