On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 07:38:29 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 4/1/2020 7:26 AM, John wrote:
On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 23:47:11 -0400, wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 20:56:35 -0400, John wrote:
And you predicted all this a month ago?

I'm sorry. 2 weeks and 4 days ago


On Thu, 12 Mar 2020 20:03:17 -0400, Alex wrote:

Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Thu, 12 Mar 2020 12:46:28 -0400 (EDT), Justan Ohlphart wrote:

Adorable Deplorable Wrote in message:
On Thu, 12 Mar 2020 08:32:39 -0700 (PDT), Its Me wrote:On Thursday, March 12, 2020 at 11:18:01 AM UTC-4, John H wrote: ...that is the question! -- Freedom Isn't Free!Don't sell. Not unless you want to turn your short term losses into long term losses.The idea would be to get back in when, and if, things start improving. I'm not 'investor certified'though!--Freedom Isn't Free!
A 50% loss would result in the need to make a 100% gain to break
even, if you bought back the same stock at what you sold it for.
If the stock declined another 50% you could buy twice the amount
you sold but you'd still need a 100% gain to break
even.

If the stock rose 50% after you sold it would cost you 25% more to
buy it back. If the stock regained its original value it would
cost you twice as much as you sold it for, to buy it
back.

Numbers dont lie.
I suppose that means to hang on to it?
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

And buy more!

snip stock thing

If they are really serious that we are going to hit stop on the
economic engine until they declare the virus is contained, the economy
might not start when we hit go.
The debt bomb we are all dreading may have gone off by then and we
will be in worse shape than 2008-9 with the central banks failing not
just AIG and Lehman.
I understand that is probably not going to happen but it isn't as
unrealistic as some of the predictions I am hearing about this virus.

Another dire prediction? When, and if, this is all over, you will undoubtedly
win the prize for the most dire predictions!


Greg, just a thought:

China is America's biggest creditor by far.
Is China going to call the note?

And even if they did, what if the USA just said, "**** you"?

Is China going to turn it over to a collection agency? :-)

If the entire world's currency was devalued by 20%, would it make a ****? I'm no
economist, just wondering.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

On 4/1/2020 7:46 AM, John wrote:
On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 07:38:29 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 4/1/2020 7:26 AM, John wrote:
On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 23:47:11 -0400, wrote:

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 20:56:35 -0400, John wrote:
And you predicted all this a month ago?

I'm sorry. 2 weeks and 4 days ago


On Thu, 12 Mar 2020 20:03:17 -0400, Alex wrote:

Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Thu, 12 Mar 2020 12:46:28 -0400 (EDT), Justan Ohlphart wrote:

Adorable Deplorable Wrote in message:
On Thu, 12 Mar 2020 08:32:39 -0700 (PDT), Its Me wrote:On Thursday, March 12, 2020 at 11:18:01 AM UTC-4, John H wrote: ...that is the question! -- Freedom Isn't Free!Don't sell. Not unless you want to turn your short term losses into long term losses.The idea would be to get back in when, and if, things start improving. I'm not 'investor certified'though!--Freedom Isn't Free!
A 50% loss would result in the need to make a 100% gain to break
even, if you bought back the same stock at what you sold it for.
If the stock declined another 50% you could buy twice the amount
you sold but you'd still need a 100% gain to break
even.

If the stock rose 50% after you sold it would cost you 25% more to
buy it back. If the stock regained its original value it would
cost you twice as much as you sold it for, to buy it
back.

Numbers dont lie.
I suppose that means to hang on to it?
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

And buy more!

snip stock thing

If they are really serious that we are going to hit stop on the
economic engine until they declare the virus is contained, the economy
might not start when we hit go.
The debt bomb we are all dreading may have gone off by then and we
will be in worse shape than 2008-9 with the central banks failing not
just AIG and Lehman.
I understand that is probably not going to happen but it isn't as
unrealistic as some of the predictions I am hearing about this virus.

Another dire prediction? When, and if, this is all over, you will undoubtedly
win the prize for the most dire predictions!


Greg, just a thought:

China is America's biggest creditor by far.
Is China going to call the note?

And even if they did, what if the USA just said, "**** you"?

Is China going to turn it over to a collection agency? :-)

If the entire world's currency was devalued by 20%, would it make a ****? I'm no
economist, just wondering.


Don't know. Beyond my paygrade.

I realize that what is read both in print and on the Internet
has to be taken with a grain of salt but I am starting to
believe that China is in deeper **** than we are and may be
on the verge of an economic collapse.

The Chinese government is not exactly forthcoming in what
their economic situation really is and the few "leaks"
that emerge from Chinese citizens do not paint a
rosy picture.

If the USA really clamps down on its reliance on Chinese
manufactured items (as it should) the Chinese economy
could be in for a free-fall. If it does, there's no
turning back. The Chinese Communist government opened
a Pandora's box about 30 years ago when they started
embracing their government controlled version of
capitalism and "free markets". Once a significant
portion of their population start benefiting from
this, there's no way to close the Pandora's box
again.


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On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 08:09:02 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

If the USA really clamps down on its reliance on Chinese
manufactured items (as it should) the Chinese economy
could be in for a free-fall. If it does, there's no
turning back. The Chinese Communist government opened
a Pandora's box about 30 years ago when they started
embracing their government controlled version of
capitalism and "free markets". Once a significant
portion of their population start benefiting from
this, there's no way to close the Pandora's box
again.

===

It's important to remember that the western world has become more or
less addicted to buying cheap manufactured goods from China. That is
a major reason why we have enjoyed low inflation for the last 30 years
or so. China has become the low cost producer for just about
everything we consume and it will be extremely difficult to unwind
that without major disruptions to our economy and standard of living.
China has many millions of people willing to work at low wage factory
jobs and we do not.

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On Wed, 01 Apr 2020 11:45:20 -0400,
wrote:

On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 08:09:02 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

If the USA really clamps down on its reliance on Chinese
manufactured items (as it should) the Chinese economy
could be in for a free-fall. If it does, there's no
turning back. The Chinese Communist government opened
a Pandora's box about 30 years ago when they started
embracing their government controlled version of
capitalism and "free markets". Once a significant
portion of their population start benefiting from
this, there's no way to close the Pandora's box
again.

===

It's important to remember that the western world has become more or
less addicted to buying cheap manufactured goods from China. That is
a major reason why we have enjoyed low inflation for the last 30 years
or so. China has become the low cost producer for just about
everything we consume and it will be extremely difficult to unwind
that without major disruptions to our economy and standard of living.
China has many millions of people willing to work at low wage factory
jobs and we do not.

China's form of government and culture makes it easier for them to
tell their people to suck it up and get back to work. I think they
still have a much worse Covid problem than they are willing to admit
but it is also easier for them to isolate the cases and protect the
factories. They also have a lot more control over the news. You don't
have anyone on TV there saying Xi is an incompetent fool or that their
situation is being mishandled. It is easier for the average coolie to
think all that can be done is being done.

On 4/1/2020 1:35 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 01 Apr 2020 11:45:20 -0400,
wrote:

On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 08:09:02 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

If the USA really clamps down on its reliance on Chinese
manufactured items (as it should) the Chinese economy
could be in for a free-fall. If it does, there's no
turning back. The Chinese Communist government opened
a Pandora's box about 30 years ago when they started
embracing their government controlled version of
capitalism and "free markets". Once a significant
portion of their population start benefiting from
this, there's no way to close the Pandora's box
again.

===

It's important to remember that the western world has become more or
less addicted to buying cheap manufactured goods from China. That is
a major reason why we have enjoyed low inflation for the last 30 years
or so. China has become the low cost producer for just about
everything we consume and it will be extremely difficult to unwind
that without major disruptions to our economy and standard of living.
China has many millions of people willing to work at low wage factory
jobs and we do not.

China's form of government and culture makes it easier for them to
tell their people to suck it up and get back to work. I think they
still have a much worse Covid problem than they are willing to admit
but it is also easier for them to isolate the cases and protect the
factories. They also have a lot more control over the news. You don't
have anyone on TV there saying Xi is an incompetent fool or that their
situation is being mishandled. It is easier for the average coolie to
think all that can be done is being done.



There have been reports (true or not?) that leaks by people
within China indicates the real death toll there so far
exceeds 84,000.



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On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 13:46:54 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 4/1/2020 1:35 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 01 Apr 2020 11:45:20 -0400,
wrote:

On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 08:09:02 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

If the USA really clamps down on its reliance on Chinese
manufactured items (as it should) the Chinese economy
could be in for a free-fall. If it does, there's no
turning back. The Chinese Communist government opened
a Pandora's box about 30 years ago when they started
embracing their government controlled version of
capitalism and "free markets". Once a significant
portion of their population start benefiting from
this, there's no way to close the Pandora's box
again.

===

It's important to remember that the western world has become more or
less addicted to buying cheap manufactured goods from China. That is
a major reason why we have enjoyed low inflation for the last 30 years
or so. China has become the low cost producer for just about
everything we consume and it will be extremely difficult to unwind
that without major disruptions to our economy and standard of living.
China has many millions of people willing to work at low wage factory
jobs and we do not.

China's form of government and culture makes it easier for them to
tell their people to suck it up and get back to work. I think they
still have a much worse Covid problem than they are willing to admit
but it is also easier for them to isolate the cases and protect the
factories. They also have a lot more control over the news. You don't
have anyone on TV there saying Xi is an incompetent fool or that their
situation is being mishandled. It is easier for the average coolie to
think all that can be done is being done.



There have been reports (true or not?) that leaks by people
within China indicates the real death toll there so far
exceeds 84,000.

Are we surprised. As I said when they declared the crisis was over.
they understand they have a business to run and they are going to get
back to work. What's a half a million dead people to them?
There are plenty more where they came from.
I do believe they are doing better at containing the infection but
guys walking around with AKs and clubs are far more effective than
people on TV saying "please stay home".

On 4/1/2020 4:43 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 13:46:54 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 4/1/2020 1:35 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 01 Apr 2020 11:45:20 -0400,
wrote:

On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 08:09:02 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

If the USA really clamps down on its reliance on Chinese
manufactured items (as it should) the Chinese economy
could be in for a free-fall. If it does, there's no
turning back. The Chinese Communist government opened
a Pandora's box about 30 years ago when they started
embracing their government controlled version of
capitalism and "free markets". Once a significant
portion of their population start benefiting from
this, there's no way to close the Pandora's box
again.

===

It's important to remember that the western world has become more or
less addicted to buying cheap manufactured goods from China. That is
a major reason why we have enjoyed low inflation for the last 30 years
or so. China has become the low cost producer for just about
everything we consume and it will be extremely difficult to unwind
that without major disruptions to our economy and standard of living.
China has many millions of people willing to work at low wage factory
jobs and we do not.

China's form of government and culture makes it easier for them to
tell their people to suck it up and get back to work. I think they
still have a much worse Covid problem than they are willing to admit
but it is also easier for them to isolate the cases and protect the
factories. They also have a lot more control over the news. You don't
have anyone on TV there saying Xi is an incompetent fool or that their
situation is being mishandled. It is easier for the average coolie to
think all that can be done is being done.



There have been reports (true or not?) that leaks by people
within China indicates the real death toll there so far
exceeds 84,000.

Are we surprised. As I said when they declared the crisis was over.
they understand they have a business to run and they are going to get
back to work. What's a half a million dead people to them?
There are plenty more where they came from.
I do believe they are doing better at containing the infection but
guys walking around with AKs and clubs are far more effective than
people on TV saying "please stay home".



LOL

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https://www.avg.com

On 4/1/20 1:35 PM, wrote:
You don't have anyone on TV there saying Xi is an incompetent fool or
that their
situation is being mishandled. It is easier for the average coolie to
think all that can be done is being done.

Trumpsters share that attribute.

On 4/1/20 11:45 AM, wrote:
On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 08:09:02 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

If the USA really clamps down on its reliance on Chinese
manufactured items (as it should) the Chinese economy
could be in for a free-fall. If it does, there's no
turning back. The Chinese Communist government opened
a Pandora's box about 30 years ago when they started
embracing their government controlled version of
capitalism and "free markets". Once a significant
portion of their population start benefiting from
this, there's no way to close the Pandora's box
again.

===

It's important to remember that the western world has become more or
less addicted to buying cheap manufactured goods from China. That is
a major reason why we have enjoyed low inflation for the last 30 years
or so. China has become the low cost producer for just about
everything we consume and it will be extremely difficult to unwind
that without major disruptions to our economy and standard of living.
China has many millions of people willing to work at low wage factory
jobs and we do not.


Corporations here offshored manufacturing to countries paying near-slave
wages and in the process increased their profit margins by hundreds of
percentage points on many items. American workers want decent wages and
benefits, and these are disappearing. You aren't going to see serious
levels of manufacturing that went offshore coming back here and, of
course, for the most part, we don't have the technology anymore to do
most of the work.

On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 13:39:59 -0400, Keyser Soze wrote:

On 4/1/20 11:45 AM, wrote:
On Wed, 1 Apr 2020 08:09:02 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

If the USA really clamps down on its reliance on Chinese
manufactured items (as it should) the Chinese economy
could be in for a free-fall. If it does, there's no
turning back. The Chinese Communist government opened
a Pandora's box about 30 years ago when they started
embracing their government controlled version of
capitalism and "free markets". Once a significant
portion of their population start benefiting from
this, there's no way to close the Pandora's box
again.

===

It's important to remember that the western world has become more or
less addicted to buying cheap manufactured goods from China. That is
a major reason why we have enjoyed low inflation for the last 30 years
or so. China has become the low cost producer for just about
everything we consume and it will be extremely difficult to unwind
that without major disruptions to our economy and standard of living.
China has many millions of people willing to work at low wage factory
jobs and we do not.


Corporations here offshored manufacturing to countries paying near-slave
wages and in the process increased their profit margins by hundreds of
percentage points on many items. American workers want decent wages and
benefits, and these are disappearing. You aren't going to see serious
levels of manufacturing that went offshore coming back here and, of
course, for the most part, we don't have the technology anymore to do
most of the work.

The American consumer is as much to blame as the corporations. They
are just giving us what we want. When there was a choice, in the 90s,
people voted with their wallets and bought the cheaper offshore goods
leaving the American made stuff sitting there. With no market for
American made stuff, the factories moved or closed. Clinton made it
financially advantageous with trade policies and multinational
agreements like NAFTA and GATT. We actually rewarded companies who
moved offshore.
We also accepted lower quality with that lower cost.
IBM (Gerstner) called it "Market Driven Quality". I still have the
hat.
http://gfretwell.com/electrical/mdq.jpg
They went from emulating Sony to emulating WalMart (absolutely true).
We went from quality circles and 6 sigma to "give nothing more than
they are willing to pay for". Unfortunately for guys like me, we found
out they were not willing to pay for quality and I was unwilling to do
a ****ty job.