DEMOCRATS IN TROUBLE

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

Published in the The New York Post on September 5, 2008

The convention floor was abuzz all yesterday with the news of the CBS poll
showing a dead tie (42-42) in the presidential race. And the poll, conducted
through Wednesday, couldn't reflect the impact of John McCain's speech, or
the full impact of Sarah Palin's late Wednesday night. It reflected opinions
only after the Democrats' convention, Barack Obama's incredible speech, the
Palin selection and the early, Gustav-depressed GOP gathering.

That augers ill for the Democrats. Tonight's polling could bring evidence
that the Obama candidacy is in big trouble.

First, the GOP convention managed to disprove the central premise of the
Democratic assault on McCain: that he is a clone of President Bush. The
Republicans wisely marginalized Bush to a non-prime-time videotaped speech,
and sprinkled disappearing dust on Dick Cheney.

The speeches, and the very fact of the Palin designation, repudiated
Washington and focused on how McCain is an agent of change - this ticket is
populist, reformist, anti-establishment, grass-roots and anti-corruption.

And McCain last night made the point plain: "Let me offer an advance warning
to the old, big-spending, do-nothing, me-first-country-second Washington
crowd: Change is coming."

If Bush were the nominee, this campaign wouldn't suffice to push voters away
from Obama. But now that McCain has moved decisively away from the
administration, Obama's lost much (at least) of his advantage on the issue
of reform. Now other doubts about Obama could elect McCain.

The turning point was the designation of Palin and the personal attacks on
her. By stirring up a storm, Democrats assured that Palin would speak to 37
million Americans - just a million fewer than watched Obama's acceptance
speech.

Anecdotal evidence already suggests that women may have a gut reaction to
the establishment's sexist assault on a woman candidate - and flock to
McCain. They've seen him stake everything on this one big move of turning
toward a woman - in direct contrast to Obama's deliberate decision not to
name a woman.

They've seen the media and Democrats gang up on her and do their worst. And
they've seen Palin stand up and stuff the challenge right back down the
establishment's throat. All this may have created an entirely new dynamic in
the race.

Now the Republicans must battle to underscore the threats this country
faces, economically and internationally, and that we can't let an ingenue
take over. They must capitalize on McCain's aggressive determination to
bring reform to Washington and to emphasize Obama's inexperience and failure
to grasp how to change Washington.

But it was McCain's gutsy selection of Palin that opened the door to
victory.


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