"Bob" wrote:


I don't know, but IME the wave heights reported by NOAA aren't very
accurate either. I don't really know how wave heights can be
accurately measured.

I'm not sure how they do the waves from the buoys, but there aren't
that many of those.

Bouys, satellites, ship obsevations....

It's the ship observations that I don't trust. We just got back from
a cruise and the wave heights that they reported were just
unbelievable to me. Either they said it was calm with no significant
waves when it was not, or they said that the waves were 7-8 (feet or
meters can't remember which) when there looked to me that there
weren't any to speak of.

As far as weather forecasts go - more than once the forecast has been
15-20 decreasing during the day, and it has actually been 15-20
increasing to 25-30 with gusts to 50.

More important at the top of every Ocean Prediction Center weather fax
you'll read:
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IS SHOWN (THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE WAVES)

In other words, the forcasted/observed wave hight means you gonna see
lots bigger ones too. Average = mean.
Bob

I know what average and mean are. But if it is the average tallest
1/3rd, I would expect to see more smaller ones (the other 2/3rds). (I
don't get weather faxes as a rule, so I would not have seen that)

When they report the weather at Thomas Point light, they say the same
thing about the wind speed and the waves there. And what they report
is sometimes significantly different from what we see at our boat even
though we are within sight of the light.

Also when we go past Cedar Point at the mouth of the Patuxent, the
wind there is often completely opposite of any other place on the
Chesapeake.

My point is that a lot of weather is really localized and broad
observations may not really reflect what is happening at a specific
boat.

"Olecapt" wrote in message
...

"Jere Lull" wrote in message
...
In article ,
"Olecapt" wrote:

OK - I will go for it. This couple seems unsuited for short handed
sailing.
Helping them out simply helps them to kill themselves.

Why would you do that?


Evidently, you haven't been following them for very long.

As I see it, an understandable enthusiasm dulled their normal
cautiousness, compounded by the *many* dock mates wanting to say
farewell and the flurry of activity attending finally getting away
after so many years' hard work that we've been following, sometimes in
excruciating detail. They have many friends here.

I know they know the first rule of cruising: never sail to a "date", I
called them on it before they left the dock, but I can certainly
sympathize with a "just this one time".

Had they been in a similar situation after a week's settling in and
getting the watch schedules set, I'm sure they would have handled it
better.

--
Jere Lull
Xan-a-Deux ('73 Tanzer 28 #4 out of Tolchester, MD)
Xan's NEW Pages: http://web.mac.com/jerelull/iWeb/Xan/
Our BVI FAQs (290+ pics) http://homepage.mac.com/jerelull/BVI/

You are all making excuses. If these folk are your friends I would think
counsel that they not go off shore without at least a third capable member
on board would be in order.

Skip regardless of his skills or abilities ended up with a lady made ditzy
by seasickness on the helm in dangerous conditions in dangerous waters.
How much more can one screw up?

From long experience one has to be very careful with those who have a sea
sickness proclivity. They can get totally out of it particularly if they
dehydrate.

Sure it was the start of the voyage. That is one of the standard times
when things go wrong.

And no I have never run into anything hard on a bad weather night on the
deep blue. If I ever do I think that will be it.

Sure I can get demasted. Or charged by a whale I suppose. Those however
are problems that were inflected on me. Completely different from those I
inflect on myself.

I would very strongly suggest this couple is unsuited for double handling
anything more than day runs. Other than that they should have a good
third crew.

Hmm silence. Is it the "we are not going to offer an opinion because Skip
and Lydia will see it?" Or is the subject simply too painful to raise.
That is how we avoid a lot of the truths in blue water sailing.

Hmm silence. Is it the "we are not going to offer an opinion because Skip
and Lydia will see it?" Or is the subject simply too painful to raise.

Maybe just too obvious. The mans boat was on the reef. What can you
say??

That is how we avoid a lot of the truths in blue water sailing.- Hide quoted text -

Id say truth at times is very painful:
Kennedy.... Bay of Pigs............. origin of the term "Group Think"
Bush.........Iraq....... stay the course.

And many wont speak up for a varity of reasons. And those who do are
punnished with frowns for not being a team player or raining on
somebodies parade.

I was 17 years old when i saw my first crusing boat sanded in on a
beach. It think it was 1969 or so. Same story thats been repeated
countless times on every sho Couple in their early 60s retire
early, sell everything to spend a their life in blissful cruising.
Never sailed much, physical conditioning??? Sailing is HARD work. In
my case they left southern CA late in October and headed north. Got
tossed around about Cape Blanco, Or. Got seasick-bounced and bruised
no longer able to sail the boat and ended up on the beach at Waldport,
OR. It happens way too often.

Bob

On Sat, 10 Feb 2007 22:56:25 -0800, Olecapt wrote:

snip

I guess you feel compelled to **** in these folks' corn flakes at this
time in an effort to be helpful. Just because we can say a thing, doesn't
mean we have to.

"Olecapt" wrote in message
...
Hmm silence. Is it the "we are not going to offer an opinion because
Skip and Lydia will see it?" Or is the subject simply too painful to
raise. That is how we avoid a lot of the truths in blue water sailing.


Do you really think there's anything to be said that Skip isn't already
saying to himself, in no uncertain terms?

"Bob" wrote:


Hmm silence. Is it the "we are not going to offer an opinion because Skip
and Lydia will see it?" Or is the subject simply too painful to raise.

Maybe just too obvious. The mans boat was on the reef. What can you
say??

Having read Skip's assessment of the situation, I'd say a lot of the
problem was the newness of the cruising experience, the inadequacy of
the weather reports, and, yes, the inexperience of Lydia.
Inexperience can be remedied. On our first cruises, I also had to
rely a lot on Bob even though I had taken some sailing lessons.

The part of Skip's story where he went forward to reef was similar to
something that happened to us, except that we didn't have jack lines,
and Bob had to do it twice (during the day, but we were not setting
off on a big cruise, we were just going down around the peninsula on a
day trip). I knew that if he fell overboard I would not be able to
retrieve him. Our experience was in April in the Chesapeake so cold
water would also have been a problem. Bob was very careful, and
obviously did NOT go overboard, and installed jacklines the very next
thing. (In our defense I have to say that he did have a harness, and
we had practiced retrieving each other from the water)

We've also been in a bad storm (right after Bob's heart attack) where
he didn't listen to the weather report and I let him persuade me to
leave. I was worried about his getting rest then too, as once out
there we had nowhere to go except to keep on going as we were doing.

But by that time (we'd been cruising for 2 years and we had been
married for 43 years), I was in charge of the route planning so we
both knew where we were (we could both read the charts and the radar),
and I let him stay at the wheel all night. After we made port the
next day I insisted that he take a nap and I made him go to bed early
the next night (which he didn't want to do).

"KLC Lewis" wrote in message
news

Do you really think there's anything to be said that Skip isn't already
saying to himself, in no uncertain terms?


Good point! This isn't some kid with stars in his eyes... or some recently
retired baby boomer who bought his boat last month.....

Professional sailors have been known to run aground... the captain of
Bluenose II did it right in Halifax harbour.. during a clear day.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/story/2001/04...grd010416.html

On Feb 11, 4:08 am, "mr.b" wrote:
On Sat, 10 Feb 2007 22:56:25 -0800, Olecapt wrote:


I guess you feel compelled to **** in these folks' corn flakes at this
time in an effort to be helpful. Just because we can say a thing, doesn't
mean we have to.


Dear mr.b:

As I said a few post ago.......................

"....And many wont speak up for a variety of reasons. And those who do
are
punished with frowns for not being a team player or raining on
somebodies parade....."

Or in this case where mr.b. said, "...I guess you feel compelled to
**** in these folks' corn flakes..." See how we punish the "Devils
Advocate." Another way we keep good info/intel from seeing the light
of day is, "...If you can not say anything good. Don't say anything
at all...." Or "there is no reson to be rude." Thats real common with
women, southerners, and the people over 60 generation. These are just
a few of several examples that tell people to keep your mouth shut
even if you know some one is about to FU or just FU. Very subtle how
we punish people back into line. Or as the many Asian cultures say,
"...the nail that stands up gets hammered down...." Personally I
recruit asshole opinion regularly just so I get EVERY option/opinion/
observation possible. Assholes have soemvery good advice at times and
are more than willing to share it. My advice: seek out assholes.

Did any of Skips so called friends stop and ask, "...when was the last
time you spent 2 consecutive nights at sea in small craft warnings? If
its been more than a year, why not go 50 miles out and sit in some
rough weather just to see how everything goes...." Did anybody say
that?!?!?! Why not?!? If not, you aint no friend! People who are truly
Good Friends wont let the people who they care about go diddy bopping
down the blissful trail of destruction.

I say we need more cornflake ****ers, parade rainers, and you just
aint a team player types in our life.
Ya its a damn shame they ran their boat on reef. So give them a hug
and a helping hand. But NEVER avoid the reason how they got there.
Some reader hear might LEARN somthing!
Bob

In article ,
"KLC Lewis" wrote:

"Olecapt" wrote in message
...
Hmm silence. Is it the "we are not going to offer an opinion because
Skip and Lydia will see it?" Or is the subject simply too painful to
raise. That is how we avoid a lot of the truths in blue water sailing.


Do you really think there's anything to be said that Skip isn't already
saying to himself, in no uncertain terms?

That's certainly true.

Their plan was good, what I would have counseled, but then they made
slight adjustments that individually were minor, made sense even in
hindsight, and normally wouldn't have caused problems, except that they
added up the wrong way.

Ahhh, I see his "I learned about sailing from that" has finally shown up
here. I think we can all learn from that.

--
Jere Lull
Xan-a-Deux ('73 Tanzer 28 #4 out of Tolchester, MD)
Xan's NEW Pages: http://web.mac.com/jerelull/iWeb/Xan/
Our BVI FAQs (290+ pics) http://homepage.mac.com/jerelull/BVI/

Their plan was good,

Jere Lull


Hello Je
This is where we disagree. After reading Skip's latest post crash
debrief his usual amazingly detailed description screams of a sequence
of pre-departure problems. And of even greater concern to me is that
he does not seem to recognize any and blames 1) faulty weather reports
and 2) his less than capable wife. My prayer for S&L and others is to
take a long hard look at the events that preceed their departure and
know that more of the same will only bring more of the same.
Bob