Wow.

Abbot Labs has developed a super fast covid-19 test machine
that produces test results in 5 minutes.

They are shipping 50,000 of them a week.

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On 3/29/2020 5:47 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:

Wow.

Abbot Labs has developed a super fast covid-19 test machine
that produces test results in 5 minutes.

They are shipping 50,000 of them a week.



Whoops. Got that wrong. It's not 50K machines.

The machines they make use test kits that Abbot Labs makes.
The company will start shipping the test kits next week
and will be ramping up to 50K test kits a *day* (not a week).

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Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/29/2020 5:47 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:

Wow.

Abbot Labs has developed a super fast covid-19 test machine
that produces test results in 5 minutes.

They are shipping 50,000 of them a week.



Whoops.Â* Got that wrong.Â* It's not 50K machines.

The machines they make use test kits that Abbot Labs makes.
The company will start shipping the test kits next week
and will be ramping up to 50K test kits a *day* (not a week).


That's still a big achievement!

On 3/30/2020 7:12 PM, Alex wrote:
Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/29/2020 5:47 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:

Wow.

Abbot Labs has developed a super fast covid-19 test machine
that produces test results in 5 minutes.

They are shipping 50,000 of them a week.



Whoops.Â* Got that wrong.Â* It's not 50K machines.

The machines they make use test kits that Abbot Labs makes.
The company will start shipping the test kits next week
and will be ramping up to 50K test kits a *day* (not a week).


That's still a big achievement!



Could be life saving.

Hey, I have a question. Been busy with stuff today and
haven't paid a lot of attention to the latest covid-19
stuff.

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

Right now there are about 750K reported confirmed
cases world wide and about 37K deaths. Again,
that's world-wide.

If her predictions of 100k-200k deaths in the USA
by itself and under the best of conditions ...
that is mind-blowing.

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On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.


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On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 01:00:17 -0400,
wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.

American Experience has a show about the 1918 flu that is running on
my PBS station as we speak.

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 01:00:17 -0400,
wrote:

On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.

From the interweb

The estimated population of the United States on 1 July 1918 was some
103 million (Linder and Grove 1943), so approximately 0.5 percent of
the US population died as a result of the epidemic. Worldwide, the
death toll is generally put at 20 million.

On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.




A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.

Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.

I am not sure I buy the "models" the scientists use to make these
predictions. Seems like they apply current "data" to an algorithm
that is missing some components and may or may not be realistic.

A simple analogy:

Picture sitting in your car on a highway. From a stand-still
put the pedal to the metal and hold it there, never releasing it.

The car will soon reach a maximum rate of acceleration but as
speed increases the rate of acceleration declines until at
some point other factors prevent any further speed increase.

Using this analogy, sometimes I think the covid-19 experts who are using
data to create their models are like taking the peak acceleration rate
of the car and assuming that rate becomes a constant.

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https://www.avg.com

On 3/31/20 8:11 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.




A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.

Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.

Too bad Americans have a total incompetent in the White House who in his
every briefing demonstrates how little he knows, how little he cares,
and whose only real concern is the fall election. MAGA. Trump had that
pillow moron speaking at the briefing yesterday...the con man pillow man.

Trump introduced pillowman Mike Lindell as 'my friend,' and had him
speak at the podium set up in the White House Rose Garden Monday, in an
event that centered on the push for hospital equipment. Lindell, a
religious crackpot and drug addict, also spoke at CPAC.

'Boy do you sell those pillows it’s unbelievable what you do,' Trump
said, putting in a plug for the product that is a fixture in TV
advertisements, including on Fox News.

On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 08:11:25 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.




A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.

Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.

I am not sure I buy the "models" the scientists use to make these
predictions. Seems like they apply current "data" to an algorithm
that is missing some components and may or may not be realistic.

A simple analogy:

Picture sitting in your car on a highway. From a stand-still
put the pedal to the metal and hold it there, never releasing it.

The car will soon reach a maximum rate of acceleration but as
speed increases the rate of acceleration declines until at
some point other factors prevent any further speed increase.

Using this analogy, sometimes I think the covid-19 experts who are using
data to create their models are like taking the peak acceleration rate
of the car and assuming that rate becomes a constant.

Your flu numbers seem pretty low:

"This year's flu season is shaping up to be possibly less severe than the
2017-2018 season, when 61,000 deaths were linked to the virus. However, it could
equal or surpass the 2018-2019 season's 34,200 flu-related deaths."

https://www.health.com/condition/col...flu-every-year

I'm thinking the reverse, that the estimate of 100K-200K is the 'good behavior'
curve, and the 1M-2M number is the 'bad behavior' curve. The good folks seemed
kind of confusing with their numbers yesterday, but that's what I got out of it.
In other words, the 100K-200K number is the low end of the current curve, but
does not include any possible breakthroughs in treatment (cure?).
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