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sobering study
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:
On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia University study believes exists *right now*. That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding 300,000 to that would give an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's hope Columbia U is wrong. On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'. I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea. -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
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