NBER’s Hall Says Payrolls Make It ‘Pretty Clear’ Recession Over

By Steve Matthews

April 3 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest increase in employment in three years
makes it “pretty clear” the deepest U.S. recession since the 1930s has
ended, said the head of the group charged with making the call.

Payrolls rose by 162,000 workers last month, the third gain in the past
five months and the most since March 2007, figures from the Labor
Department showed yesterday in Washington.

“I personally put lots of emphasis on employment,” Robert Hall, who
heads the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating
Committee, said in an interview. “I would say ‘pretty clear’ is a good
description” for whether the economic contraction has ended, he said.

Among the top indicators the group uses is payrolls, according to its
Web site. The government revised the January and February job count up
by a combined 62,000, putting the March gain at 224,000 after including
the updated data.

“It’s great news that employment has finally stopped shrinking,” Hall, a
Stanford University professor, said.

Today’s report showed the payroll count from the government’s survey of
businesses and the employment numbers from a separate survey of
households have both been heading higher, Hall said.

“That is looking better now,” he said. “I think the odds favor a
continuing expansion in employment, but I don’t have great confidence.”

Growth Outlook

The economy probably grew by 2.8 percent in the first quarter of 2010,
according to the median estimate of a Bloomberg News survey of
economists last month, after a 5.6 percent pace of expansion in the
fourth quarter of 2009.

The committee waits to make a declaration until it can precisely date
the start or end of a contraction, which usually takes six to 18 months,
according to its Web site.

“Our committee will continue to operate in a deliberate model,” Hall said.

The panel has lagged declarations of other economists partly because it
depends on payrolls, among the last economic indicators to show growth.
The National Association for Business Economics in October 2009 said the
recession had ended, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said
in September 2009 the contraction “very likely” had stopped.

“Speaking personally, it now seems very clear that the recession has
ended,” said another panel member, Harvard University professor Jeffrey
Frankel, in an interview yesterday. Frankel has said the most likely
date for the recession’s end would be midyear of 2009.

Economic output has been rising since around June or July, he said,
while employment has only recently started to rise.
--
http://tinyurl.com/ykxp2ym

On 04/04/2010 3:22 PM, hk wrote:

NBER’s Hall Says Payrolls Make It ‘Pretty Clear’ Recession Over

[ snip ]

Guess Hall is into turd polishing.

Get the real numbers he

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

But the numbers are suspect. How can numbers on payroll increase if
current unemployment stays the same, and long term unemployment rises?
People getting part time second jobs?

One real light is mining, it isn't much but is positive. And surprizing
health care is up. Not so surprizing government is up. Are we up to 1
in 7 working for the government yet?

Good turd polish, lets look at more detailed numbers:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Raw unemployment, up. Not in labor force, up. Bright side is low wage
part time employment is up.

GDP up so far ahead of jobs, smells mighty inflationary to me. How is
the gas and coffee prices doing?

Hey, it's an Obamanation!

--
Liberal-statism is an addiction to other peoples money.

On Sun, 04 Apr 2010 16:57:04 -0600, Canuck57
wrote:

On 04/04/2010 3:22 PM, hk wrote:

NBER’s Hall Says Payrolls Make It ‘Pretty Clear’ Recession Over

[ snip ]

Guess Hall is into turd polishing.

Get the real numbers he

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

But the numbers are suspect. How can numbers on payroll increase if
current unemployment stays the same, and long term unemployment rises?
People getting part time second jobs?

because more people who were discouraged and dropped out of looking
for jobs have re-entered the search.

guess rush didn't tell you that.


GDP up so far ahead of jobs, smells mighty inflationary to me

ROFLMAO!! you right whiners know NOTHING about economics!!

only when employment starts to drop will inflation be a problem. that
won't happen for years. in fact, inflation hasnt been a problem in 30
years...

On Apr 4, 7:00*pm, bpuharic wrote:
On Sun, 04 Apr 2010 16:57:04 -0600, Canuck57
wrote:

On 04/04/2010 3:22 PM, hk wrote:

NBER’s Hall Says Payrolls Make It ‘Pretty Clear’ Recession Over

[ snip ]

Guess Hall is into turd polishing.

Get the real numbers he

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

But the numbers are suspect. *How can numbers on payroll increase if
current unemployment stays the same, and long term unemployment rises?
People getting part time second jobs?

because more people who were discouraged and dropped out of looking
for jobs have re-entered the search.

guess rush didn't tell you that.



GDP up so far ahead of jobs, smells mighty inflationary to me

ROFLMAO!! you right whiners know NOTHING about economics!!

only when employment starts to drop will inflation be a problem. that
won't happen for years. in fact, inflation hasnt been a problem in 30
years...

There is Demo-Spin and then there is reality:
http://www.qando.net/?p=7787
The reality is that any new jobs were "created" by the govt spending
money it does not have, not by any real job creation.

On 4/4/10 10:04 PM, Frogwatch wrote:
On Apr 4, 7:00 pm, wrote:
On Sun, 04 Apr 2010 16:57:04 -0600,
wrote:

On 04/04/2010 3:22 PM, hk wrote:

NBER’s Hall Says Payrolls Make It ‘Pretty Clear’ Recession Over

[ snip ]

Guess Hall is into turd polishing.

Get the real numbers he

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

But the numbers are suspect. How can numbers on payroll increase if
current unemployment stays the same, and long term unemployment rises?
People getting part time second jobs?

because more people who were discouraged and dropped out of looking
for jobs have re-entered the search.

guess rush didn't tell you that.



GDP up so far ahead of jobs, smells mighty inflationary to me

ROFLMAO!! you right whiners know NOTHING about economics!!

only when employment starts to drop will inflation be a problem. that
won't happen for years. in fact, inflation hasnt been a problem in 30
years...

There is Demo-Spin and then there is reality:
http://www.qando.net/?p=7787
The reality is that any new jobs were "created" by the govt spending
money it does not have, not by any real job creation.

You quote a right-wing extremist web site for your "reality"? No wonder
your business is failing...


--
http://tinyurl.com/ykxp2ym

On Sun, 4 Apr 2010 19:04:54 -0700 (PDT), Frogwatch
wrote:

On Apr 4, 7:00*pm, bpuharic wrote:
On Sun, 04 Apr 2010 16:57:04 -0600, Canuck57
wrote:


because more people who were discouraged and dropped out of looking
for jobs have re-entered the search.

guess rush didn't tell you that.



GDP up so far ahead of jobs, smells mighty inflationary to me

ROFLMAO!! you right whiners know NOTHING about economics!!

only when employment starts to drop will inflation be a problem. that
won't happen for years. in fact, inflation hasnt been a problem in 30
years...

There is Demo-Spin and then there is reality:
http://www.qando.net/?p=7787
The reality is that any new jobs were "created" by the govt spending
money it does not have, not by any real job creation.

ROFLMAO!! really? so when the govt invests in universities, it creates
no jobs by educating engineers, scientists, doctors, etc?

the only thing more pathetic than your argument

is your intellect.

"Canuck57" wrote in message
...
On 04/04/2010 3:22 PM, hk wrote:

NBER’s Hall Says Payrolls Make It ‘Pretty Clear’ Recession Over

[ snip ]

Guess Hall is into turd polishing.

Get the real numbers he

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

But the numbers are suspect. How can numbers on payroll increase if
current unemployment stays the same, and long term unemployment rises?
People getting part time second jobs?

Dufus... it's because those who've been out of work for a long time who've
dropped off the tally are now returning to the search and are now being
counted again. It really doesn't take more than a high school education to
figure this out.


One real light is mining, it isn't much but is positive. And surprizing
health care is up. Not so surprizing government is up. Are we up to 1 in
7 working for the government yet?

Good turd polish, lets look at more detailed numbers:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Raw unemployment, up. Not in labor force, up. Bright side is low wage
part time employment is up.

GDP up so far ahead of jobs, smells mighty inflationary to me. How is the
gas and coffee prices doing?

I think you're smelling yourself. Why don't you complain about gov't
employees, as though they don't contribute to the economy.

--
Nom=de=Plume

"Frogwatch" wrote in message
...
On Apr 4, 7:00 pm, bpuharic wrote:
On Sun, 04 Apr 2010 16:57:04 -0600, Canuck57
wrote:

On 04/04/2010 3:22 PM, hk wrote:

NBER’s Hall Says Payrolls Make It ‘Pretty Clear’ Recession Over

[ snip ]

Guess Hall is into turd polishing.

Get the real numbers he

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

But the numbers are suspect. How can numbers on payroll increase if
current unemployment stays the same, and long term unemployment rises?
People getting part time second jobs?

because more people who were discouraged and dropped out of looking
for jobs have re-entered the search.

guess rush didn't tell you that.



GDP up so far ahead of jobs, smells mighty inflationary to me

ROFLMAO!! you right whiners know NOTHING about economics!!

only when employment starts to drop will inflation be a problem. that
won't happen for years. in fact, inflation hasnt been a problem in 30
years...

There is Demo-Spin and then there is reality:
http://www.qando.net/?p=7787
The reality is that any new jobs were "created" by the govt spending
money it does not have, not by any real job creation.


The reality is that you aren't able to figure out simple math.
--
Nom=de=Plume

On Apr 4, 11:10*pm, "nom=de=plume" wrote:
"Frogwatch" wrote in message

...
On Apr 4, 7:00 pm, bpuharic wrote:



On Sun, 04 Apr 2010 16:57:04 -0600, Canuck57
wrote:

On 04/04/2010 3:22 PM, hk wrote:

NBER’s Hall Says Payrolls Make It ‘Pretty Clear’ Recession Over

[ snip ]

Guess Hall is into turd polishing.

Get the real numbers he

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

But the numbers are suspect. How can numbers on payroll increase if
current unemployment stays the same, and long term unemployment rises?
People getting part time second jobs?

because more people who were discouraged and dropped out of looking
for jobs have re-entered the search.

guess rush didn't tell you that.

GDP up so far ahead of jobs, smells mighty inflationary to me

ROFLMAO!! you right whiners know NOTHING about economics!!

only when employment starts to drop will inflation be a problem. that
won't happen for years. in fact, inflation hasnt been a problem in 30
years...
There is Demo-Spin and then there is reality:
http://www.qando.net/?p=7787
The reality is that any new jobs were "created" by the govt spending
money it does not have, not by any real job creation.

The reality is that you aren't able to figure out simple math.
--
Nom=de=Plume

The reality is that you aren't able to figure out simple English:

"You don't even read what you right, do you. Good grief."

--
Nom=de=Plume

On Apr 4, 11:09*pm, "nom=de=plume" wrote:
"Canuck57" wrote in message

...

On 04/04/2010 3:22 PM, hk wrote:

NBER’s Hall Says Payrolls Make It ‘Pretty Clear’ Recession Over

[ snip ]

Guess Hall is into turd polishing.

Get the real numbers he

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

But the numbers are suspect. *How can numbers on payroll increase if
current unemployment stays the same, and long term unemployment rises?
People getting part time second jobs?

Dufus... it's because those who've been out of work for a long time who've
dropped off the tally are now returning to the search and are now being
counted again. It really doesn't take more than a high school education to
figure this out.



One real light is mining, it isn't much but is positive. *And surprizing
health care is up. *Not so surprizing government is up. *Are we up to 1 in
7 working for the government yet?

Good turd polish, lets look at more detailed numbers:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Raw unemployment, up. *Not in labor force, up. *Bright side is low wage
part time employment is up.

GDP up so far ahead of jobs, smells mighty inflationary to me. *How is the
gas and coffee prices doing?

I think you're smelling yourself. Why don't you complain about gov't
employees, as though they don't contribute to the economy.

--
Nom=de=Plume

You actually *think* D'Plume? Since when?