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#1
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:
This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
#2
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia University study believes exists *right now*. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
#3
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia University study believes exists *right now*. === What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported cases? -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
#5
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia University study believes exists *right now*. === What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported cases? Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today. You can read more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below. One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ... the study suggests: "Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order — some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months." Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d®i_id=116446437_nn_20200322 or: https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
#6
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
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#7
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On 3/22/2020 11:11 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/22/20 11:06 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number **** of people currently known to be carrying the virus.* Based on **** current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people **** in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments **** and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their **** controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the **** results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" **** and "severe controls".* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as **** the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June **** in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study.* It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia University study believes exists *right now*. === What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported cases? Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today.* You can read more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below. One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ...* the study suggests: "Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order — some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months." Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d®i_id=116446437_nn_20200322 or: https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb Not to worry...your Trump said the warmer weather will take care of Covoid-19. Right? No. He didn't. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
#8
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On 3/22/20 11:21 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/22/2020 11:11 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/22/20 11:06 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number **** of people currently known to be carrying the virus.* Based on **** current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people **** in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments **** and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their **** controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the **** results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" **** and "severe controls".* "Severe controls" becomes obvious as **** the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June **** in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study.* It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia University study believes exists *right now*. === What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported cases? Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today.* You can read more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below. One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ...* the study suggests: "Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order — some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months." Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d®i_id=116446437_nn_20200322 or: https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb Not to worry...your Trump said the warmer weather will take care of Covoid-19. Right? No.* He didn't. From Marke****ch: Trump told supporters at a rally in New Hampshire in early March that the virus will be gone by April, claiming that when temperatures rise, “the virus” will “miraculously” go away. Chinese President Xi Jinping has said the same, Trump said. The latest deadly coronavirus, eventually referenced as COVID-19, first emerged in China at the end of last year. “The virus that we’re talking about having to do, a lot of people think that goes away in April, with the heat, as the heat comes in, typically that will go away in April,” Trump repeated later to a group of governors. |
#9
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 11:11:00 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote: "Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half a tall order some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months." Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d®i_id=116446437_nn_20200322 or: https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb Not to worry...your Trump said the warmer weather will take care of Covoid-19. Right? === It's good to know that your inner arse'l is still functioning normally. We'd start to worry if you suddenly went normal on us. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
#10
posted to rec.boats
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sobering study
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 11:06:56 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:17 AM, wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote: On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: This morning I was reading some of the results from a study done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates. Highlights include: 1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it. 2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls" and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as the only means of beating this thing. 3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case. Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that if not brought under control medical facilities, especially in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies. Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old, who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they come in contact with at risk. Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something really drastic happens. Yes, it's getting scary quickly! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia University study believes exists *right now*. === What was their methodology for estimating the number of unreported cases? Wayne, the study was reported in the New York Times today. You can read more about it, the methodology, etc, at the link below. One thing I missed ... and this is even more scary ... the study suggests: "Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half a tall order some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months." Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?&te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_nn_20200322&campaign_id=9&instan ce_id=16976&segment_id=22540&user_id=dd7f8c99a5f94 a70971937d998bca33d®i_id=116446437_nn_20200322 or: https://tinyurl.com/wdvsqhb === Thanks. As best I can tell they inferred the number of unreported infections based on the rate of new infections spreading. Apparently they validated their assumptions with statistical methods and peer review. That's probably as good as it gets in the absence of wide spread testing. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
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