On Sat, 21 Nov 2009 22:44:32 -0500, Wayne.B
wrote:

On Sat, 21 Nov 2009 22:01:16 -0500, Tom Francis - SWSports
wrote:


On Sat, 21 Nov 2009 20:08:39 -0500, Wayne.B
wrote:

Speaking of electronics, have you been on 20 meters lately? The
sunspots are coming back. We are open to the North East for 2 or 3
hours every day, California and the PNW later in the afternoon. I've
actually made a few contacts on 15 meters lately.

Yeah - I've been listening - had a long path QSO with a JA on 30
meters which was a shocker. That's rather unusual.

I'm not sure its sunspots though - at least not at this stage of Cycle
24. I think what's happening is that we're seeing some flare activity
in the Helium I sphere which created a coronal hole - that would cause
an increase in magenetosphere energy here on Earth. As of today, none
of the major observatories have seen any sunspot activity at all. In
fact, the active/minor/severe potential at mid and high latitudes is
at .05/.01/.01 respectively. No spots. :)

I was reading today that the solar jet stream is finally moving into
position towards the sun's equator - two years or so later than it
normally does. That portends increased sunspot activity. How long
that lasts though is a question - it may be the last "umph" before it
enters another Maunder Minimum as some have speculated. The timing is
right.

http://dxinfo.ea3bhk.com/Propagation-Forecast/Yet-Another-New-Solar-Cycle-Sunspot-Group.html

Ok - you show me where they are that would create a solar flux of 75
with a corresponding A index of 9 and a K index of 2?. :)

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/...024/latest.jpg

If they are talking about Region 1033, here's the forecast.

Updated 2009 Nov 21 2201 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2009

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1033 (N18E07) remains a
Bxo-beta region. No significant flares were observed during the past
24 hours. The SOHO/C2 images observed a slow moving (around 200 km/s)
Earth directed CME at 21/0755Z. EIT images also showed a wave pattern,
associated with the CME, located in the vicinity of a filament channel
around S40E30.

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare.

Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field was quiet to unsettled. Observations from the ACE spacecraft
indicate the continued influence of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream. Solar wind speed rose through the period from 430 -575
km/s with Bz fluctuations from -8 to +9 nT.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be
predominantly quiet for the next three days (22-24 November).

That's hardly a good start for Cycle 24.