CIA has a bleak analysis of Iraq
A report found more civilians there are supporting the resistance. It
conflicts with upbeat public assessments.
By Jonathan S. Landay
Inquirer Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON - A new, top-secret CIA report from Iraq warns that growing
numbers of Iraqis are concluding the U.S.-led coalition can be defeated and
are supporting the insurgents.

The report paints a bleak picture of the political and security situation in
Iraq and cautions that the U.S.-led drive to rebuild the country as a
democracy could collapse unless corrective actions are taken immediately.

L. Paul Bremer, leader of the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, who
arrived unexpectedly in Washington for strategy sessions yesterday,
essentially endorsed the CIA's findings, a senior administration official
said.

The report's bleak tone and Bremer's private endorsement differ sharply with
the upbeat public assessments that President Bush, his chief aides, and even
Bremer are giving as part of an aggressive publicity campaign aimed at
countering rising anxieties over increasing U.S. casualties in Iraq.

Two senior administration officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity
because the document is classified, described the report's findings in broad
terms but did not detail any recommendations.

The report landed on the desks of senior U.S. officials on Monday.
Disclosures on the report's findings suggested senior policymakers want to
make sure the assessment reaches Bush.

Some senior policymakers have expressed frustration in efforts to provide
Bush with more somber analyses of the situation in Iraq than the optimistic
views presented by Vice President Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald H.
Rumsfeld, and other hard-liners.

The CIA analysis suggests U.S. policy in Iraq has reached a turning point,
as the Bush administration moves to escalate the war against the guerrillas
and accelerate the transfer of political power to Iraqis.

Both options are potentially risky.

An escalation of the military campaign could cause more civilian casualties
and drive more Iraqis to the insurgents' side.

At the same time, the CIA assessment warns that none of the postwar Iraqi
political institutions and leaders have shown an ability to govern the
country or even preside over drafting a constitution or holding an election.

Upon his arrival in Washington yesterday, Bremer went directly into a White
House meeting with Rumsfeld, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, national
security adviser Condoleezza Rice, and other key officials.

The meeting focused on how to break the political logjam in Baghdad and
speed planning for the nation's future.

Bremer's hurried flight to Washington caught his staff by surprise and
forced him to cancel a meeting with Poland's prime minister, Leszek Miller.

Some U.S. officials believe key members of the 25-member Iraqi Governing
Council are stalling their work in hopes of winning concessions from U.S.
leaders under political pressure to turn over power to the Iraqis.

U.S. officials have become deeply frustrated with not only the inaction by
the Iraqi council, but also with its nepotism and infighting. The
U.S.-appointed body of Iraqi politicians has limited powers to govern Iraq.
The council also is in charge of overseeing the drafting of a constitution.

The White House meeting also discussed moves to speed recruiting for Iraqi
security forces, including a new army.

More than 118,000 Iraqis are serving in the army, police and other forces,
and U.S. officials aim to raise the total to more than 220,000 in 2004.

Accelerating a restoration of Iraqi self-rule, speeding security-force
recruiting, and intensifying a U.S. counterinsurgency campaign form the crux
of a new U.S. strategy to crush the insurgents, consolidate the support of
ordinary Iraqis for democracy-building efforts, and reduce the U.S. military
presence.

The senior administration officials said the CIA assessment was composed by
the CIA station chief in Baghdad, a veteran operations officer who oversees
more than 275 officers.

The report is known as an AARDWOLF, a special field assessment that is
usually requested by senior policymakers in Washington at important
junctures in overseas crises.

The report, one official said, warned that aggressive U.S. counterinsurgency
tactics could induce more Iraqis to join the guerrilla campaign that has
killed at least 153 U.S. soldiers - 35 of them this month - since Bush
declared an end to major combat operations on May 1.

The report also added to concerns about the governing council. The group,
which is dominated by former Iraqi exiles with little popular support, has
failed to convince ordinary Iraqis that the occupation is temporary and will
lead to a unified, sovereign Iraq, the report said.

Bremer has been formulating ways "in which the Governing Council can evolve
into a decision-making body to move the constitutional process along," a
third senior U.S. official said, also on condition of anonymity.

He denied reports that the Bush administration is considering replacing the
council.

One senior administration official said the report warned that the
coalition's inability to crush the insurgents is convincing growing numbers
of Iraqis that the occupation can be defeated, bolstering support for the
insurgents.

The CIA report raised the concern that majority Shiite Muslims could begin
joining minority Sunnis in turning against the occupation.

Friction between occupation authorities and the Shiites has been
intensifying, fueled by events such as a U.S. soldier's killing of the mayor
of Sadr City, a massive Shiite slum in Baghdad, this week.

In another finding, the CIA report said there was no way to completely seal
Iraq's borders with Syria, Turkey, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to
infiltration by foreign Islamic extremists bent on killing Americans.

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On Thu, 13 Nov 2003 03:06:47 GMT, "Bobsprit" wrote:

WASHINGTON - A new, top-secret CIA report...

Obviously, that's not true, so why believe the rest?

two wheels

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iQA/AwUBP7L8UNCBA23eyf45EQIGsQCg54cFPXO/IezkMFk/GUxV2hAzRSYAoOCQ
HrQHQTwKbWXNUq487GvIgXal
=IO4H
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The CIA lied again????

"two wheels" wrote in message
...
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On Thu, 13 Nov 2003 03:06:47 GMT, "Bobsprit" wrote:

WASHINGTON - A new, top-secret CIA report...

Obviously, that's not true, so why believe the rest?

two wheels

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iQA/AwUBP7L8UNCBA23eyf45EQIGsQCg54cFPXO/IezkMFk/GUxV2hAzRSYAoOCQ
HrQHQTwKbWXNUq487GvIgXal
=IO4H
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Don't wear such tight pants and you won't have that problem.

--=20
katysails
s/v Chanteuse
Kirie Elite 32
http://katysails.tripod.com

"Women and cats will do as they please, and men and dogs should relax
and get used to the idea." - Robert A. Heinlein

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I have a beautiful one-of-a-kind California art print I'd like to sell
you, Ganz. The way you can tell that it's one-of-a-kind is by the
little 437/500 next to the artist's signature--same way you can tell
something is "top-secret" while you're reading about it in the press.

two wheels


On Wed, 12 Nov 2003 21:11:50 -0800, "Jonathan Ganz"
wrote:
The CIA lied again????



WASHINGTON - A new, top-secret CIA report...

Obviously, that's not true, so why believe the rest?


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iQA/AwUBP7MnTNCBA23eyf45EQKW6ACfVuW9HoEav+FJRd9e9vLa86 RGn78AnROU
5lUqRBdyeim+lsJP5BaXi3Kz
=wFXr
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So you're saying the CIA is or isn't lying again?

"two wheels" wrote in message
news
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

I have a beautiful one-of-a-kind California art print I'd like to sell
you, Ganz. The way you can tell that it's one-of-a-kind is by the
little 437/500 next to the artist's signature--same way you can tell
something is "top-secret" while you're reading about it in the press.

two wheels


On Wed, 12 Nov 2003 21:11:50 -0800, "Jonathan Ganz"
wrote:
The CIA lied again????



WASHINGTON - A new, top-secret CIA report...

Obviously, that's not true, so why believe the rest?


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iQA/AwUBP7MnTNCBA23eyf45EQKW6ACfVuW9HoEav+FJRd9e9vLa86 RGn78AnROU
5lUqRBdyeim+lsJP5BaXi3Kz
=wFXr
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sorry I meant my pants were blown out at the seams. I'll need to lay off the
donuts for next season.

and the chili !

"Bobsprit" wrote in message
et...
sorry I meant my pants were blown out at the seams. I'll need to lay off
the
donuts for next season.