Same Ol Same Ol...That's what they said last year.

FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) - The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should
be "very active," with nine hurricanes, including five intense or
major hurricanes, a top researcher said Tuesday.
Colorado State University researcher William Gray's forecast says
there is a 74% probability of a major hurricane making landfall along
the U.S. coastline this year, compared with the average of 52% over
the past century.

The forecast calls for a total of 17 named storms. The five intense or
major hurricanes are expected to have sustained winds of 111 mph or
greater.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Last season had nine named storms and five hurricanes, two of them
major. That was considered "near normal" but fell short of predictions
by Gray and government scientists. None hit the U.S. Atlantic coast -
only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945.

FIND MORE STORIES IN: Atlantic | El Ni | William Gray | Colorado State
University
Gray's research team said a surprise late El Niño contributed to the
calmer season last year. El Niño - a warming in the Pacific Ocean -
has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the
eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes there,
Gray said.

A weak to moderate El Niño occurred in December 2006-January 2007, but
it dissipated rapidly, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team.

"We do not think that's going to be an inhibiting factor this year,"
Klotzbach said.

Long-term averages in the Atlantic are 9.6 named storms, 5.9
hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

The 2005 season was the worst on record in the U.S., with 28 named
storms, including 15 hurricanes, four of which hit the U.S. The most
devastating storm was Katrina, which leveled parts of the Gulf Coast.