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amdx[_3_] August 10th 14 03:54 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 

I want to clarify the method used to calculate the value of S.S. When
taken at 62yrs vs 66yrs.


I'll assume the following benefits $1,500 at 62 and $2,049 at 66.

1500 x 1nn% = yy or one month benefit plus interest
yy x 1nn% = yy or two months benefit plus interest
…....
…....
yy x 1nn% =yy or 12 months benefit plus interest

yy minus taxes paid = new yy

repeat for 4 years and save yearly values


""I will use this calculator to do this.""
http://www.thecalculatorsite.com/fin...calculator.php


Using 8% annual growth compounded monthly.

year one $18,799 minus 15% = $15,979
year two $36,105 minus 15% = $30,689
year three $52,036 minus 15% = $44,231
year four $66,702 minus 15% = $56,697

$56,697 x 0.08% = $4,536*
$4,536 is the interest earned on four years of savings.

$1,500 x 12 mo = $18,000 Yearly Benefit at 62.

If I add $4,536* to $18,000 = $22,436
Benefit at 62 plus interested earned on 4 years of savings.

$2,049 x 12mo = $24,588 Benefit at 66

$24,588 - $22,436 = ($2,052)

So the 62yr benefit saved for four years plus interest is $2052 less
than 66 yr benefit.
Or you could make up the difference for about 20 years by spending
enough of the savings to be even. This has to be calculated to find
exactly how many years, but it's not simple.


Ok this is my first iteration.
I think 8% interest is optimistic.
I know I could add in COLA, but it goes into both so I think it's a wash.
What should I change?

Mikek




amdx[_3_] August 10th 14 09:30 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On 8/10/2014 10:22 AM, wrote:
On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 09:54:41 -0500, amdx wrote:


I want to clarify the method used to calculate the value of S.S. When
taken at 62yrs vs 66yrs.


I'll assume the following benefits $1,500 at 62 and $2,049 at 66.

1500 x 1nn% = yy or one month benefit plus interest
yy x 1nn% = yy or two months benefit plus interest
…....
…....
yy x 1nn% =yy or 12 months benefit plus interest

yy minus taxes paid = new yy

repeat for 4 years and save yearly values


""I will use this calculator to do this.""
http://www.thecalculatorsite.com/fin...calculator.php


Using 8% annual growth compounded monthly.

year one $18,799 minus 15% = $15,979
year two $36,105 minus 15% = $30,689
year three $52,036 minus 15% = $44,231
year four $66,702 minus 15% = $56,697

$56,697 x 0.08% = $4,536*
$4,536 is the interest earned on four years of savings.

$1,500 x 12 mo = $18,000 Yearly Benefit at 62.

If I add $4,536* to $18,000 = $22,436
Benefit at 62 plus interested earned on 4 years of savings.

$2,049 x 12mo = $24,588 Benefit at 66

$24,588 - $22,436 = ($2,052)

So the 62yr benefit saved for four years plus interest is $2052 less
than 66 yr benefit.
Or you could make up the difference for about 20 years by spending
enough of the savings to be even. This has to be calculated to find
exactly how many years, but it's not simple.


Ok this is my first iteration.
I think 8% interest is optimistic.
I know I could add in COLA, but it goes into both so I think it's a wash.
What should I change?

Mikek



All of these calculations assume SS will continue forever at the
current pace. (benefits ratio, COLAs, tax treatment etc)

That's about all we can do, my crystal ball works great except when
I use it to predict the future.

It is clear that there is a move to "reform" the program and that
means reduced benefits somewhere.
The last "reform" started taxing 85% of the benefits at normal tax
rates for anyone who has any other significant income.
Taking your required withdrawals from your 401k will put most people
over this threshold. A pension is a slam dunk.

I just hope they don't means test or asset test.
I suspect if you earned it and saved it, they'll find a way
to get it.
Mikek


---
This email is free from viruses and malware because avast! Antivirus protection is active.
http://www.avast.com


Wayne.B August 11th 14 03:10 AM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 21:13:01 -0400, BAR wrote:

The idea that the money in your 401k will be taxed at a lower rate
than when you were working is a joke.

SS is going to be a means tested welfare program.


There is nothing stopping you from pulling money out of your 401k/IRA
when you are 59 1/2 and investing it in other investment vehicles.


===

What stops you is having all of your funds become immediately taxable.
You're far better off to let your returns roll forward untaxed until
you withdraw them. I'm personally of the opinion that it is better to
roll 401K money into an IRA however. An IRA usually offers lower
fees and a wider choice of investments.

Wayne.B August 11th 14 03:12 AM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 21:22:22 -0400, BAR wrote:

That equates to
70,000,000 people with nothing else to do by yell and scream and vote to
keept the SS retirement they earned


===

As well they should.

Wayne.B August 11th 14 04:24 AM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 23:03:33 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 22:12:56 -0400, Wayne.B
wrote:

On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 21:22:22 -0400, BAR wrote:

That equates to
70,000,000 people with nothing else to do by yell and scream and vote to
keept the SS retirement they earned


===

As well they should.


That didn't stop congress from taxing social security in the 80s

That is the second time that money was taxed. You paid on it when they
collected it too.

I still think we ain't seen nothin yet. As the Ponzi character of
SS/Medicare starts becoming obvious to even the most rabid of bleeding
heart liberals, they will take it out on anyone they think does not
"need" it, no matter how much we put in.
I bet a couple making anywhere near $100k in retirement will have most
if not all of their SS completely taxed away.


===

We'll see.

There are a lot more senior citizens now than there were in the 80s,
and we are organized, and we vote. I think it would be political
suicide for anyone trying to increase SS taxes beyond today's onerous
levels.

At least I don't have New York and New Jersey reaching into my pocket
anymore, and our property taxes are only 25% of what we used to pay in
the NY 'burbs. Dockage is cheaper also. :-)

Wayne.B August 11th 14 04:51 AM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 23:36:29 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 23:24:15 -0400, Wayne.B
wrote:

We'll see.

There are a lot more senior citizens now than there were in the 80s,
and we are organized, and we vote. I think it would be political
suicide for anyone trying to increase SS taxes beyond today's onerous
levels.

At least I don't have New York and New Jersey reaching into my pocket
anymore, and our property taxes are only 25% of what we used to pay in
the NY 'burbs. Dockage is cheaper also. :-)


It all depends on whether the kids start voting their interests.
When their FICA taxes start being more than their income tax, they
might wake up. For some it is more now, they just don't know because
Sammy takes it before they see their check.


===

Isn't it true that the people with good jobs are very much a minority?

The government will eventually "fix" social security by either
fudging the cost of living calculations or eliminating COLA entirely.
That will be followed by a round of hyper inflation. The "official"
rate of inflation is already being fudged a great deal, and hyper
inflation with a weak dollar is the inevitable consequence of long
term defecit spending.

Califbill August 11th 14 05:41 AM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
Wayne.B wrote:
On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 21:22:22 -0400, BAR wrote:

That equates to
70,000,000 people with nothing else to do by yell and scream and vote to
keept the SS retirement they earned


===

As well they should.


But a lot of those SS people did not put in anywhere enough to pay for an
insurance and annuity policy. Was not the national retirement act. Was
the widows and children's act. To keep them from starving. Was LBJ who
raised the vig and the payouts to pay for an unfunded war. So we are still
paying for SEA.

Califbill August 11th 14 05:41 AM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
BAR wrote:
In article ,
says...

On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 15:30:01 -0500, amdx wrote:

On 8/10/2014 10:22 AM,
wrote:
On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 09:54:41 -0500, amdx wrote:


I want to clarify the method used to calculate the value of S.S. When
taken at 62yrs vs 66yrs.


I'll assume the following benefits $1,500 at 62 and $2,049 at 66.

1500 x 1nn% = yy or one month benefit plus interest
yy x 1nn% = yy or two months benefit plus interest
?....
?....
yy x 1nn% =yy or 12 months benefit plus interest

yy minus taxes paid = new yy

repeat for 4 years and save yearly values


""I will use this calculator to do this.""
http://www.thecalculatorsite.com/fin...calculator.php


Using 8% annual growth compounded monthly.

year one $18,799 minus 15% = $15,979
year two $36,105 minus 15% = $30,689
year three $52,036 minus 15% = $44,231
year four $66,702 minus 15% = $56,697

$56,697 x 0.08% = $4,536*
$4,536 is the interest earned on four years of savings.

$1,500 x 12 mo = $18,000 Yearly Benefit at 62.

If I add $4,536* to $18,000 = $22,436
Benefit at 62 plus interested earned on 4 years of savings.

$2,049 x 12mo = $24,588 Benefit at 66

$24,588 - $22,436 = ($2,052)

So the 62yr benefit saved for four years plus interest is $2052 less
than 66 yr benefit.
Or you could make up the difference for about 20 years by spending
enough of the savings to be even. This has to be calculated to find
exactly how many years, but it's not simple.


Ok this is my first iteration.
I think 8% interest is optimistic.
I know I could add in COLA, but it goes into both so I think it's a wash.
What should I change?

Mikek



All of these calculations assume SS will continue forever at the
current pace. (benefits ratio, COLAs, tax treatment etc)

That's about all we can do, my crystal ball works great except when
I use it to predict the future.

It is clear that there is a move to "reform" the program and that
means reduced benefits somewhere.
The last "reform" started taxing 85% of the benefits at normal tax
rates for anyone who has any other significant income.
Taking your required withdrawals from your 401k will put most people
over this threshold. A pension is a slam dunk.

I just hope they don't means test or asset test.
I suspect if you earned it and saved it, they'll find a way
to get it.
Mikek



Count on it. The millennials are going to throw grandma from the
(gravy) train as soon as they figure out how to vote.
The idea that the money in your 401k will be taxed at a lower rate
than when you were working is a joke.

SS is going to be a means tested welfare program.


There is nothing stopping you from pulling money out of your 401k/IRA
when you are 59 1/2 and investing it in other investment vehicles.


You pay taxes now or later. I go later. And all my 401k's are now IRAs.

Wayne.B August 11th 14 02:23 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On Mon, 11 Aug 2014 09:06:51 -0400, wrote:

The housing bubble and the dot com bubble were just a sneak peak at
the debt and phony money bubble we have coming. It might happen as
soon as Warren Buffett dies and they try to liquidate Berkshire
Hathaway for charity as he promised.


===

The charities will not "liquidate" Berkshire Hathaway by selling off
the holdings. They will divvy up the stock shares and keep most of
them for the income stream, just like Warren does. The stocks are not
just paper, they represent actual ownership of some darn good
companies and a claim on their earnings and free cash flow.

F.O.A.D. August 11th 14 02:44 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
wrote:
On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 23:51:40 -0400, Wayne.B
wrote:

On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 23:36:29 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 23:24:15 -0400, Wayne.B
wrote:

We'll see.

There are a lot more senior citizens now than there were in the 80s,
and we are organized, and we vote. I think it would be political
suicide for anyone trying to increase SS taxes beyond today's onerous
levels.

At least I don't have New York and New Jersey reaching into my pocket
anymore, and our property taxes are only 25% of what we used to pay in
the NY 'burbs. Dockage is cheaper also. :-)

It all depends on whether the kids start voting their interests.
When their FICA taxes start being more than their income tax, they
might wake up. For some it is more now, they just don't know because
Sammy takes it before they see their check.


===

Isn't it true that the people with good jobs are very much a minority?

The government will eventually "fix" social security by either
fudging the cost of living calculations or eliminating COLA entirely.
That will be followed by a round of hyper inflation. The "official"
rate of inflation is already being fudged a great deal, and hyper
inflation with a weak dollar is the inevitable consequence of long
term defecit spending.


I think the whole concept of SS/Pensions is in for a reality shock. No
matter how you slice it, you can't have as many people "retired" as
the demographics predict. We are already seeing the SS problem since
it is upside down for the first time in history. The supporters are
simply in denial about that. The next shoe to drop will be the effect
on the equities market when the boomers start drawing down their 401ks
and spending that money. That is money that will leave the market and
will not be back.
The Fed can't keep printing money out of thin air forever too cover
our debt and to keep investment growing.
I think that is why we have the 1% now. If those people actually tried
to spend some of those unrealized capital gains Harry is so mad that
they have, the whole house of cards would collapse. They keep the
market going with money they will never take out and spend.
Most of that money is just an illusion, numbers in a computer
representing nothing and simply making it look like we are prosperous
as a whole.

The housing bubble and the dot com bubble were just a sneak peak at
the debt and phony money bubble we have coming. It might happen as
soon as Warren Buffett dies and they try to liquidate Berkshire
Hathaway for charity as he promised.


You should change your handle to Mr. Apocalypse. 😳

--
Posted from my iPhone

F.O.A.D. August 11th 14 06:20 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
wrote:
On 11 Aug 2014 13:44:42 GMT, F.O.A.D. wrote:


You should change your handle to Mr. Apocalypse. ?


I heard the same thing when I was predicting the housing crash.


You seem to revel in it. 😧
--
Posted from my iPhone

Earl[_94_] August 12th 14 01:17 AM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
wrote:
On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 15:30:01 -0500, amdx wrote:

On 8/10/2014 10:22 AM,
wrote:
On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 09:54:41 -0500, amdx wrote:

I want to clarify the method used to calculate the value of S.S. When
taken at 62yrs vs 66yrs.


I'll assume the following benefits $1,500 at 62 and $2,049 at 66.

1500 x 1nn% = yy or one month benefit plus interest
yy x 1nn% = yy or two months benefit plus interest
…....
…....
yy x 1nn% =yy or 12 months benefit plus interest

yy minus taxes paid = new yy

repeat for 4 years and save yearly values


""I will use this calculator to do this.""
http://www.thecalculatorsite.com/fin...calculator.php


Using 8% annual growth compounded monthly.

year one $18,799 minus 15% = $15,979
year two $36,105 minus 15% = $30,689
year three $52,036 minus 15% = $44,231
year four $66,702 minus 15% = $56,697

$56,697 x 0.08% = $4,536*
$4,536 is the interest earned on four years of savings.

$1,500 x 12 mo = $18,000 Yearly Benefit at 62.

If I add $4,536* to $18,000 = $22,436
Benefit at 62 plus interested earned on 4 years of savings.

$2,049 x 12mo = $24,588 Benefit at 66

$24,588 - $22,436 = ($2,052)

So the 62yr benefit saved for four years plus interest is $2052 less
than 66 yr benefit.
Or you could make up the difference for about 20 years by spending
enough of the savings to be even. This has to be calculated to find
exactly how many years, but it's not simple.


Ok this is my first iteration.
I think 8% interest is optimistic.
I know I could add in COLA, but it goes into both so I think it's a wash.
What should I change?

Mikek


All of these calculations assume SS will continue forever at the
current pace. (benefits ratio, COLAs, tax treatment etc)

That's about all we can do, my crystal ball works great except when
I use it to predict the future.

It is clear that there is a move to "reform" the program and that
means reduced benefits somewhere.
The last "reform" started taxing 85% of the benefits at normal tax
rates for anyone who has any other significant income.
Taking your required withdrawals from your 401k will put most people
over this threshold. A pension is a slam dunk.

I just hope they don't means test or asset test.
I suspect if you earned it and saved it, they'll find a way
to get it.
Mikek


Count on it. The millennials are going to throw grandma from the
(gravy) train as soon as they figure out how to vote.
The idea that the money in your 401k will be taxed at a lower rate
than when you were working is a joke.

SS is going to be a means tested welfare program.

This is funny no matter what side you're on...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9pqmW-D14I


Wayne.B August 12th 14 05:35 AM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On Mon, 11 Aug 2014 13:16:58 -0400, wrote:

The stocks are not
just paper, they represent actual ownership of some darn good
companies and a claim on their earnings and free cash flow.


I know that is the theory but there is a lot of air under most of the
stock prices these days.This has a certain Ponzi aspect too. As long
as more money coming in than is taken out, it does OK.
If there is a significant net loss of money coming into the market it
will crash pretty fast.


===

You're entitled to your opinion of course, and there are no doubt some
over inflated companies out there along with a handfull of outright
frauds not yet discovered. On the other hand there are also some
real captains of industry who make real products and sell them
worldwide. I'm thinking of names like GE, IBM, Intel, Apple, Cisco,
etc. These are companies that not only make solid products and sell
them well, but they also have provable positive cash flows and pay
dividends. There are many others of course, and there are also many
companies in sectors such as energy and transportation with very solid
fundamentals and positive cash flows. Cash flow is a good indicator
because it is real, easy to measure and not easily subject to
accounting slight of hand.

Califbill August 12th 14 07:07 AM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
Wayne.B wrote:
On Mon, 11 Aug 2014 13:16:58 -0400, wrote:

The stocks are not
just paper, they represent actual ownership of some darn good
companies and a claim on their earnings and free cash flow.


I know that is the theory but there is a lot of air under most of the
stock prices these days.This has a certain Ponzi aspect too. As long
as more money coming in than is taken out, it does OK.
If there is a significant net loss of money coming into the market it
will crash pretty fast.


===

You're entitled to your opinion of course, and there are no doubt some
over inflated companies out there along with a handfull of outright
frauds not yet discovered. On the other hand there are also some
real captains of industry who make real products and sell them
worldwide. I'm thinking of names like GE, IBM, Intel, Apple, Cisco,
etc. These are companies that not only make solid products and sell
them well, but they also have provable positive cash flows and pay
dividends. There are many others of course, and there are also many
companies in sectors such as energy and transportation with very solid
fundamentals and positive cash flows. Cash flow is a good indicator
because it is real, easy to measure and not easily subject to
accounting slight of hand.


Probably a lot more over inflated than is healthy. Like during the
dot.bomb when Cisco was $80. My co workers were telling me to buy at that
price. Where i was saying it was an $18-25 company. Where I screwed up
when getting laid off at TI was not taking my options money and buying
Cisco puts. They were Canceling semiconductor orders right and left.
Where do you invest are the current time. Banks are paying 0point zip.
Bonds are a looming disaster. With any bump in the interest rate bonds
present value will tank. The administration is pretty much driving the
market, via zero interest rates, and trillions of faux money.

Wayne.B August 12th 14 01:12 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 02:23:59 -0400, wrote:

if you have 30 million boomers liquidating their 401ks


===

I don't think liquidate is the right description. Those who have
made good investment decisions can do well with the just dividend
stream and capital gains, leaving the principal amount mostly
untouched.

amdx[_3_] August 12th 14 01:59 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On 8/10/2014 11:41 PM, Califbill wrote:
BAR wrote:
In article ,
says...

On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 15:30:01 -0500, amdx wrote:

On 8/10/2014 10:22 AM,
wrote:
On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 09:54:41 -0500, amdx wrote:


I want to clarify the method used to calculate the value of S.S. When
taken at 62yrs vs 66yrs.


I'll assume the following benefits $1,500 at 62 and $2,049 at 66.

1500 x 1nn% = yy or one month benefit plus interest
yy x 1nn% = yy or two months benefit plus interest
?....
?....
yy x 1nn% =yy or 12 months benefit plus interest

yy minus taxes paid = new yy

repeat for 4 years and save yearly values


""I will use this calculator to do this.""
http://www.thecalculatorsite.com/fin...calculator.php


Using 8% annual growth compounded monthly.

year one $18,799 minus 15% = $15,979
year two $36,105 minus 15% = $30,689
year three $52,036 minus 15% = $44,231
year four $66,702 minus 15% = $56,697

$56,697 x 0.08% = $4,536*
$4,536 is the interest earned on four years of savings.

$1,500 x 12 mo = $18,000 Yearly Benefit at 62.

If I add $4,536* to $18,000 = $22,436
Benefit at 62 plus interested earned on 4 years of savings.

$2,049 x 12mo = $24,588 Benefit at 66

$24,588 - $22,436 = ($2,052)

So the 62yr benefit saved for four years plus interest is $2052 less
than 66 yr benefit.
Or you could make up the difference for about 20 years by spending
enough of the savings to be even. This has to be calculated to find
exactly how many years, but it's not simple.


Ok this is my first iteration.
I think 8% interest is optimistic.
I know I could add in COLA, but it goes into both so I think it's a wash.
What should I change?

Mikek



All of these calculations assume SS will continue forever at the
current pace. (benefits ratio, COLAs, tax treatment etc)

That's about all we can do, my crystal ball works great except when
I use it to predict the future.

It is clear that there is a move to "reform" the program and that
means reduced benefits somewhere.
The last "reform" started taxing 85% of the benefits at normal tax
rates for anyone who has any other significant income.
Taking your required withdrawals from your 401k will put most people
over this threshold. A pension is a slam dunk.

I just hope they don't means test or asset test.
I suspect if you earned it and saved it, they'll find a way
to get it.
Mikek


Count on it. The millennials are going to throw grandma from the
(gravy) train as soon as they figure out how to vote.
The idea that the money in your 401k will be taxed at a lower rate
than when you were working is a joke.

SS is going to be a means tested welfare program.


There is nothing stopping you from pulling money out of your 401k/IRA
when you are 59 1/2 and investing it in other investment vehicles.


You pay taxes now or later. I go later. And all my 401k's are now IRAs.

Just a note:
Many accountants think that tax rates will be higher in the future
because of the huge debt we have. Because of this they are suggesting
Roth IRAs instead of the traditional tax deductible IRA.
Mikek

F.O.A.D. August 12th 14 03:49 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On 8/12/14, 8:59 AM, amdx wrote:
On 8/10/2014 11:41 PM, Califbill wrote:
BAR wrote:
In article ,
says...

On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 15:30:01 -0500, amdx wrote:

On 8/10/2014 10:22 AM,
wrote:
On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 09:54:41 -0500, amdx wrote:


I want to clarify the method used to calculate the value of
S.S. When
taken at 62yrs vs 66yrs.


I'll assume the following benefits $1,500 at 62 and $2,049 at 66.

1500 x 1nn% = yy or one month benefit plus interest
yy x 1nn% = yy or two months benefit plus interest
?....
?....
yy x 1nn% =yy or 12 months benefit plus interest

yy minus taxes paid = new yy

repeat for 4 years and save yearly values


""I will use this calculator to do this.""
http://www.thecalculatorsite.com/fin...calculator.php



Using 8% annual growth compounded monthly.

year one $18,799 minus 15% = $15,979
year two $36,105 minus 15% = $30,689
year three $52,036 minus 15% = $44,231
year four $66,702 minus 15% = $56,697

$56,697 x 0.08% = $4,536*
$4,536 is the interest earned on four years of savings.

$1,500 x 12 mo = $18,000 Yearly Benefit at 62.

If I add $4,536* to $18,000 = $22,436
Benefit at 62 plus interested earned on 4 years of savings.

$2,049 x 12mo = $24,588 Benefit at 66

$24,588 - $22,436 = ($2,052)

So the 62yr benefit saved for four years plus interest is $2052 less
than 66 yr benefit.
Or you could make up the difference for about 20 years by
spending
enough of the savings to be even. This has to be calculated to find
exactly how many years, but it's not simple.


Ok this is my first iteration.
I think 8% interest is optimistic.
I know I could add in COLA, but it goes into both so I think it's
a wash.
What should I change?

Mikek



All of these calculations assume SS will continue forever at the
current pace. (benefits ratio, COLAs, tax treatment etc)

That's about all we can do, my crystal ball works great except when
I use it to predict the future.

It is clear that there is a move to "reform" the program and that
means reduced benefits somewhere.
The last "reform" started taxing 85% of the benefits at normal tax
rates for anyone who has any other significant income.
Taking your required withdrawals from your 401k will put most people
over this threshold. A pension is a slam dunk.

I just hope they don't means test or asset test.
I suspect if you earned it and saved it, they'll find a way
to get it.
Mikek


Count on it. The millennials are going to throw grandma from the
(gravy) train as soon as they figure out how to vote.
The idea that the money in your 401k will be taxed at a lower rate
than when you were working is a joke.

SS is going to be a means tested welfare program.

There is nothing stopping you from pulling money out of your 401k/IRA
when you are 59 1/2 and investing it in other investment vehicles.


You pay taxes now or later. I go later. And all my 401k's are now IRAs.

Just a note:
Many accountants think that tax rates will be higher in the future
because of the huge debt we have. Because of this they are suggesting
Roth IRAs instead of the traditional tax deductible IRA.
Mikek



So your accountants think the tax codes on the various forms of IRAs
can't change? :)

True North[_2_] August 12th 14 04:12 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On Tuesday, 12 August 2014 11:33:16 UTC-3, wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 07:59:23 -0500, amdx wrote:





Just a note:


Many accountants think that tax rates will be higher in the future


because of the huge debt we have. Because of this they are suggesting


Roth IRAs instead of the traditional tax deductible IRA.


Mikek




That assumes the government would not change the tax code on a Roth. I

am old enough to remember when they said Social Security would never

be taxed ... because you already paid taxes on that money ... just

like a Roth.

When it comes to the government ****ing you, just plan on it.


Wow!
We pay both federal and provincial income tax on anything over our basic exemption, which is around 11k and another $2K if on pension plus I get another $7K because I turn 65 this month.
After that everything is taxed at the rate of the income category you fall in... and yes that's all pensions, interest received on investments, monies taken out of RRSPs etc.

Y'all have been spoiled down there and the chickens are coming home to roost.

H*a*r*r*o*l*d August 12th 14 04:13 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On 8/12/2014 8:49 AM, F.O.A.D. wrote:
On 8/12/14, 8:59 AM, amdx wrote:
On 8/10/2014 11:41 PM, Califbill wrote:
BAR wrote:
In article ,
says...

On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 15:30:01 -0500, amdx wrote:

On 8/10/2014 10:22 AM,
wrote:
On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 09:54:41 -0500, amdx wrote:


I want to clarify the method used to calculate the value of
S.S. When
taken at 62yrs vs 66yrs.


I'll assume the following benefits $1,500 at 62 and $2,049 at
66.

1500 x 1nn% = yy or one month benefit plus interest
yy x 1nn% = yy or two months benefit plus interest
?....
?....
yy x 1nn% =yy or 12 months benefit plus interest

yy minus taxes paid = new yy

repeat for 4 years and save yearly values


""I will use this calculator to do this.""
http://www.thecalculatorsite.com/fin...calculator.php




Using 8% annual growth compounded monthly.

year one $18,799 minus 15% = $15,979
year two $36,105 minus 15% = $30,689
year three $52,036 minus 15% = $44,231
year four $66,702 minus 15% = $56,697

$56,697 x 0.08% = $4,536*
$4,536 is the interest earned on four years of savings.

$1,500 x 12 mo = $18,000 Yearly Benefit at 62.

If I add $4,536* to $18,000 = $22,436
Benefit at 62 plus interested earned on 4 years of savings.

$2,049 x 12mo = $24,588 Benefit at 66

$24,588 - $22,436 = ($2,052)

So the 62yr benefit saved for four years plus interest is $2052
less
than 66 yr benefit.
Or you could make up the difference for about 20 years by
spending
enough of the savings to be even. This has to be calculated to find
exactly how many years, but it's not simple.


Ok this is my first iteration.
I think 8% interest is optimistic.
I know I could add in COLA, but it goes into both so I think it's
a wash.
What should I change?

Mikek



All of these calculations assume SS will continue forever at the
current pace. (benefits ratio, COLAs, tax treatment etc)

That's about all we can do, my crystal ball works great except
when
I use it to predict the future.

It is clear that there is a move to "reform" the program and that
means reduced benefits somewhere.
The last "reform" started taxing 85% of the benefits at normal tax
rates for anyone who has any other significant income.
Taking your required withdrawals from your 401k will put most people
over this threshold. A pension is a slam dunk.

I just hope they don't means test or asset test.
I suspect if you earned it and saved it, they'll find a way
to get it.
Mikek


Count on it. The millennials are going to throw grandma from the
(gravy) train as soon as they figure out how to vote.
The idea that the money in your 401k will be taxed at a lower rate
than when you were working is a joke.

SS is going to be a means tested welfare program.

There is nothing stopping you from pulling money out of your 401k/IRA
when you are 59 1/2 and investing it in other investment vehicles.

You pay taxes now or later. I go later. And all my 401k's are now
IRAs.

Just a note:
Many accountants think that tax rates will be higher in the future
because of the huge debt we have. Because of this they are suggesting
Roth IRAs instead of the traditional tax deductible IRA.
Mikek



So your accountants think the tax codes on the various forms of IRAs
can't change? :)


Taxes and tax codes are not subjects you should be discussing openly,
unless, of course, you would care to enlighten us on your tax
delinquencies and difficulties with the IRS and the courts.

--
"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the
government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of
taking care of them".
Thomas Jefferson

H*a*r*r*o*l*d August 12th 14 04:16 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On 8/12/2014 9:12 AM, True North wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 August 2014 11:33:16 UTC-3, wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 07:59:23 -0500, amdx wrote:





Just a note:


Many accountants think that tax rates will be higher in the future


because of the huge debt we have. Because of this they are suggesting


Roth IRAs instead of the traditional tax deductible IRA.


Mikek




That assumes the government would not change the tax code on a Roth. I

am old enough to remember when they said Social Security would never

be taxed ... because you already paid taxes on that money ... just

like a Roth.

When it comes to the government ****ing you, just plan on it.


Wow!
We pay both federal and provincial income tax on anything over our basic exemption, which is around 11k and another $2K if on pension plus I get another $7K because I turn 65 this month.
After that everything is taxed at the rate of the income category you fall in... and yes that's all pensions, interest received on investments, monies taken out of RRSPs etc.

Y'all have been spoiled down there and the chickens are coming home to roost.


No one is forcing you to stay there.

--
"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the
government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of
taking care of them".
Thomas Jefferson

F.O.A.D. August 12th 14 04:16 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
True North wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 August 2014 11:33:16 UTC-3, wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 07:59:23 -0500, amdx wrote:





Just a note:


Many accountants think that tax rates will be higher in the future


because of the huge debt we have. Because of this they are suggesting


Roth IRAs instead of the traditional tax deductible IRA.


Mikek




That assumes the government would not change the tax code on a Roth. I

am old enough to remember when they said Social Security would never

be taxed ... because you already paid taxes on that money ... just

like a Roth.

When it comes to the government ****ing you, just plan on it.


Wow!
We pay both federal and provincial income tax on anything over our basic
exemption, which is around 11k and another $2K if on pension plus I get
another $7K because I turn 65 this month.
After that everything is taxed at the rate of the income category you
fall in... and yes that's all pensions, interest received on investments,
monies taken out of RRSPs etc.

Y'all have been spoiled down there and the chickens are coming home to roost.


You get something for it. We get military spending. ðŸ˜*
--
Posted from my iPhone

H*a*r*r*o*l*d August 12th 14 04:22 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On 8/12/2014 9:16 AM, F.O.A.D. wrote:
True North wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 August 2014 11:33:16 UTC-3, wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 07:59:23 -0500, amdx wrote:





Just a note:

Many accountants think that tax rates will be higher in the future

because of the huge debt we have. Because of this they are suggesting

Roth IRAs instead of the traditional tax deductible IRA.

Mikek



That assumes the government would not change the tax code on a Roth. I

am old enough to remember when they said Social Security would never

be taxed ... because you already paid taxes on that money ... just

like a Roth.

When it comes to the government ****ing you, just plan on it.


Wow!
We pay both federal and provincial income tax on anything over our basic
exemption, which is around 11k and another $2K if on pension plus I get
another $7K because I turn 65 this month.
After that everything is taxed at the rate of the income category you
fall in... and yes that's all pensions, interest received on investments,
monies taken out of RRSPs etc.

Y'all have been spoiled down there and the chickens are coming home to roost.


You get something for it. We get military spending. ðŸ˜*

Why don't yoU suggest to him that being a tax cheat is an honoUrable
endeavoUr. Works for YoU, eh?

--
"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the
government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of
taking care of them".
Thomas Jefferson

True North[_2_] August 12th 14 04:48 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On Tuesday, 12 August 2014 12:30:11 UTC-3, wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 08:12:35 -0700 (PDT), True North

wrote:



On Tuesday, 12 August 2014 11:33:16 UTC-3, wrote:


On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 07:59:23 -0500, amdx wrote:












Just a note:




Many accountants think that tax rates will be higher in the future




because of the huge debt we have. Because of this they are suggesting




Roth IRAs instead of the traditional tax deductible IRA.




Mikek








That assumes the government would not change the tax code on a Roth. I




am old enough to remember when they said Social Security would never




be taxed ... because you already paid taxes on that money ... just




like a Roth.




When it comes to the government ****ing you, just plan on it.




Wow!


We pay both federal and provincial income tax on anything over our basic exemption, which is around 11k and another $2K if on pension plus I get another $7K because I turn 65 this month.


After that everything is taxed at the rate of the income category you fall in... and yes that's all pensions, interest received on investments, monies taken out of RRSPs etc.




Y'all have been spoiled down there and the chickens are coming home to roost.




It sounds like you guys have as many debt problems as we do



http://www.fraserinstitute.org/resea...ent-Debt-2014/


Don't know how much I'd trust that 'right wing think tank'.. but yes, our federal and provincial governments have been spending like drunken sailors, and not properly addressing liabilities in public servant pensions.

Califbill August 12th 14 05:54 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
True North wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 August 2014 12:30:11 UTC-3, wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 08:12:35 -0700 (PDT), True North

wrote:



On Tuesday, 12 August 2014 11:33:16 UTC-3, wrote:


On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 07:59:23 -0500, amdx wrote:












Just a note:




Many accountants think that tax rates will be higher in the future




because of the huge debt we have. Because of this they are suggesting




Roth IRAs instead of the traditional tax deductible IRA.




Mikek








That assumes the government would not change the tax code on a Roth. I




am old enough to remember when they said Social Security would never




be taxed ... because you already paid taxes on that money ... just




like a Roth.




When it comes to the government ****ing you, just plan on it.




Wow!


We pay both federal and provincial income tax on anything over our
basic exemption, which is around 11k and another $2K if on pension plus
I get another $7K because I turn 65 this month.


After that everything is taxed at the rate of the income category you
fall in... and yes that's all pensions, interest received on
investments, monies taken out of RRSPs etc.




Y'all have been spoiled down there and the chickens are coming home to roost.




It sounds like you guys have as many debt problems as we do



http://www.fraserinstitute.org/resea...ent-Debt-2014/


Don't know how much I'd trust that 'right wing think tank'.. but yes, our
federal and provincial governments have been spending like drunken
sailors, and not properly addressing liabilities in public servant pensions.


Why are you worrying about public service pensions? You sate you were not
a government worker.

Califbill August 12th 14 05:54 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
True North wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 August 2014 11:33:16 UTC-3, wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 07:59:23 -0500, amdx wrote:





Just a note:


Many accountants think that tax rates will be higher in the future


because of the huge debt we have. Because of this they are suggesting


Roth IRAs instead of the traditional tax deductible IRA.


Mikek




That assumes the government would not change the tax code on a Roth. I

am old enough to remember when they said Social Security would never

be taxed ... because you already paid taxes on that money ... just

like a Roth.

When it comes to the government ****ing you, just plan on it.


Wow!
We pay both federal and provincial income tax on anything over our basic
exemption, which is around 11k and another $2K if on pension plus I get
another $7K because I turn 65 this month.
After that everything is taxed at the rate of the income category you
fall in... and yes that's all pensions, interest received on investments,
monies taken out of RRSPs etc.

Y'all have been spoiled down there and the chickens are coming home to roost.


No, you have been screwed up there. Those 18-25% VAT taxes, etc. to pay
for a crappy single payer health system, plus social programs. How much do
you think your health care costs you a year?

Califbill August 12th 14 05:54 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
amdx wrote:
On 8/10/2014 11:41 PM, Califbill wrote:
BAR wrote:
In article ,
says...

On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 15:30:01 -0500, amdx wrote:

On 8/10/2014 10:22 AM,
wrote:
On Sun, 10 Aug 2014 09:54:41 -0500, amdx wrote:


I want to clarify the method used to calculate the value of S.S. When
taken at 62yrs vs 66yrs.


I'll assume the following benefits $1,500 at 62 and $2,049 at 66.

1500 x 1nn% = yy or one month benefit plus interest
yy x 1nn% = yy or two months benefit plus interest
?....
?....
yy x 1nn% =yy or 12 months benefit plus interest

yy minus taxes paid = new yy

repeat for 4 years and save yearly values


""I will use this calculator to do this.""
http://www.thecalculatorsite.com/fin...calculator.php


Using 8% annual growth compounded monthly.

year one $18,799 minus 15% = $15,979
year two $36,105 minus 15% = $30,689
year three $52,036 minus 15% = $44,231
year four $66,702 minus 15% = $56,697

$56,697 x 0.08% = $4,536*
$4,536 is the interest earned on four years of savings.

$1,500 x 12 mo = $18,000 Yearly Benefit at 62.

If I add $4,536* to $18,000 = $22,436
Benefit at 62 plus interested earned on 4 years of savings.

$2,049 x 12mo = $24,588 Benefit at 66

$24,588 - $22,436 = ($2,052)

So the 62yr benefit saved for four years plus interest is $2052 less
than 66 yr benefit.
Or you could make up the difference for about 20 years by spending
enough of the savings to be even. This has to be calculated to find
exactly how many years, but it's not simple.


Ok this is my first iteration.
I think 8% interest is optimistic.
I know I could add in COLA, but it goes into both so I think it's a wash.
What should I change?

Mikek



All of these calculations assume SS will continue forever at the
current pace. (benefits ratio, COLAs, tax treatment etc)

That's about all we can do, my crystal ball works great except when
I use it to predict the future.

It is clear that there is a move to "reform" the program and that
means reduced benefits somewhere.
The last "reform" started taxing 85% of the benefits at normal tax
rates for anyone who has any other significant income.
Taking your required withdrawals from your 401k will put most people
over this threshold. A pension is a slam dunk.

I just hope they don't means test or asset test.
I suspect if you earned it and saved it, they'll find a way
to get it.
Mikek


Count on it. The millennials are going to throw grandma from the
(gravy) train as soon as they figure out how to vote.
The idea that the money in your 401k will be taxed at a lower rate
than when you were working is a joke.

SS is going to be a means tested welfare program.

There is nothing stopping you from pulling money out of your 401k/IRA
when you are 59 1/2 and investing it in other investment vehicles.


You pay taxes now or later. I go later. And all my 401k's are now IRAs.

Just a note:
Many accountants think that tax rates will be higher in the future
because of the huge debt we have. Because of this they are suggesting
Roth IRAs instead of the traditional tax deductible IRA.
Mikek


The problem with Roth IRA's is to move my traditional IRA's to Roth, I have
to give up 35-39% of the money up front. Even with increasing tax rates, I
doubt I can recover the differences in the rest of my life.

Califbill August 12th 14 05:54 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
Wayne.B wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 02:23:59 -0400, wrote:

if you have 30 million boomers liquidating their 401ks


===

I don't think liquidate is the right description. Those who have
made good investment decisions can do well with the just dividend
stream and capital gains, leaving the principal amount mostly
untouched.


The problem, is most of those retirees have little actual money / income.
So they will have to cash in the retirement accounts for living. I read
somewhere that the average savings of a 50 year is less the $50,000. They
are not going to get to the amount of savings by 66 to live off of the
dividend stream. In other words, most have made either bad investment
decisions, or saved little, or both. Those people who have driven around
in leased Bimmers and MB's and living the good life on current income are
probably a majority. Or they were lower income workers. Janitors, etc.

Earl[_94_] August 13th 14 12:59 AM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
True North wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 August 2014 11:33:16 UTC-3, wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 07:59:23 -0500, amdx wrote:





Just a note:
Many accountants think that tax rates will be higher in the future
because of the huge debt we have. Because of this they are suggesting
Roth IRAs instead of the traditional tax deductible IRA.
Mikek



That assumes the government would not change the tax code on a Roth. I

am old enough to remember when they said Social Security would never

be taxed ... because you already paid taxes on that money ... just

like a Roth.

When it comes to the government ****ing you, just plan on it.

Wow!
We pay both federal and provincial income tax on anything over our basic exemption, which is around 11k and another $2K if on pension plus I get another $7K because I turn 65 this month.
After that everything is taxed at the rate of the income category you fall in... and yes that's all pensions, interest received on investments, monies taken out of RRSPs etc.

Y'all have been spoiled down there and the chickens are coming home to roost.

An IRA is not a pension. It's money we paid for our retirement because
we can't count on our government to keep the money we paid into SS in
the "lockbox".



F.O.A.D. August 13th 14 01:25 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On 8/12/14, 2:19 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 11:54:17 -0500, Califbill
wrote:

Wayne.B wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 02:23:59 -0400,
wrote:

if you have 30 million boomers liquidating their 401ks

===

I don't think liquidate is the right description. Those who have
made good investment decisions can do well with the just dividend
stream and capital gains, leaving the principal amount mostly
untouched.


The problem, is most of those retirees have little actual money / income.
So they will have to cash in the retirement accounts for living. I read
somewhere that the average savings of a 50 year is less the $50,000. They
are not going to get to the amount of savings by 66 to live off of the
dividend stream. In other words, most have made either bad investment
decisions, or saved little, or both. Those people who have driven around
in leased Bimmers and MB's and living the good life on current income are
probably a majority. Or they were lower income workers. Janitors, etc.


That is my thinking and to make things worse, these people will be
selling into a bear market, just to pay the rent.
That is a perpetual motion market crash in the making. Every
correction will be pushed down farther than it normally would be by
these subsistence sellers.

OTOH the rich will certainly have the opportunity to get richer since
they can sit on the side lines with a big bag of money and scoop up
the bargains when they think they see a bottom.
You just have to be sure you are invested in a fund with large cash
reserves and hope it is enough to get them over the hard times without
selling off stocks to cover withdrawals.
For me, I am already starting to take my profits on this bubble market
we are looking at right now.
I think this bubble is going to pop.



It won't happen in my lifetime, but this country is headed for a real
revolution. Whether is is peaceful or violent will only be revealed in
the future. Corporationists, greed, banksters and the trend to find the
cheapest labor for everything means the death of the middle class and
the end of the possibility of lower income groups being able to fight
their way into it. No more decent jobs with benefits, eventually no more
Social Security, no more nothing for the vast majority of Americans
beyond bleak subsistence living. Municipal services being privatized,
jails privatized, police forces gearing up with assault vehicles and
weaponry, and ignorant Americans thinking illegal Central and South
American immigrants are the cause of civilization's decline. It's a
perfect scenario for heads on pikes of the Koch Brothers types and a
real restructuring of America.



True North[_2_] August 13th 14 01:41 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
Bertie says

"Donnie is proud of the fact that he worked for a Crown Corporation. Most
likely he was the janitor at Canada Post in Halifax. "


Yes and no, Bertie.
You're improving, now you are at least half right.

F.O.A.D. August 13th 14 01:50 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On 8/13/14, 8:41 AM, True North wrote:
Bertie says

"Donnie is proud of the fact that he worked for a Crown Corporation. Most
likely he was the janitor at Canada Post in Halifax. "


Yes and no, Bertie.
You're improving, now you are at least half right.


Bertie has been boatless for longer than any poster's "existence" on
rec.boats.

Mr. Luddite August 13th 14 02:18 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On 8/13/2014 8:25 AM, F.O.A.D. wrote:
On 8/12/14, 2:19 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 11:54:17 -0500, Califbill
wrote:

Wayne.B wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 02:23:59 -0400,
wrote:

if you have 30 million boomers liquidating their 401ks

===

I don't think liquidate is the right description. Those who have
made good investment decisions can do well with the just dividend
stream and capital gains, leaving the principal amount mostly
untouched.

The problem, is most of those retirees have little actual money /
income.
So they will have to cash in the retirement accounts for living. I read
somewhere that the average savings of a 50 year is less the $50,000.
They
are not going to get to the amount of savings by 66 to live off of the
dividend stream. In other words, most have made either bad investment
decisions, or saved little, or both. Those people who have driven
around
in leased Bimmers and MB's and living the good life on current income
are
probably a majority. Or they were lower income workers. Janitors, etc.


That is my thinking and to make things worse, these people will be
selling into a bear market, just to pay the rent.
That is a perpetual motion market crash in the making. Every
correction will be pushed down farther than it normally would be by
these subsistence sellers.

OTOH the rich will certainly have the opportunity to get richer since
they can sit on the side lines with a big bag of money and scoop up
the bargains when they think they see a bottom.
You just have to be sure you are invested in a fund with large cash
reserves and hope it is enough to get them over the hard times without
selling off stocks to cover withdrawals.
For me, I am already starting to take my profits on this bubble market
we are looking at right now.
I think this bubble is going to pop.



It won't happen in my lifetime, but this country is headed for a real
revolution. Whether is is peaceful or violent will only be revealed in
the future. Corporationists, greed, banksters and the trend to find the
cheapest labor for everything means the death of the middle class and
the end of the possibility of lower income groups being able to fight
their way into it. No more decent jobs with benefits, eventually no more
Social Security, no more nothing for the vast majority of Americans
beyond bleak subsistence living. Municipal services being privatized,
jails privatized, police forces gearing up with assault vehicles and
weaponry, and ignorant Americans thinking illegal Central and South
American immigrants are the cause of civilization's decline. It's a
perfect scenario for heads on pikes of the Koch Brothers types and a
real restructuring of America.



If history is a guide to the future a global conflict is likely ...
basically WWIII that will completely restructure how businesses operate
in the USA. It's inevitable.

Meanwhile, unskilled jobs will continue to decline. Higher education
will continue to be a prime prerequisite for those jobs that exist even
in small businesses. The days of expecting middle class wages and
enjoying a middle class lifestyle with nothing more than a high school
diploma are over.





H*a*r*r*o*l*d August 13th 14 02:30 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On 8/13/2014 6:25 AM, F.O.A.D. wrote:
On 8/12/14, 2:19 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 11:54:17 -0500, Califbill
wrote:

Wayne.B wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 02:23:59 -0400,
wrote:

if you have 30 million boomers liquidating their 401ks

===

I don't think liquidate is the right description. Those who have
made good investment decisions can do well with the just dividend
stream and capital gains, leaving the principal amount mostly
untouched.

The problem, is most of those retirees have little actual money /
income.
So they will have to cash in the retirement accounts for living. I read
somewhere that the average savings of a 50 year is less the $50,000.
They
are not going to get to the amount of savings by 66 to live off of the
dividend stream. In other words, most have made either bad investment
decisions, or saved little, or both. Those people who have driven
around
in leased Bimmers and MB's and living the good life on current income
are
probably a majority. Or they were lower income workers. Janitors, etc.


That is my thinking and to make things worse, these people will be
selling into a bear market, just to pay the rent.
That is a perpetual motion market crash in the making. Every
correction will be pushed down farther than it normally would be by
these subsistence sellers.

OTOH the rich will certainly have the opportunity to get richer since
they can sit on the side lines with a big bag of money and scoop up
the bargains when they think they see a bottom.
You just have to be sure you are invested in a fund with large cash
reserves and hope it is enough to get them over the hard times without
selling off stocks to cover withdrawals.
For me, I am already starting to take my profits on this bubble market
we are looking at right now.
I think this bubble is going to pop.



It won't happen in my lifetime, but this country is headed for a real
revolution. Whether is is peaceful or violent will only be revealed in
the future. Corporationists, greed, banksters and the trend to find the
cheapest labor for everything means the death of the middle class and
the end of the possibility of lower income groups being able to fight
their way into it. No more decent jobs with benefits, eventually no more
Social Security, no more nothing for the vast majority of Americans
beyond bleak subsistence living. Municipal services being privatized,
jails privatized, police forces gearing up with assault vehicles and
weaponry, and ignorant Americans thinking illegal Central and South
American immigrants are the cause of civilization's decline. It's a
perfect scenario for heads on pikes of the Koch Brothers types and a
real restructuring of America.


History will reveal that labor unions and the liberalization of America
will be the cause of death of the once greatest nation on earth.

--
"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the
government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of
taking care of them".
Thomas Jefferson

F.O.A.D. August 13th 14 02:50 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
"Mr. Luddite" wrote:
On 8/13/2014 8:25 AM, F.O.A.D. wrote:
On 8/12/14, 2:19 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 11:54:17 -0500, Califbill
wrote:

Wayne.B wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 02:23:59 -0400,
wrote:

if you have 30 million boomers liquidating their 401ks

===

I don't think liquidate is the right description. Those who have
made good investment decisions can do well with the just dividend
stream and capital gains, leaving the principal amount mostly
untouched.

The problem, is most of those retirees have little actual money /
income.
So they will have to cash in the retirement accounts for living. I read
somewhere that the average savings of a 50 year is less the $50,000.
They
are not going to get to the amount of savings by 66 to live off of the
dividend stream. In other words, most have made either bad investment
decisions, or saved little, or both. Those people who have driven
around
in leased Bimmers and MB's and living the good life on current income
are
probably a majority. Or they were lower income workers. Janitors, etc.

That is my thinking and to make things worse, these people will be
selling into a bear market, just to pay the rent.
That is a perpetual motion market crash in the making. Every
correction will be pushed down farther than it normally would be by
these subsistence sellers.

OTOH the rich will certainly have the opportunity to get richer since
they can sit on the side lines with a big bag of money and scoop up
the bargains when they think they see a bottom.
You just have to be sure you are invested in a fund with large cash
reserves and hope it is enough to get them over the hard times without
selling off stocks to cover withdrawals.
For me, I am already starting to take my profits on this bubble market
we are looking at right now.
I think this bubble is going to pop.



It won't happen in my lifetime, but this country is headed for a real
revolution. Whether is is peaceful or violent will only be revealed in
the future. Corporationists, greed, banksters and the trend to find the
cheapest labor for everything means the death of the middle class and
the end of the possibility of lower income groups being able to fight
their way into it. No more decent jobs with benefits, eventually no more
Social Security, no more nothing for the vast majority of Americans
beyond bleak subsistence living. Municipal services being privatized,
jails privatized, police forces gearing up with assault vehicles and
weaponry, and ignorant Americans thinking illegal Central and South
American immigrants are the cause of civilization's decline. It's a
perfect scenario for heads on pikes of the Koch Brothers types and a
real restructuring of America.



If history is a guide to the future a global conflict is likely ...
basically WWIII that will completely restructure how businesses operate
in the USA. It's inevitable.

Meanwhile, unskilled jobs will continue to decline. Higher education
will continue to be a prime prerequisite for those jobs that exist even
in small businesses. The days of expecting middle class wages and
enjoying a middle class lifestyle with nothing more than a high school diploma are over.


It isn't just "unskilled" jobs in decline in this country. We are headed
for a massive restructuring. Too much wealth is concentrated in the hands
of too few and it is getting worse.

--
Posted from my iPhone

Wayne.B August 13th 14 03:00 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On Wed, 13 Aug 2014 09:18:42 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

Meanwhile, unskilled jobs will continue to decline. Higher education
will continue to be a prime prerequisite for those jobs that exist even
in small businesses. The days of expecting middle class wages and
enjoying a middle class lifestyle with nothing more than a high school
diploma are over.



===

I understand your point and half agree with your conclusion. There's
no question that skills are the key to a good job and competetive
compensation but there will always be people who manage to acquire
those skills in non-traditional ways. Additionally, there are
certains skills that have almost always been acquired through on the
job training and hard work. I'm thinking specifically of contractors,
electricians, cabinet makers, finish carpenters, specialty welders,
small business owners, oil field workers, etc.

F.O.A.D. August 13th 14 05:17 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
wrote:
On Wed, 13 Aug 2014 10:00:58 -0400, Wayne.B
wrote:

On Wed, 13 Aug 2014 09:18:42 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

Meanwhile, unskilled jobs will continue to decline. Higher education
will continue to be a prime prerequisite for those jobs that exist even
in small businesses. The days of expecting middle class wages and
enjoying a middle class lifestyle with nothing more than a high school
diploma are over.



===

I understand your point and half agree with your conclusion. There's
no question that skills are the key to a good job and competetive
compensation but there will always be people who manage to acquire
those skills in non-traditional ways. Additionally, there are
certains skills that have almost always been acquired through on the
job training and hard work. I'm thinking specifically of contractors,
electricians, cabinet makers, finish carpenters, specialty welders,
small business owners, oil field workers, etc.


Harry is schizophrenic in this regard. On the one hand he touts
college for everyone and then he talks about how wonderful the
training is in the trade unions.

I tend to agree that some of the best job opportunities will lie in
the trades.


I know a lot of guys in skilled trades with four year college degrees.
--
Posted from my iPhone

F.O.A.D. August 13th 14 05:17 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
wrote:
On Wed, 13 Aug 2014 09:18:42 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:


If history is a guide to the future a global conflict is likely ...
basically WWIII that will completely restructure how businesses operate
in the USA. It's inevitable.

Meanwhile, unskilled jobs will continue to decline. Higher education
will continue to be a prime prerequisite for those jobs that exist even
in small businesses. The days of expecting middle class wages and
enjoying a middle class lifestyle with nothing more than a high school
diploma are over.


I am not really sure what those "college" jobs will be either. The
traditional job for a liberal arts major was middle management
somewhere. Without the "labor", you do not need that many managers.
Just like a lot of jobs, middle management and the infrastructure than
comes up around them, was replaced by computers.
Even before I left, IBM had stripped out several levels of management
completely. A lot of "offices" disappeared.
I agree educational requirements for jobs are higher but that is not
because the job demands that education, it is simply because there are
a glut of college educated people looking for a job.


As I said: revolution.
--
Posted from my iPhone

Mr. Luddite August 13th 14 05:37 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On 8/13/2014 9:50 AM, F.O.A.D. wrote:
"Mr. Luddite" wrote:
On 8/13/2014 8:25 AM, F.O.A.D. wrote:
On 8/12/14, 2:19 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 11:54:17 -0500, Califbill
wrote:

Wayne.B wrote:
On Tue, 12 Aug 2014 02:23:59 -0400,
wrote:

if you have 30 million boomers liquidating their 401ks

===

I don't think liquidate is the right description. Those who have
made good investment decisions can do well with the just dividend
stream and capital gains, leaving the principal amount mostly
untouched.

The problem, is most of those retirees have little actual money /
income.
So they will have to cash in the retirement accounts for living. I read
somewhere that the average savings of a 50 year is less the $50,000.
They
are not going to get to the amount of savings by 66 to live off of the
dividend stream. In other words, most have made either bad investment
decisions, or saved little, or both. Those people who have driven
around
in leased Bimmers and MB's and living the good life on current income
are
probably a majority. Or they were lower income workers. Janitors, etc.

That is my thinking and to make things worse, these people will be
selling into a bear market, just to pay the rent.
That is a perpetual motion market crash in the making. Every
correction will be pushed down farther than it normally would be by
these subsistence sellers.

OTOH the rich will certainly have the opportunity to get richer since
they can sit on the side lines with a big bag of money and scoop up
the bargains when they think they see a bottom.
You just have to be sure you are invested in a fund with large cash
reserves and hope it is enough to get them over the hard times without
selling off stocks to cover withdrawals.
For me, I am already starting to take my profits on this bubble market
we are looking at right now.
I think this bubble is going to pop.



It won't happen in my lifetime, but this country is headed for a real
revolution. Whether is is peaceful or violent will only be revealed in
the future. Corporationists, greed, banksters and the trend to find the
cheapest labor for everything means the death of the middle class and
the end of the possibility of lower income groups being able to fight
their way into it. No more decent jobs with benefits, eventually no more
Social Security, no more nothing for the vast majority of Americans
beyond bleak subsistence living. Municipal services being privatized,
jails privatized, police forces gearing up with assault vehicles and
weaponry, and ignorant Americans thinking illegal Central and South
American immigrants are the cause of civilization's decline. It's a
perfect scenario for heads on pikes of the Koch Brothers types and a
real restructuring of America.



If history is a guide to the future a global conflict is likely ...
basically WWIII that will completely restructure how businesses operate
in the USA. It's inevitable.

Meanwhile, unskilled jobs will continue to decline. Higher education
will continue to be a prime prerequisite for those jobs that exist even
in small businesses. The days of expecting middle class wages and
enjoying a middle class lifestyle with nothing more than a high school diploma are over.


It isn't just "unskilled" jobs in decline in this country. We are headed
for a massive restructuring. Too much wealth is concentrated in the hands
of too few and it is getting worse.



There are two ways to respond to your assessment. The first is to cast
the blame on those who have been successful and demand a cut of the
fruits of their labor.

The second is to qualify oneself via training and education for the jobs
that exist in a highly competitive world ... that is only becoming
*more* competitive.

For most, the second route was drilled into us as youngsters. Unlike
today, we were never taught to "expect" it due to some societal right.
The required education may be acquired in many ways. It doesn't
necessarily require daddy's fat checkbook.

I'd also add that it often takes many years of work to rise to the
"middle class" financial category. Some people seem to think it's a
"right" and should start as soon as you become an adult. I didn't
achieve a "middle class" lifestyle until well into my 30's.






Mr. Luddite August 13th 14 05:42 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On 8/13/2014 10:00 AM, Wayne.B wrote:
On Wed, 13 Aug 2014 09:18:42 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

Meanwhile, unskilled jobs will continue to decline. Higher education
will continue to be a prime prerequisite for those jobs that exist even
in small businesses. The days of expecting middle class wages and
enjoying a middle class lifestyle with nothing more than a high school
diploma are over.



===

I understand your point and half agree with your conclusion. There's
no question that skills are the key to a good job and competetive
compensation but there will always be people who manage to acquire
those skills in non-traditional ways. Additionally, there are
certains skills that have almost always been acquired through on the
job training and hard work. I'm thinking specifically of contractors,
electricians, cabinet makers, finish carpenters, specialty welders,
small business owners, oil field workers, etc.



I agree 100 percent. The requirement of training or an education may be
achieved in many ways. Schools are only one of the avenues.

The common denominators is the *will* to learn, grow and improve one's
station in life. My complaint is about those who seem to think that
success, measured at any level, is a right rather than an earned reward.




Wayne.B August 13th 14 06:00 PM

Calculating S.S. benefit at 62 vs 66
 
On 13 Aug 2014 16:17:05 GMT, F.O.A.D. wrote:

wrote:
On Wed, 13 Aug 2014 10:00:58 -0400, Wayne.B
wrote:

On Wed, 13 Aug 2014 09:18:42 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

Meanwhile, unskilled jobs will continue to decline. Higher education
will continue to be a prime prerequisite for those jobs that exist even
in small businesses. The days of expecting middle class wages and
enjoying a middle class lifestyle with nothing more than a high school
diploma are over.



===

I understand your point and half agree with your conclusion. There's
no question that skills are the key to a good job and competetive
compensation but there will always be people who manage to acquire
those skills in non-traditional ways. Additionally, there are
certains skills that have almost always been acquired through on the
job training and hard work. I'm thinking specifically of contractors,
electricians, cabinet makers, finish carpenters, specialty welders,
small business owners, oil field workers, etc.


Harry is schizophrenic in this regard. On the one hand he touts
college for everyone and then he talks about how wonderful the
training is in the trade unions.

I tend to agree that some of the best job opportunities will lie in
the trades.


I know a lot of guys in skilled trades with four year college degrees.


===

There's nothing wrong with making a good living in the skilled trades
but I'd argue that they wasted a fair amount of time and money in
acquiring their 4 year degree. No doubt they are the better for it
it ways that can't be quantified or monetized but the return on
investment is just not there.


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