Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the
most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike's rated Category 2
strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5
Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina's,
inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana
with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the
exceptional size of Ike. According to the latest wind field estimate (Figure
1), the diameter of Ike's tropical storm and hurricane force winds are 550
and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Katrina numbers at landfall
were 440 and 210 miles, respectively. As I discussed in yesterday's blog
entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic
Energy (IKE). Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly
since yesterday, and the hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased
from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy
at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm
surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along
the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from
Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border. The Texas storm surge record
is held by Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with
145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a
180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was
recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas.
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jlrogers±³©

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