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#61
posted to rec.boats.cruising
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Atmospheric CO2 -- a different view
KLC Lewis wrote:
Wrong focus. Yes, the entire paper supports that the recent CO2 rise is due to human activity -- and that I do not dispute. It is clear that we are generating CO2 which would not otherwise be put into the atmosphere. Nevertheless, the amount that we are generating does not approach that which is generated by natural processes. And PETA (not the "People Eating Tasty Animals" gang) just jumped Al Gore for eating meat. They claim that all the beef and pork farms create the largest single contribution to atmospheric carbon. They say he needs to focus on moving the world to a vegan diet to save the planet form global warming. So I guess we can find some real humor in this discussion. |
#62
posted to rec.boats.cruising
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Atmospheric CO2 -- a different view
"Cessna 310" wrote in message ... KLC Lewis wrote: Wrong focus. Yes, the entire paper supports that the recent CO2 rise is due to human activity -- and that I do not dispute. It is clear that we are generating CO2 which would not otherwise be put into the atmosphere. Nevertheless, the amount that we are generating does not approach that which is generated by natural processes. And PETA (not the "People Eating Tasty Animals" gang) just jumped Al Gore for eating meat. They claim that all the beef and pork farms create the largest single contribution to atmospheric carbon. They say he needs to focus on moving the world to a vegan diet to save the planet form global warming. So I guess we can find some real humor in this discussion. They're kinda right, actually. But it's not the cows and pigs themselves, per se: it's the bar-b-ques. lol "Don't have a cow, the swine is fine!" |
#63
posted to rec.boats.cruising
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Atmospheric CO2 -- a different view
KLC Lewis wrote:
"Cessna 310" wrote in message ... KLC Lewis wrote: Wrong focus. Yes, the entire paper supports that the recent CO2 rise is due to human activity -- and that I do not dispute. It is clear that we are generating CO2 which would not otherwise be put into the atmosphere. Nevertheless, the amount that we are generating does not approach that which is generated by natural processes. And PETA (not the "People Eating Tasty Animals" gang) just jumped Al Gore for eating meat. They claim that all the beef and pork farms create the largest single contribution to atmospheric carbon. They say he needs to focus on moving the world to a vegan diet to save the planet form global warming. So I guess we can find some real humor in this discussion. They're kinda right, actually. But it's not the cows and pigs themselves, per se: it's the bar-b-ques. lol "Don't have a cow, the swine is fine!" LOL!! |
#64
posted to rec.boats.cruising
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Atmospheric CO2 -- a different view
On Wed, 28 Mar 2007 20:10:29 -0500, Cessna 310
wrote: Goofball_star_dot_etal wrote: On Wed, 28 Mar 2007 15:56:52 -0600, "KLC Lewis" wrote: "Goofball_star_dot_etal" wrote in message ... On Wed, 28 Mar 2007 15:47:01 -0600, "KLC Lewis" wrote: Unfortunately, all the CO2 generated by humans pales in comparison to that which is generated by the natural processes of this planet. No. Yes. http://www.radix.net/~bobg/faqs/scq.CO2rise.html It does not say that "all the CO2 (in the atmosphere) generated by humans pales in comparison to that which is generated by the natural processes of this planet." Far from it. "Anthropogenic CO2 is a biogeochemical perturbation of truly geologic proportions" [Sundquist] and has caused a steep rise of atmospheric CO2." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropogenic The 'man made' part can be distiguished from 'natural sources' by carbon isotope ratios. "Indeed, atmospheric 14C, measured on tree rings, dropped by 2 to 2.5 % from about 1850 to 1954, when nuclear bomb tests started to inject 14C into the atmosphere [Butcher, p 256-257] [Schimel 95, p 82]. This 14C decline cannot be explained by a CO2 source in the terrestrial vegetation or soils" etc. Sorry, C14 is present in natural sources and man-made sources. Sorry, its physics. http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/pu...os_eps_96.html And anybody that uses Wiki as a source should have all of their information questioned. I wonder if they do they do "Suess Effect".. |
#65
posted to rec.boats.cruising
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Atmospheric CO2 -- a different view
* Dave wrote, On 3/28/2007 10:12 PM:
On Wed, 28 Mar 2007 19:52:19 -0400, Jeff said: I'm impressed. You're too easily impressed. Since I worked in academia for many years, and have continued to take classes all my life, a good CV is only mildly impressive. However, what is truly impressive is that someone who actually knows something about any controversial topic is willing to share on this forum. |
#66
posted to rec.boats.cruising
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Atmospheric CO2 -- a different view
On 28 Mar 2007 19:45:01 -0500, Dave wrote:
On Wed, 28 Mar 2007 23:31:29 +0100, Goofball_star_dot_etal said: Wrong answer. He wasn't asserting it as a fact. He was asking that it be assumed for the sake of argument. "No" in that context says simply "My mind's made up and no amount of logic, argument or fact will change it. I'm not willing to discuss the matter." No, "no" means we need not guess or "assumed for the sake of argument" because the measurements have already been made. Q.E.D. Postulating various scenarios which are myths is igrorance or obfuscation. Let me post the link again: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...ths/index.html "Prof. John Mitchell OBE FRS, Chief Scientist at the Met Office explores some of the common myths about climate change. The Met Office recognises that climate change is a complex subject. There are genuine areas of uncertainty and scientific controversy. There are also a number of misunderstandings and myths which are recycled, often by non-climate scientists, and portrayed as scientific fact. Recent coverage has questioned the influence of humans on the climate. While the arguments used might have been regarded as genuine areas of sceptical enquiry 20 years ago, further observed warming and advances in climate science render these out of touch. Myth 1 - Ice core records show that changes in temperature drive changes in carbon dioxide, and it is not carbon dioxide that is driving the current warming Levels of atmospheric CO2 are higher than at any time in the last 430,000 years Click on the image for a larger view Only the first part of this statement is true. Over the several hundred thousand years covered by the ice core record, the temperature changes were primarily driven by changes in the Earth’s orbit around the sun. Over this period, changes in temperature did drive changes in carbon dioxide (CO2). Concentrations of CO2 are now much higher and increasing much faster than at any time in at least the last 600,000 years. This should be a warning that what is happening now is very different to what happened in the past. In fact, over the last 100 years CO2 concentrations have increased by 30% due mainly to human-induced emissions from fossil fuels. Because CO2 is a greenhouse gas, the increased concentrations have contributed to the recent warming and probably most of the warming over the last 50 years. The bottom line is that temperature and CO2 concentrations are linked. In recent ice ages, natural changes in the climate (due to orbit changes for example) led to cooling of the climate system. This caused a fall in CO2 concentrations which weakened the greenhouse effect and amplified the cooling. Now the link between temperature and CO2 is working in the opposite direction. Human-induced increases in CO2 is enhancing the greenhouse effect and amplifying the recent warming. Myth 2 - Solar activity is the main driver of climate change Temperature change, 1850-2000 Click on the image for a larger view There are many factors which may contribute to climate change. For example, over the last million years most of the long-term changes in climate were probably due to small but well understood changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. Over much of the last 1,000 years most of the variability can probably be explained by cooling due to major volcanic eruptions and changes in solar heating. However, the situation in the 20th century is more complicated. There is some evidence that increases in solar heating may have led to some warming early in the 20th century, but direct satellite measurements show no appreciable change in solar heating over the last three decades. Three major volcanic eruptions in 1963, 1982 and 1991 have led to short periods of cooling. Throughout the century CO2 increased steadily and has been shown to be responsible for most of the warming in the second half of the century. The final piece of the jigsaw is that as well as producing CO2, burning fossil fuels also produces small particles called aerosols which cool the climate by reflecting sunlight back into space. These have increased steadily in concentration over the 20th century, which has probably offset some of the warming we have seen. Only when all of these factors are included do we get a satisfactory explanation of the magnitude and patterns of climate change over the last century. The bottom line is that changes in solar activity do affect global temperatures. However, what research also shows is that increased greenhouse gas concentrations have a much greater effect than changes in the Sun’s energy over the last 50 years. Myth 3 - There is less warming in the upper atmosphere than at the surface which disproves human-induced warming We expect greater warming in the upper atmosphere than at the surface in the tropics, but the reverse is true at high latitudes. This expectation holds whether the cause of warming is due to greenhouse gases or changes in the Sun’s output. Until recently, measurements of the temperature changes in the tropics in recent decades did not appear to show greater warming aloft than at the surface. It has now been shown that allowing for uncertainties in the observations, the theoretical and modelling results can be reconciled with the observations. The bottom line is that observations are now consistent with increased warming through the troposphere. Myth 4 - The intensity of cosmic rays changes climate Solar activity, 1850-2000 Click on the image for a larger view A recent experiment has apparently shown that gamma radiation can form ions (electrically charged particles) in the atmosphere. Under certain circumstances, these can subsequently form ultra-fine particles (or aerosols), which could conceivably act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and therefore form clouds. However, the mechanism by which cosmic rays might affect climate is as yet purely speculative and unquantified. While it has long been known that radiation could form ions and, in theory, ultimately lead to cloud formation, the importance of this process compared to all the other major sources of particles and CCN has not been proven. Indeed, there is no evidence that the flux of cosmic rays has increased over the last 30 years. The bottom line is, even if cosmic rays have a detectable effect on climate (and this remains unproven), measured solar activity over the last few decades has not significantly changed and cannot explain the continued warming trend. In contrast, increases in CO2 are well measured and its warming effect is well quantified. It offers the most plausible explanation of most of the recent warming and future increases. Myth 5 - Climate models are too complex and uncertain to provide useful projections of climate change There have been major advances in the development and use of models over the last 20 years. The models are based mainly on the laws of physics. There are also empirical techniques which use, for example, studies of detailed processes involved in cloud formation. The most advanced computer models also include detailed coupling of the circulations of atmosphere and oceans, along with detailed descriptions of the feedbacks between all components of the climate system including the cryosphere and biosphere. Climate models have been used to reproduce the main features of the current climate, the temperature changes over the last hundred years and the main features of the Holocene (6,000 years ago) and Last Glacial Maximum (21,000) years ago. The bottom line is that current models enable us to attribute the causes of past climate change and predict the main features of the future climate with a high degree of confidence. We now need to provide more regional detail and more complete analysis of extreme events. " |
#67
posted to rec.boats.cruising
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Atmospheric CO2 -- a different view
Dave wrote:
On Wed, 28 Mar 2007 22:08:11 -0400, "mr.b" said: On Wed, 28 Mar 2007 20:17:28 -0500, Cessna 310 wrote: Oh, that explains it. So you may be in jeopardy of losing research funding if if global warming is revealed to be a natural occurrence. and there's one more for the bozo-bin I guess Mr. b. doesn't want to tell us whether he has a financial interest in GW. Doesn't really matter. A lot of people have tied global warming to a political ideology. Its too bad that science has now been so politicized that facts supporting one view or another are shouted down due to politics instead of their appropriate scientific worthiness. |
#68
posted to rec.boats.cruising
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Atmospheric CO2 -- a different view
On 29 Mar 2007 11:15:01 -0500, Dave wrote:
On Thu, 29 Mar 2007 10:56:07 -0500, Cessna 310 said: Doesn't really matter. A lot of people have tied global warming to a political ideology. Its too bad that science has now been so politicized that facts supporting one view or another are shouted down due to politics instead of their appropriate scientific worthiness. Does the term Lysenkoism ring a bell? Wikipedia is your friend. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenkoism |
#69
posted to rec.boats.cruising
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Atmospheric CO2 -- a different view
KLC Lewis wrote: Wrong focus. Yes, the entire paper supports that the recent CO2 rise is due to human activity -- and that I do not dispute. It is clear that we are generating CO2 which would not otherwise be put into the atmosphere. Nevertheless, the amount that we are generating does not approach that which is generated by natural processes. No, you're focusing on the wrong issue. Take a look at the article again. The whole point is the carbon *flux*. Without *our* input, the flux, on average, is balanced (i.e. natural emitters = natural sinks). Thus the *Increase* is due to man. The magnitude of the normal flux is irrelevant since without us it's balanced. There are normal oscillations in atmospheric carbon due to the many competing processes in operation(emitters & sinks), but with addition of anthropogenic processes those oscillations are now centered about an increasing trend line. It's the rise in the mean carbon concentration about which those processes oscillate that is the issue. Keith Hughes |
#70
posted to rec.boats.cruising
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Atmospheric CO2 -- a different view
On 29 Mar 2007 11:53:02 -0500, Dave wrote:
On Thu, 29 Mar 2007 17:42:50 +0100, Goofball_star_dot_etal said: Does the term Lysenkoism ring a bell? Wikipedia is your friend. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenkoism Yes. But some of us didn't have to look it up. Very true.. Some of us lack the vision to see the the potential of a self-tuning, evolving system or in your case to see beyond your nose. |
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