wrote:
I think that simple demographics dictate that boat prices *must* go
down. The majority of potential boat buyers...esp. distance
cruisers...are getting older fast, and while they may have the money,
they don't have the time or energy in many cases.

Great logic, but unfortunately it doesn't work. More than 2/3 of the
boats sold today are used boats...a reflection of a market that's
becoming saturated. However, instead of driving down the prices of new
boats, this actually drives prices up...because boat builders have fixed
expenses...and the more units they can build and sell, the more units
their fixed expenses can be amortised over, driving prices down...but
the fewer units they can sell, the more they have to sell 'em for just
to stay in business.

So the net result: instead of prices going down, fewer choices at higher
prices...and a market that just keeps on becoming more and more
saturated...until there may not be ANY market for new boats at all.

My last boat was 16 yrs old when I bought her....21 when I sold her (at
a small profit, btw). She was most assuredly a "project" boat--nothing
on her worked...but she was sound. I paid $25k for her...spend another
$20k replacing/upgrading everything on her...evening adding a bunch of
things--like an icemaker. Total investment for a boat that, except for
the hull, WAS a new boat that had every "bell and whistle" any 'floating
condo' buyer could want: $45k. Comparable new: $175-$195k. So why would
anyone buy new when they have it all for 1/4 the price?

I'm not the only person to figure that out...which is why more than 2/3
of all boats sold today are used boats...and why the prices of new boats
can only keep going up to keep the boat builders in business.

Peggie
----------
Peggie Hall
Specializing in marine sanitation since 1987
Author "Get Rid of Boat Odors - A Guide To Marine Sanitation Systems and
Other Sources of Aggravation and Odor"
http://shop.sailboatowners.com/detai...=400&group=327

http://www.seaworthy.com/html/get_ri...oat_odors.html

Peggie Hall wrote:

...more than 2/3 of all boats sold today are used boats...

Peggie,
Is this an actual number or a guess on your part? If real, I'm amazed
that the number isn't much higher. At least for larger boats, of all
the people I've known who own sailboats, there's only one that I know of
that actually bought a new boat - perhaps that's why the yacht club I
used to belong to was sometimes self-described as the "poor white trash
of yacht clubs" ;-}

Had we restricted ourselves to buying a new boat for what we paid for
our used Tayana, we would have been limited to an unequiped Catalina 27
(or similar boat). Buying used was a complete no brainer. I honestly
don't know who buys new boats, but it sure isn't us.

btw, thanks for being such a great resource. You fill an information
need here and elsewhere on the net like no one else.
--
Dan Best - (707) 431-1662, Healdsburg, CA 95448

B-2/75 1977-1979
Tayana 37 #192, "Tricia Jean" http://rangerbest.home.comcast.net/TriciaJean.JPG

I know two people who bought new boats in the last 5 years. One of them
is a female physician. Good income, possibly limited "fix-it" skills,
limited time. She bought a mid 30's Tartan. The other, a bankruptcy
attorney, has bought two new boats in the last 5 years. The first was a
23-24 ft Beneteau, the second, a Catalina 36. Same profile, limited
"fix-it" skills, high income, etc. He spoke of a "good trade in" value
for the first boat. I shudder to think of the depreciation of the
Catalina until it's value stabilizes. FWIW

Jonathan

Daniel E. Best wrote:
Peggie Hall wrote:

...more than 2/3 of all boats sold today are used boats...


Peggie,
Is this an actual number or a guess on your part? If real, I'm amazed
that the number isn't much higher. At least for larger boats, of all
the people I've known who own sailboats, there's only one that I know of
that actually bought a new boat - perhaps that's why the yacht club I
used to belong to was sometimes self-described as the "poor white trash
of yacht clubs" ;-}

Had we restricted ourselves to buying a new boat for what we paid for
our used Tayana, we would have been limited to an unequiped Catalina 27
(or similar boat). Buying used was a complete no brainer. I honestly
don't know who buys new boats, but it sure isn't us.

btw, thanks for being such a great resource. You fill an information
need here and elsewhere on the net like no one else.

Daniel E. Best wrote:
Peggie Hall wrote:

...more than 2/3 of all boats sold today are used boats...


Peggie,
Is this an actual number or a guess on your part? If real, I'm amazed
that the number isn't much higher.

It's real...the last numbers I saw were 67%. They're a few years old, so
the current number could be even higher.

At least for larger boats, of all
the people I've known who own sailboats, there's only one that I know of
that actually bought a new boat - perhaps that's why the yacht club I
used to belong to was sometimes self-described as the "poor white trash
of yacht clubs" ;-}

If yours was, mine was too. My dock at my YC had 16 slips...all the
boats on it were 30-42', not a one newer than 15 years old, the oldest
was a 1970...all beautifully restored and updated. We had one empty
slip, which was taken by a new member with a brand new 36' aft cabin
cruiser...who couldn't quite manage to hide his disdain for our old
"dowager queens"...till he finally figured out that all of us were
equally unimpressed by the fact that he was the only person on the dock
making boat payments...we'd all paid cash--about what his down payment
was--and put what we would have paid a bank into restoration...and our
boats had all the "bells and whistles" his did.

But I guess somebody has to buy new boats...otherwise, there wouldn't be
any old ones TO restore.

btw, thanks for being such a great resource. You fill an information
need here and elsewhere on the net like no one else.

Thanks for the kind words!

Peggie
----------
Peggie Hall
Specializing in marine sanitation since 1987
Author "Get Rid of Boat Odors - A Guide To Marine Sanitation Systems and
Other Sources of Aggravation and Odor"
http://shop.sailboatowners.com/detai...=400&group=327

http://www.seaworthy.com/html/get_ri...oat_odors.html

I like your analysis on new boats. Makes sense that they will increase in
price, beyond inflation, as demand/volume goes down. There doesn't seem to
be any great 'productivity' gains being applied to building new boats that
would drive the prices down like desktop PCs. Proucdtion has already been
moved overseas. So what does this really mean for the used boat market? Less
new boats coming on the market, prices go up, less overall demand, prices go
down. ???
Paul
www.jcruiser.org
"Peggie Hall" wrote in message
...
wrote:
I think that simple demographics dictate that boat prices *must* go
down. The majority of potential boat buyers...esp. distance
cruisers...are getting older fast, and while they may have the money,
they don't have the time or energy in many cases.

Great logic, but unfortunately it doesn't work. More than 2/3 of the
boats sold today are used boats...a reflection of a market that's
becoming saturated. However, instead of driving down the prices of new
boats, this actually drives prices up...because boat builders have fixed
expenses...and the more units they can build and sell, the more units
their fixed expenses can be amortised over, driving prices down...but
the fewer units they can sell, the more they have to sell 'em for just
to stay in business.

So the net result: instead of prices going down, fewer choices at higher
prices...and a market that just keeps on becoming more and more
saturated...until there may not be ANY market for new boats at all.

My last boat was 16 yrs old when I bought her....21 when I sold her (at
a small profit, btw). She was most assuredly a "project" boat--nothing
on her worked...but she was sound. I paid $25k for her...spend another
$20k replacing/upgrading everything on her...evening adding a bunch of
things--like an icemaker. Total investment for a boat that, except for
the hull, WAS a new boat that had every "bell and whistle" any 'floating
condo' buyer could want: $45k. Comparable new: $175-$195k. So why would
anyone buy new when they have it all for 1/4 the price?

I'm not the only person to figure that out...which is why more than 2/3
of all boats sold today are used boats...and why the prices of new boats
can only keep going up to keep the boat builders in business.

Peggie
----------
Peggie Hall
Specializing in marine sanitation since 1987
Author "Get Rid of Boat Odors - A Guide To Marine Sanitation Systems and
Other Sources of Aggravation and Odor"
http://shop.sailboatowners.com/detai...=400&group=327

http://www.seaworthy.com/html/get_ri...oat_odors.html

Paul L wrote:
I like your analysis on new boats. Makes sense that they will increase in
price, beyond inflation, as demand/volume goes down. There doesn't seem to
be any great 'productivity' gains being applied to building new boats that
would drive the prices down like desktop PCs.

The market for boats is miniscule compared to the market for PCs and
cars...there are only 12 million registrered boats in the whole
country...not very many in a population of 300 million. But the cost of
building 'em is even higher than the costs of building cars and PCs.
That gives boat builders on two choices: charge more for 'em, or go out
of business--which a lot of have done. 90% of the names today belong to
companies who bought little more than the rights to put those names on
their boats...Cape Dory, Chris Craft (now owned by a UK company),
Trojan, Carver, Bertram, just to name a few. Pearson is gone
altogether...so is Columbia, California and at least a dozen more.

That's why the favorite joke among boat builders is, "How do you make a
million $$ in the boat business? Start with $2 million and get out quick!"

Proucdtion has already been
moved overseas. So what does this really mean for the used boat market? Less
new boats coming on the market, prices go up, less overall demand, prices go
down. ???

Used boat prices are tied to the economy....the minute it starts to get
soft, people start unloading non-essentials, flooding the market,
driving price down. When it's strong, people buy non-essentials like
boats...no glut, higher prices. However, unlike the real estate market,
boat prices never get ridiculously high, they only recover to
normal--adjusted for inflation--for age and condition. They can,
however, get ridiculously low in bad times. Great for people who have
cash and want to buy...not so great if you have a boat and have to sell.

Peggie
----------
Peggie Hall
Specializing in marine sanitation since 1987
Author "Get Rid of Boat Odors - A Guide To Marine Sanitation Systems and
Other Sources of Aggravation and Odor"
http://shop.sailboatowners.com/detai...=400&group=327

http://www.seaworthy.com/html/get_ri...oat_odors.html