"Chris Malcolm" wrote in message
...
"Lindsay" writes:

I would say that on average the forecast is 50% correct which obviously
means that they are wrong 50% of the time although never counted.

If you predict that tomorrow will be like today you're right more than
50% of the time.


And if the Isobar charts are predicted to be very simillar tommorow as they
are today then the weather is nearly gaurenteed to be the same!.

I use this tactic all the time, watch the webcams every day, and if the
weathers good today and the air movement is predicted to be the same
tomorrow I head up north. Fantastic sucess rate, my last 70 Munros have been
cloud free!

"Lindsay" wrote in message

Radio Scotland is fine when you don't have access to a computer but
their service isn't that reliable firstly because they change the
timings to suit any programme change or it is on FM and not MW or vice
versa. Try finding a forecast on Sunday evening there is none.

Agreed, annoying to have to switch furiously between FM and AM just before
7pm in hope that you get the right station. But if you are away from home
and unable to get online, it is the only hill forcast going!

It is sometimes available on a Sunday! I once accidently heard it on the
radio at 10pm .....3 hours late!


I also suspect that the morning forecast on Saturday and Sunday is a
repeat of what they say the evening before. I say that because one
evening I listened to the forecast and they made an error. The same
error was repeated in the morning forecast so they are just reading
from a script which they are not updating regularly. I think they
would rather we paid for this service. Not much change when there are
free sites on the internet like Geoff Monks.

I would say that on average the forecast is 50% correct which obviously
means that they are wrong 50% of the time although never counted.


Thhey are much better than that, even I can achieve much better than 50%



Lindsay
www.caledoniahilltreks.com

On 6/7/05 09:45, in article , "Peter Clinch"
wrote:

Local Weather For Local People? Not any more if the Met Office have
their way.

Well, as much as I sympathise, I don't think it necessarily follows that you
have to be in Aberdeen to forecast the weather in the Cairngorms, in today's
age of satellites.

Unless of course all the staff in the Met Office's Centre Of Excellence were
employed to look out the window and see if the cows were lying down or not.
I accept that being local would be advantagious in that scenario.

Al

Al Downie wrote:

Unless of course all the staff in the Met Office's Centre Of Excellence
were employed to look out the window and see if the cows were lying down
or not. I accept that being local would be advantagious in that scenario.

They could probably do that with a webcam, but there's no substitute for
being there in person to see if the seaweed is damp or not.

Al Downie wrote:

Well, as much as I sympathise, I don't think it necessarily follows that you
have to be in Aberdeen to forecast the weather in the Cairngorms, in today's
age of satellites.

Indeed not, but it might help if you frequently look at the Cairngorm
information in person based on a personal knowledge of the weather in
the area. Which you're less likely to have if you're A Random Met
Office Employee based in Exeter rather than someone living in the broad
overall area with specific responsibility to forecast for it.

There's more to it than just looking at pictures, or indeed out of the
window.

Pete.
--
Peter Clinch Medical Physics IT Officer
Tel 44 1382 660111 ext. 33637 Univ. of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital
Fax 44 1382 640177 Dundee DD1 9SY Scotland UK
net http://www.dundee.ac.uk/~pjclinch/