Most hypothermia victims (from memory, and no, I don't have the stats here
to back this up, though a search may provide same) die in relatively warm
water (65-72F)

According to the ACA report, "Critical Judgment - Understanding and
Preventing Canoe and Kayak Fatalities," "In the USCG data, just over half of
all fatalities for which water temperature was known occurred in water that was
less than 65 degrees Fahrenheit." This of course refers to both kayaking and
canoeing fatalities. From my own memory I seem to recall that the overwhelming
majority of sea kayaking fatalities which I have read about generally occurred
in colder water. But I could be mistaken. Your information may apply to all
recreational boating fatalities which is neither here nor there.

This stat surprised me, but it is an indicator how people may judge themself
safe in conditions where there is still considerable risk. You and I both
know that you can stay in the water off Calif. for much longer in a wetsuit
than without. Does that ensure safety or survival - no. Still, my son can
bob along in a wetsuit for hours in 55F water, for only a few seconds
without. There is no doubt that he, along with everyone else, is safer
wearing immersion gear.

You just said that being able to spend more time in the water does not
ensure safety or survival. You also say that there is no doubt that everyone is
safer wearing immersion gear. I don't understand. What being dressed for the
water does is prolong your exposure time - that's all! Or to put it another
way, it buys you time before you die. Does this make you safer? It can. Unless
the extra protection creates a false sense of security causing people to "judge
themself safe in conditions where there is still considerable risk." Or unless
it causes people to take additional risks, such as rolling to cool down. Derek
Hutchinson is often quoted as saying something like, learning to roll is a
great success, but needing to roll is a result of failure. I am not so sure
that encouraging someone to intentionally capsize to try to get comfortable in
hot clothing is really such a good idea. But that may be yet another topic for
another time.

I disagree. All accidents have root causes and the severity of damages can
be assessed for their common conditions

Let me rehash an example I have used before. Some time ago I was ill for
about a week. I decided I needed to see the doctor. But when I called the
earliest appointment I could make was about a week away. When the day of
appointment came around I was feeling much better so I canceled the visit. Had
I been allowed to promptly get in a see the doctor when I first called then I
would have no doubt given the doctor the credit for my recovery despite the
fact that I got better just the same without him. You simply cannot account for
what the alternative outcomes might have been. If a person dies without proper
gear, you cannot say with any actual certainty that they would have survived
had they had the gear, particularly since so many have died with all of the
right gear as well.

In May two experienced paddlers that I understand were wearing drysuits and
pfd's were found dead in the water in Nootka Sound. We don't know what happened
to them to cause their deaths. We can, however, be fairly certain that their
rescue and safety gear was not much help.

While I agree that potential outcomes are not predictable, when someone
capsizes and complains about the cold, it is very easy to prove that they
were inadequately dressed and that their chance of survival would be greater
if properly dressed.

Perhaps. But how much time do you actually need? I teach kayaking year round
and generally dress for the air. I demonstrate wet exits and solo rescues in
water as low as the low fifties, and rarely wear anything more then shorts,
shirt and a paddling jacket. Do I get cold? You bet! Am I inadequately dressed
to the point of significantly reducing my chances of survival? Well, in ten
years of teaching I'm still alive. I must be doing right.
I pretty much dress the same way when I'm surfing or touring. But then, I
never even consider coming out of the boat. I can't remember the last time I
actually had to do a wet exit. But if I did I can assure you that I would
manage to get back into my boat again long before hypothermia became a problem.
Of course I'm probably a bit more competent then the average paddler. But there
again is an example that what works for me may not be right for you. I am not
telling anyone to do things the way I do. I am just saying that I know what
works for me.

This is my choice of how I paddle. Others want to
avoid the water and assume they will not need the protection. Fine. On a
personal basis, however, I don't want to paddle with such individuals as
they endanger me.

This, of course, is your choice. I, on the other hand, will paddle with just
about anybody. Just as I am confident in my ability to take care of myself, I
am equally confident in my ability to take care of the people I am with. I have
made open water crossings and played in rocks and caves and surf with complete
novices. I have performed many a rescue under a variety of circumstances and at
no time felt that I was ever in any danger from the other persons lack of skill
or preparedness. I did go on one trip with a fellow who had absolutely no
common sense whatsoever. He frighten me, and I will no longer paddle with him.

Scott
So.Cal.