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Mr. Luddite[_4_]

On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.

Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?

===

USA

If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.

A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.

Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.

I am not sure I buy the "models" the scientists use to make these
predictions. Seems like they apply current "data" to an algorithm
that is missing some components and may or may not be realistic.

A simple analogy:

Picture sitting in your car on a highway. From a stand-still
put the pedal to the metal and hold it there, never releasing it.

The car will soon reach a maximum rate of acceleration but as
speed increases the rate of acceleration declines until at
some point other factors prevent any further speed increase.

Using this analogy, sometimes I think the covid-19 experts who are using
data to create their models are like taking the peak acceleration rate
of the car and assuming that rate becomes a constant.

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