BoatBanter.com

BoatBanter.com (https://www.boatbanter.com/)
-   General (https://www.boatbanter.com/general/)
-   -   There's just nothing quite like capitalism (https://www.boatbanter.com/general/90374-theres-just-nothing-quite-like-capitalism.html)

HK January 30th 08 01:23 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t

D.Duck[_2_] January 30th 08 01:49 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 

"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t


In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs squarely
on the shoulders of those that received the loans.

In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what could/would
happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every minute".



[email protected] January 30th 08 01:59 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 08:49:05 -0500, D.Duck wrote:

"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t


In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs
squarely on the shoulders of those that received the loans.


True, but I'm a little more sympathetic to the homeowners as they aren't
the professionals in the relationship. I also have no sympathy for the
professionals if there was fraud involved.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7216602.stm

Greed does funny things. In this case, it could take down the world's
economy.



In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what
could/would happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every minute".



JoeSpareBedroom January 30th 08 02:12 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
"D.Duck" wrote in message
...

"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t


In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs
squarely on the shoulders of those that received the loans.

In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what could/would
happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every minute".



A female companion of mine wanted buy a house together a few years back. She
kept looking at houses in a ridiculously high price range. I pointed out
that if either of us lost our job, we'd be in trouble almost instantly with
the price range she was focused on. She said "Oh come on. How likely is
that?" Two weeks later, she lost her job. Gamblers shouldn't buy houses.



D.Duck[_2_] January 30th 08 02:13 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 

"JimH" wrote in message
...

"D.Duck" wrote in message
...

"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t


In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs
squarely on the shoulders of those that received the loans.

In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what could/would
happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every minute".


At what point of the deal did the lenders put a gun to the buyers head and
force them to sign?


That's my point, the home buyers must share a lot of the blame for their
decisions. The lenders played on the consumers ignorance.



JoeSpareBedroom January 30th 08 02:13 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
wrote in message
...
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 08:49:05 -0500, D.Duck wrote:

"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t


In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs
squarely on the shoulders of those that received the loans.


True, but I'm a little more sympathetic to the homeowners as they aren't
the professionals in the relationship. I also have no sympathy for the
professionals if there was fraud involved.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7216602.stm

Greed does funny things. In this case, it could take down the world's
economy.



In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what
could/would happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every minute".




There are only about 100,000 of these on the internet(s):
http://www.betterbudgeting.com/budgetformsfree.htm



HK January 30th 08 02:15 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"D.Duck" wrote in message
...
"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t

In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs
squarely on the shoulders of those that received the loans.

In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what could/would
happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every minute".



A female companion of mine wanted buy a house together a few years back. She
kept looking at houses in a ridiculously high price range. I pointed out
that if either of us lost our job, we'd be in trouble almost instantly with
the price range she was focused on. She said "Oh come on. How likely is
that?" Two weeks later, she lost her job. Gamblers shouldn't buy houses.



There are problems rampant in all sectors of the home mortgage business,
and most of them predate the current crisis. Some of them have to do
with the tax laws.


--
George W. Bush - Worst President Ever, to the very last minute of the
very last day of his term.

JoeSpareBedroom January 30th 08 02:18 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
"D.Duck" wrote in message
...

"JimH" wrote in message
...

"D.Duck" wrote in message
...

"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t

In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs
squarely on the shoulders of those that received the loans.

In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what
could/would happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every minute".


At what point of the deal did the lenders put a gun to the buyers head
and force them to sign?


That's my point, the home buyers must share a lot of the blame for their
decisions. The lenders played on the consumers ignorance.



I was annoyed when my mortgage broker pulled out a budget worksheet to
prequalify me. I told her I'd worked out the number a dozen times. I'd
brought the worksheets with me. She said "I know, but I'm not comfortable
without spending a few minutes on this." Her method came up with results
that matched mine, give or take fifty bucks, as far as the mortgage payment
I could afford. She said "You'd be surprised how few borrowers bother to do
this."



D.Duck[_2_] January 30th 08 02:43 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 

"JimH" wrote in message
...

"D.Duck" wrote in message
...

"JimH" wrote in message
...

"D.Duck" wrote in message
...

"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t

In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs
squarely on the shoulders of those that received the loans.

In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what
could/would happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every minute".


At what point of the deal did the lenders put a gun to the buyers head
and force them to sign?


That's my point, the home buyers must share a lot of the blame for their
decisions.


I realize that.

The lenders played on the consumers ignorance.


Perhaps, but perhaps not.

But if someone is signing for a 6 figure loan without knowing the type of
loan or if the payments fit into their budget I have no sympathy for them.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer ran a series of stories about a couple of these
poor *victims*. In one case a lady was given $500,000 as an out of court
settlement for the death (drowning) of her son at a church's pool. She
buys a house (cash), a Lexus and then promptly blows the rest of the money
in a short time.

Not having money left she tries to get a loan off the equity in her house
and signs for a loan she could not afford. She loses her house. Poor
lady.

Another example is a guy earning $75,000/year signing into an ARM with
payments at around $800/month on his $130,000 house. Over a short time
the rates went up and his payments jumped to $1,300/month which he said he
could not afford. He eventually lost his house to the lender.

He promptly blamed the lender as he said he did not know what an ARM was.
Doh!

BTW: He also spends $1,200/month on the lottery.


You just keep reinforcing my argument.



BAR January 30th 08 02:46 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
JimH wrote:
"D.Duck" wrote in message
...
"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t

In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs
squarely on the shoulders of those that received the loans.

In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what could/would
happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every minute".


At what point of the deal did the lenders put a gun to the buyers head and
force them to sign?


Minors and idiots should not be allowed to enter into contracts. I put
most of the blame for this on Congress and the lenders.





[email protected] January 30th 08 02:46 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 09:30:17 -0500, JimH wrote:


He promptly blamed the lender as he said he did not know what an ARM
was. Doh!


Summary of sub-prime write-downs in Q4
UBS $13.7 bln
Citigroup $13.7 bln
Morgan Stanley $10.3 bln
Merrill Lynch $8.4 bln
HSBC $3.4 bln
Bank of America $3.3 bln
Deutsche Bank $3.1 bln
Barclays $2.7 bln
Royal Bank of Scotland $2.6 bln
Credit Agricole $2.3 bln
Bear Stearns $1.9 bln
Credit Suisse $1.9 bln
JP Morgan Chase $1.6 bln
Goldman Sachs $1.5 bln
Wachovia Bank $1.1 bln
Lehman Brothers $0.8 bln
SunTrust Bank $0.6 bln
Total: $72,900,000,000 and counting!

I guess the lender didn't know what an ARM was either.

D.Duck[_2_] January 30th 08 02:54 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 

wrote in message
...
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 09:30:17 -0500, JimH wrote:


He promptly blamed the lender as he said he did not know what an ARM
was. Doh!


Summary of sub-prime write-downs in Q4
UBS $13.7 bln
Citigroup $13.7 bln
Morgan Stanley $10.3 bln
Merrill Lynch $8.4 bln
HSBC $3.4 bln
Bank of America $3.3 bln
Deutsche Bank $3.1 bln
Barclays $2.7 bln
Royal Bank of Scotland $2.6 bln
Credit Agricole $2.3 bln
Bear Stearns $1.9 bln
Credit Suisse $1.9 bln
JP Morgan Chase $1.6 bln
Goldman Sachs $1.5 bln
Wachovia Bank $1.1 bln
Lehman Brothers $0.8 bln
SunTrust Bank $0.6 bln
Total: $72,900,000,000 and counting!

I guess the lender didn't know what an ARM was either.


Yep, the lenders screwed up big time. How in hell they thought the loan
recipients were going to be able make the payments when the ARM kicked in is
beyond me.

60 Minutes had a piece on the debacle last Sunday. Simply put is was greed.
All along the food chain people/institutions were getting there commission.
It some respects it was kind of like a Ponzi scheme.

The 60 Minutes story reported that it was extremely easy to get a loan and
figures on applications were not even verified.



JoeSpareBedroom January 30th 08 02:54 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
"BAR" wrote in message
. ..
JimH wrote:
"D.Duck" wrote in message
...
"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t
In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs
squarely on the shoulders of those that received the loans.

In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what
could/would happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every minute".


At what point of the deal did the lenders put a gun to the buyers head
and force them to sign?


Minors and idiots should not be allowed to enter into contracts. I put
most of the blame for this on Congress and the lenders.



Minors already can't enter into contracts, at least in NY. Not sure if
that's federal law, or state. Idiots...it would be tricky to limit them from
entering into contracts. It would wreck the economy, since you're talking
about 54% of the country.



HK January 30th 08 02:55 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
wrote:
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 09:30:17 -0500, JimH wrote:


He promptly blamed the lender as he said he did not know what an ARM
was. Doh!


Summary of sub-prime write-downs in Q4
UBS $13.7 bln
Citigroup $13.7 bln
Morgan Stanley $10.3 bln
Merrill Lynch $8.4 bln
HSBC $3.4 bln
Bank of America $3.3 bln
Deutsche Bank $3.1 bln
Barclays $2.7 bln
Royal Bank of Scotland $2.6 bln
Credit Agricole $2.3 bln
Bear Stearns $1.9 bln
Credit Suisse $1.9 bln
JP Morgan Chase $1.6 bln
Goldman Sachs $1.5 bln
Wachovia Bank $1.1 bln
Lehman Brothers $0.8 bln
SunTrust Bank $0.6 bln
Total: $72,900,000,000 and counting!

I guess the lender didn't know what an ARM was either.



Why should the execs worry with their golden parachutes?

D.Duck[_2_] January 30th 08 03:06 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 

"JimH" wrote in message
...

"D.Duck" wrote in message
...

"JimH" wrote in message
...

"D.Duck" wrote in message
...

"JimH" wrote in message
...

"D.Duck" wrote in message
...

"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t

In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs
squarely on the shoulders of those that received the loans.

In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what
could/would happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every
minute".


At what point of the deal did the lenders put a gun to the buyers head
and force them to sign?

That's my point, the home buyers must share a lot of the blame for
their decisions.

I realize that.

The lenders played on the consumers ignorance.


Perhaps, but perhaps not.

But if someone is signing for a 6 figure loan without knowing the type
of loan or if the payments fit into their budget I have no sympathy for
them.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer ran a series of stories about a couple of
these poor *victims*. In one case a lady was given $500,000 as an out
of court settlement for the death (drowning) of her son at a church's
pool. She buys a house (cash), a Lexus and then promptly blows the rest
of the money in a short time.

Not having money left she tries to get a loan off the equity in her
house and signs for a loan she could not afford. She loses her house.
Poor lady.

Another example is a guy earning $75,000/year signing into an ARM with
payments at around $800/month on his $130,000 house. Over a short time
the rates went up and his payments jumped to $1,300/month which he said
he could not afford. He eventually lost his house to the lender.

He promptly blamed the lender as he said he did not know what an ARM
was. Doh!

BTW: He also spends $1,200/month on the lottery.


You just keep reinforcing my argument.


Doh, I realize that. What I am also reinforcing is the fact that the
banks should not be blamed at all. You seem to put some blame on them.
That is *my* point.


Not true. I don't hold the lending institutions blameless at all. They
were accepting applications where the figures were not even verified.

I very clearly stated in my initial post "That doesn't excuse the lenders."



BAR January 30th 08 03:06 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
JimH wrote:
"D.Duck" wrote in message
...
"JimH" wrote in message
...
"D.Duck" wrote in message
...
"JimH" wrote in message
...
"D.Duck" wrote in message
...
"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t
In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs
squarely on the shoulders of those that received the loans.

In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what
could/would happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every minute".

At what point of the deal did the lenders put a gun to the buyers head
and force them to sign?
That's my point, the home buyers must share a lot of the blame for their
decisions.
I realize that.

The lenders played on the consumers ignorance.

Perhaps, but perhaps not.

But if someone is signing for a 6 figure loan without knowing the type of
loan or if the payments fit into their budget I have no sympathy for
them.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer ran a series of stories about a couple of
these poor *victims*. In one case a lady was given $500,000 as an out of
court settlement for the death (drowning) of her son at a church's pool.
She buys a house (cash), a Lexus and then promptly blows the rest of the
money in a short time.

Not having money left she tries to get a loan off the equity in her house
and signs for a loan she could not afford. She loses her house. Poor
lady.

Another example is a guy earning $75,000/year signing into an ARM with
payments at around $800/month on his $130,000 house. Over a short time
the rates went up and his payments jumped to $1,300/month which he said
he could not afford. He eventually lost his house to the lender.

He promptly blamed the lender as he said he did not know what an ARM was.
Doh!

BTW: He also spends $1,200/month on the lottery.

You just keep reinforcing my argument.


Doh, I realize that. What I am also reinforcing is the fact that the banks
should not be blamed at all. You seem to put some blame on them. That is
*my* point.


The banks are selling the loans. They advertise the loans, they entice
and encourage the buyers sign on the dotted line. The banks have some
culpable in the sub-prime problems. They guys who bought the mortgages
are culpable too. Nobody gets away from this without some responsibility.






Reginald P. Smithers III[_9_] January 30th 08 03:41 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
wrote:
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 09:30:17 -0500, JimH wrote:


He promptly blamed the lender as he said he did not know what an ARM
was. Doh!


Summary of sub-prime write-downs in Q4
UBS $13.7 bln
Citigroup $13.7 bln
Morgan Stanley $10.3 bln
Merrill Lynch $8.4 bln
HSBC $3.4 bln
Bank of America $3.3 bln
Deutsche Bank $3.1 bln
Barclays $2.7 bln
Royal Bank of Scotland $2.6 bln
Credit Agricole $2.3 bln
Bear Stearns $1.9 bln
Credit Suisse $1.9 bln
JP Morgan Chase $1.6 bln
Goldman Sachs $1.5 bln
Wachovia Bank $1.1 bln
Lehman Brothers $0.8 bln
SunTrust Bank $0.6 bln
Total: $72,900,000,000 and counting!

I guess the lender didn't know what an ARM was either.


I am very familiar with the real estate industry. Originators make
their money by getting loans approved. They were fudging info on
applications, builders where over pricing the homes so they could
finance the sub-prime rates and rebates etc, knowing the homeowner would
be in deep **** when the rates went up.

Short Wave Sportfishing January 30th 08 04:01 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 14:46:18 -0000, wrote:

On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 09:30:17 -0500, JimH wrote:


He promptly blamed the lender as he said he did not know what an ARM
was. Doh!


Summary of sub-prime write-downs in Q4
UBS $13.7 bln
Citigroup $13.7 bln
Morgan Stanley $10.3 bln
Merrill Lynch $8.4 bln
HSBC $3.4 bln
Bank of America $3.3 bln
Deutsche Bank $3.1 bln
Barclays $2.7 bln
Royal Bank of Scotland $2.6 bln
Credit Agricole $2.3 bln
Bear Stearns $1.9 bln
Credit Suisse $1.9 bln
JP Morgan Chase $1.6 bln
Goldman Sachs $1.5 bln
Wachovia Bank $1.1 bln
Lehman Brothers $0.8 bln
SunTrust Bank $0.6 bln
Total: $72,900,000,000 and counting!

I guess the lender didn't know what an ARM was either.


There is a curious dynamic going on in the sub-prime blame game that
is annoying me to no end.

Think about what 72 billion is compared to the 13.7 Trillion dollar
economy. Pocket change. And it's being written down in value so next
year, it's as if it didn't exist and you start over.

Due to Greenspan's laissez-faire attitude towards national money
supply, there was an excess of capital that was available for loan
floats - in short, lots of cash that needed to be invested or put to
work in some fashion.

Once you have people throwing money at you, it's natural to take
advantage of it. It's also natural for people to over estimate their
ability to pay down debt based not on yesterday, but on tomorrow. Hey,
want a low rate ARM for two years at 2% on $500K - hell, I can flip
the house in two years for a $800k the way the real estate market is
going - whoo hoo!! They don't think about what happened in other
bubbles that happened yesterday - the future becomes fact even if it's
based on fantasy. Additionally, everybody knows somebody who knows
somebody who made a cool $500K selling their house. Yep.

So, what happens now is that banks are holding huge amounts of asset
debt - mortgages are like accounts recievable (only different) and
considered assets. And what do you do with assets - you try and
increase their net worth over time multiplying their asset value. And
what's a good way to do that? Why sell the mortgage debt to long term
investors.

Which led to complex financial investment instruments like CDOs, SIVs,
CDO squared, CDO-n (in which CDO collatarized over CDO which
collatarized other CDOs), etc., basically slicing up bits and pieces
of mortgages into holdings for investors. Take one with $100K,
another with $200k, another with $50k and sell a $350K mortgage to
these three investors and collect the servicing fee - a cool .5% or so
of the total package. Do that a few times over and your are making
more money which you can dump back into...well, you get the point.

Once you get locked into a cycle of derivitive debt, all bets are off
because the incentive is to make more money - a classic bubble.

So, to put it plainly, nobody is really at fault (other than those who
practiced outright fraud which is a very minor part of all this).

With one exception - Greenspan and that's only because he kept the
money supply too high. Having said that, it's not his fault either
because he did what he had to do to get the economy on track after
'87, '92 and 2001.

Everybody owns a piece of it. The real question is what to do about
it.

My opinion is the same as Jim Cramer and Barney Frank - let the US
Treasury buy the assets of the mortgage insurers and basically put
them out of business. Then take the good assets and sell them off to
somebody like Buffett (or others) with an incentive discount, take the
lousy assets and junk 'em for what ever they can get. That will
stabilize the market.

Then you can put the insurance companies back into the game by putting
rules in place that brings the mortagage lending practices back to
what worked before - verification of income and ability to pay based
on monthly/yearly income and expenses.

In short, put some sanity back into the market.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)

Tim January 30th 08 04:54 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
This reminds me. I wonder what the local dentist (NOYB) is putting up
with nowdays?

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 14:46:18 -0000, wrote:

On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 09:30:17 -0500, JimH wrote:


He promptly blamed the lender as he said he did not know what an ARM
was. Doh!


Summary of sub-prime write-downs in Q4
UBS $13.7 bln
Citigroup $13.7 bln
Morgan Stanley $10.3 bln
Merrill Lynch $8.4 bln
HSBC $3.4 bln
Bank of America $3.3 bln
Deutsche Bank $3.1 bln
Barclays $2.7 bln
Royal Bank of Scotland $2.6 bln
Credit Agricole $2.3 bln
Bear Stearns $1.9 bln
Credit Suisse $1.9 bln
JP Morgan Chase $1.6 bln
Goldman Sachs $1.5 bln
Wachovia Bank $1.1 bln
Lehman Brothers $0.8 bln
SunTrust Bank $0.6 bln
Total: $72,900,000,000 and counting!

I guess the lender didn't know what an ARM was either.


There is a curious dynamic going on in the sub-prime blame game that
is annoying me to no end.

Think about what 72 billion is compared to the 13.7 Trillion dollar
economy. Pocket change. And it's being written down in value so next
year, it's as if it didn't exist and you start over.

Due to Greenspan's laissez-faire attitude towards national money
supply, there was an excess of capital that was available for loan
floats - in short, lots of cash that needed to be invested or put to
work in some fashion.

Once you have people throwing money at you, it's natural to take
advantage of it. It's also natural for people to over estimate their
ability to pay down debt based not on yesterday, but on tomorrow. Hey,
want a low rate ARM for two years at 2% on $500K - hell, I can flip
the house in two years for a $800k the way the real estate market is
going - whoo hoo!! They don't think about what happened in other
bubbles that happened yesterday - the future becomes fact even if it's
based on fantasy. Additionally, everybody knows somebody who knows
somebody who made a cool $500K selling their house. Yep.

So, what happens now is that banks are holding huge amounts of asset
debt - mortgages are like accounts recievable (only different) and
considered assets. And what do you do with assets - you try and
increase their net worth over time multiplying their asset value. And
what's a good way to do that? Why sell the mortgage debt to long term
investors.

Which led to complex financial investment instruments like CDOs, SIVs,
CDO squared, CDO-n (in which CDO collatarized over CDO which
collatarized other CDOs), etc., basically slicing up bits and pieces
of mortgages into holdings for investors. Take one with $100K,
another with $200k, another with $50k and sell a $350K mortgage to
these three investors and collect the servicing fee - a cool .5% or so
of the total package. Do that a few times over and your are making
more money which you can dump back into...well, you get the point.

Once you get locked into a cycle of derivitive debt, all bets are off
because the incentive is to make more money - a classic bubble.

So, to put it plainly, nobody is really at fault (other than those who
practiced outright fraud which is a very minor part of all this).

With one exception - Greenspan and that's only because he kept the
money supply too high. Having said that, it's not his fault either
because he did what he had to do to get the economy on track after
'87, '92 and 2001.

Everybody owns a piece of it. The real question is what to do about
it.

My opinion is the same as Jim Cramer and Barney Frank - let the US
Treasury buy the assets of the mortgage insurers and basically put
them out of business. Then take the good assets and sell them off to
somebody like Buffett (or others) with an incentive discount, take the
lousy assets and junk 'em for what ever they can get. That will
stabilize the market.

Then you can put the insurance companies back into the game by putting
rules in place that brings the mortagage lending practices back to
what worked before - verification of income and ability to pay based
on monthly/yearly income and expenses.

In short, put some sanity back into the market.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)


[email protected] January 30th 08 05:07 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 16:01:54 +0000, Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:


Then you can put the insurance companies back into the game by putting
rules in place that brings the mortagage lending practices back to what
worked before - verification of income and ability to pay based on
monthly/yearly income and expenses.


Regulation? Damn, how un-Republican of you. ;-) What you say makes a
lot of sense, but this subprime fiasco seems more like Tulip Mania than a
classic bubble. I mean, what were they thinking, or not?

Did you here about the French trader that lost $7 billion? Somebody at
Societe Generale was asleep.


In short, put some sanity back into the market.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)



D.Duck[_2_] January 30th 08 05:19 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 

wrote in message
...
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 16:01:54 +0000, Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:


Then you can put the insurance companies back into the game by putting
rules in place that brings the mortagage lending practices back to what
worked before - verification of income and ability to pay based on
monthly/yearly income and expenses.


Regulation? Damn, how un-Republican of you. ;-) What you say makes a
lot of sense, but this subprime fiasco seems more like Tulip Mania than a
classic bubble. I mean, what were they thinking, or not?



NOT!


Did you here about the French trader that lost $7 billion? Somebody at
Societe Generale was asleep.


In short, put some sanity back into the market.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)





JoeSpareBedroom January 30th 08 05:27 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
"John" wrote in message
...

"JoeSpareBedroom" wrote in message
...
"D.Duck" wrote in message
...

"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t

In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs
squarely on the shoulders of those that received the loans.

In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what
could/would happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every minute".



A female companion of mine wanted buy a house together a few years back.
She kept looking at houses in a ridiculously high price range. I pointed
out that if either of us lost our job, we'd be in trouble almost
instantly with the price range she was focused on. She said "Oh come on.
How likely is that?" Two weeks later, she lost her job. Gamblers
shouldn't buy houses.


LOL My wife and I are now empty nesters and have decided to down-size.
Unfortunately my wife's idea of down sizing is buying a larger more
expensive house. Not that it is her intention, but the only houses that
she is attracted to are MUCH larger. I keep saying the same thing - I do
not feel secure in my job so why would I want to take on a larger
mortgage...



I'm thinking now of a comment from comedian Ron White. He's talking about
the slogans used by one of the mall jewelry stores. "Diamonds - they'll
leave her speechless!" Why don't they just say what they really mean?
"Diamonds - that oughta shut her up!" :-)



HK January 30th 08 07:03 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
wrote:
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 08:54:49 -0800 (PST), Tim
wrote:

This reminds me. I wonder what the local dentist (NOYB) is putting up
with nowdays?


If he really has a house in Port Royal he might not have been hurt
that bad. The multi-million dollar market is still holding. It is the
$250k-$1m market that took most of the bath around here. Over in West
Palm where my daughter lives they are still moving the "need" houses
at about the same price. "Want" houses are taking the beating.



My mama lived over that way, and left me a condo. My uncle retired to
Boca. Now, one of his "kids" (a few years older than I am) lives in that
house and manages the condo for me. I've stayed with my "cuz," but for
some reason I've not been to the condo since my mother died. We've had
two renters in it since she died. My favorite area in that part of
Florida is Bal Harbour, a bit further south.

[email protected] January 30th 08 07:45 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
On Jan 30, 2:03*pm, HK wrote:
wrote:
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 08:54:49 -0800 (PST), Tim
wrote:


This reminds me. I wonder what the local dentist (NOYB) is putting up
with nowdays?


If he really has a house in Port Royal he might not have been hurt
that bad. The multi-million dollar market is still holding. It is the
$250k-$1m market that took most of the bath around here. Over in West
Palm where my daughter lives they are still moving the "need" houses
at about the same price. "Want" houses are taking the beating.


My mama lived over that way, and left me a condo. My uncle retired to
Boca. Now, one of his "kids" (a few years older than I am) lives in that
house and manages the condo for me. I've stayed with my "cuz," but for
some reason I've not been to the condo since my mother died. We've had
two renters in it since she died. My favorite area in that part of
Florida is Bal Harbour, a bit further south.


That's funny, you've never mentioned that to NOYB and all of the other
people here who live in that area........
Are you lobster boating us?

Short Wave Sportfishing January 30th 08 08:10 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 17:07:17 -0000, wrote:

On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 16:01:54 +0000, Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:


Then you can put the insurance companies back into the game by putting
rules in place that brings the mortagage lending practices back to what
worked before - verification of income and ability to pay based on
monthly/yearly income and expenses.


Regulation? Damn, how un-Republican of you. ;-)


Not so much regulation as policy. There will always be situations
that don't fit the local market conditions, or non-classic buyers who
have considerations other than those I mentioned, which local bankers
and underwriters can evaluate properly.

What you say makes a lot of sense, but this subprime fiasco seems
more like Tulip Mania than a classic bubble. I mean, what were they
thinking, or not?


With respect to tulips, the analogy isn't exactly "perfect" in the
sense that there are some arguments about the true cause of the Tulip
Mania Bubble by some fairly competent historians.

However, as popularly explained, the housing bubble is exactly like
the Tulip Mania Bubble which is the classic case. Prices will go up
forever - ergo, you can't lose money because you will always make
money.

While true over time, it's generally not true over the short term (say
5 years as opposed to 13 years). For instance properties I've owned
until recently that appreciated in terms of real market value (as
opposed to fair market value) 90% since a point in 2001 - one house
that I still have was bought at $132K and was bank appraised last week
at $234,000 (fair value $219k) and I have an offer of $230k.

That's what most people were counting on with the low ARMs - get in
low and sell high.

Only it didn't work that way. :)

Did you here about the French trader that lost $7 billion? Somebody at
Societe Generale was asleep.


And entirely believable oddly enough. Certainly the trader's
supervisors were asleep at the switch, but one single trader can, and
has done before, bought into futures trades on their own and ruined
financial institutions.

What I find interesting is how Soc Gen unwound the trades - that was
total incompetance.


HK January 30th 08 08:16 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
wrote:
On Jan 30, 2:03 pm, HK wrote:
wrote:
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 08:54:49 -0800 (PST), Tim
wrote:
This reminds me. I wonder what the local dentist (NOYB) is putting up
with nowdays?
If he really has a house in Port Royal he might not have been hurt
that bad. The multi-million dollar market is still holding. It is the
$250k-$1m market that took most of the bath around here. Over in West
Palm where my daughter lives they are still moving the "need" houses
at about the same price. "Want" houses are taking the beating.

My mama lived over that way, and left me a condo. My uncle retired to
Boca. Now, one of his "kids" (a few years older than I am) lives in that
house and manages the condo for me. I've stayed with my "cuz," but for
some reason I've not been to the condo since my mother died. We've had
two renters in it since she died. My favorite area in that part of
Florida is Bal Harbour, a bit further south.


That's funny, you've never mentioned that to NOYB and all of the other
people here who live in that area........
Are you lobster boating us?




You dumb foch, my mother's condo is in the Palm Beach area, "Over in
West Palm," as gfretwell was discussion. And my cuz lives in Boca, which
is why she manages the property. Look at a map, figure it out.

Vic Smith January 30th 08 08:43 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 09:55:10 -0500, HK wrote:

wrote:
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 09:30:17 -0500, JimH wrote:


He promptly blamed the lender as he said he did not know what an ARM
was. Doh!


Summary of sub-prime write-downs in Q4
UBS $13.7 bln
Citigroup $13.7 bln
Morgan Stanley $10.3 bln
Merrill Lynch $8.4 bln
HSBC $3.4 bln
Bank of America $3.3 bln
Deutsche Bank $3.1 bln
Barclays $2.7 bln
Royal Bank of Scotland $2.6 bln
Credit Agricole $2.3 bln
Bear Stearns $1.9 bln
Credit Suisse $1.9 bln
JP Morgan Chase $1.6 bln
Goldman Sachs $1.5 bln
Wachovia Bank $1.1 bln
Lehman Brothers $0.8 bln
SunTrust Bank $0.6 bln
Total: $72,900,000,000 and counting!

I guess the lender didn't know what an ARM was either.



Why should the execs worry with their golden parachutes?


That is probably the root of the problem.
Wall Street stock prices, the golden silk of the parachutes.
Greed is good.

--Vic

John H.[_3_] January 30th 08 08:48 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 10:06:25 -0500, "D.Duck" wrote:


"JimH" wrote in message
.. .

"D.Duck" wrote in message
...

"JimH" wrote in message
...

"D.Duck" wrote in message
...

"JimH" wrote in message
...

"D.Duck" wrote in message
...

"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t

In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs
squarely on the shoulders of those that received the loans.

In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what
could/would happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every
minute".


At what point of the deal did the lenders put a gun to the buyers head
and force them to sign?

That's my point, the home buyers must share a lot of the blame for
their decisions.

I realize that.

The lenders played on the consumers ignorance.


Perhaps, but perhaps not.

But if someone is signing for a 6 figure loan without knowing the type
of loan or if the payments fit into their budget I have no sympathy for
them.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer ran a series of stories about a couple of
these poor *victims*. In one case a lady was given $500,000 as an out
of court settlement for the death (drowning) of her son at a church's
pool. She buys a house (cash), a Lexus and then promptly blows the rest
of the money in a short time.

Not having money left she tries to get a loan off the equity in her
house and signs for a loan she could not afford. She loses her house.
Poor lady.

Another example is a guy earning $75,000/year signing into an ARM with
payments at around $800/month on his $130,000 house. Over a short time
the rates went up and his payments jumped to $1,300/month which he said
he could not afford. He eventually lost his house to the lender.

He promptly blamed the lender as he said he did not know what an ARM
was. Doh!

BTW: He also spends $1,200/month on the lottery.

You just keep reinforcing my argument.


Doh, I realize that. What I am also reinforcing is the fact that the
banks should not be blamed at all. You seem to put some blame on them.
That is *my* point.


Not true. I don't hold the lending institutions blameless at all. They
were accepting applications where the figures were not even verified.

I very clearly stated in my initial post "That doesn't excuse the lenders."


Jimmie is saying the banks have no fault in the matter. He says, "...the
banks should not be blamed...".

Which is horse****, but that's what he's saying.
--
John H

John H.[_3_] January 30th 08 08:50 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 10:06:36 -0500, BAR wrote:

JimH wrote:
"D.Duck" wrote in message
...
"JimH" wrote in message
...
"D.Duck" wrote in message
...
"JimH" wrote in message
...
"D.Duck" wrote in message
...
"HK" wrote in message
...
http://tinyurl.com/2cqv7t
In my mind a lot of the blame for the home mortgage crisis belongs
squarely on the shoulders of those that received the loans.

In their quest to get into a home they failed to analyze what
could/would happen when the inevitable rate changes came along.

That doesn't excuse the lenders. "There's a sucker born every minute".

At what point of the deal did the lenders put a gun to the buyers head
and force them to sign?
That's my point, the home buyers must share a lot of the blame for their
decisions.
I realize that.

The lenders played on the consumers ignorance.

Perhaps, but perhaps not.

But if someone is signing for a 6 figure loan without knowing the type of
loan or if the payments fit into their budget I have no sympathy for
them.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer ran a series of stories about a couple of
these poor *victims*. In one case a lady was given $500,000 as an out of
court settlement for the death (drowning) of her son at a church's pool.
She buys a house (cash), a Lexus and then promptly blows the rest of the
money in a short time.

Not having money left she tries to get a loan off the equity in her house
and signs for a loan she could not afford. She loses her house. Poor
lady.

Another example is a guy earning $75,000/year signing into an ARM with
payments at around $800/month on his $130,000 house. Over a short time
the rates went up and his payments jumped to $1,300/month which he said
he could not afford. He eventually lost his house to the lender.

He promptly blamed the lender as he said he did not know what an ARM was.
Doh!

BTW: He also spends $1,200/month on the lottery.
You just keep reinforcing my argument.


Doh, I realize that. What I am also reinforcing is the fact that the banks
should not be blamed at all. You seem to put some blame on them. That is
*my* point.


The banks are selling the loans. They advertise the loans, they entice
and encourage the buyers sign on the dotted line. The banks have some
culpable in the sub-prime problems. They guys who bought the mortgages
are culpable too. Nobody gets away from this without some responsibility.


Bull****. I didn't have anything to do with it. Therefore I should get away
from this without some responsibility.

Oh, wait, I forgot. I voted for Bush, and it's his fault, so I must share a
portion of the blame.
--
John H

Calif Bill January 30th 08 09:19 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 17:07:17 -0000, wrote:

On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 16:01:54 +0000, Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:


Then you can put the insurance companies back into the game by putting
rules in place that brings the mortagage lending practices back to what
worked before - verification of income and ability to pay based on
monthly/yearly income and expenses.


Regulation? Damn, how un-Republican of you. ;-)


Not so much regulation as policy. There will always be situations
that don't fit the local market conditions, or non-classic buyers who
have considerations other than those I mentioned, which local bankers
and underwriters can evaluate properly.

What you say makes a lot of sense, but this subprime fiasco seems
more like Tulip Mania than a classic bubble. I mean, what were they
thinking, or not?


With respect to tulips, the analogy isn't exactly "perfect" in the
sense that there are some arguments about the true cause of the Tulip
Mania Bubble by some fairly competent historians.

However, as popularly explained, the housing bubble is exactly like
the Tulip Mania Bubble which is the classic case. Prices will go up
forever - ergo, you can't lose money because you will always make
money.

While true over time, it's generally not true over the short term (say
5 years as opposed to 13 years). For instance properties I've owned
until recently that appreciated in terms of real market value (as
opposed to fair market value) 90% since a point in 2001 - one house
that I still have was bought at $132K and was bank appraised last week
at $234,000 (fair value $219k) and I have an offer of $230k.

That's what most people were counting on with the low ARMs - get in
low and sell high.

Only it didn't work that way. :)

Did you here about the French trader that lost $7 billion? Somebody at
Societe Generale was asleep.


And entirely believable oddly enough. Certainly the trader's
supervisors were asleep at the switch, but one single trader can, and
has done before, bought into futures trades on their own and ruined
financial institutions.

What I find interesting is how Soc Gen unwound the trades - that was
total incompetance.


Lots of those upside down loans, at least out here, were speculators.
Counting on a 20% / year growth. A few out here are stuck with 5+ houses.



Short Wave Sportfishing January 30th 08 09:20 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 13:19:11 -0800, "Calif Bill"
wrote:

Lots of those upside down loans, at least out here, were speculators.
Counting on a 20% / year growth. A few out here are stuck with 5+ houses.


Proves the point doesn't it.

HK January 30th 08 09:20 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
Calif Bill wrote:
"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 17:07:17 -0000, wrote:

On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 16:01:54 +0000, Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:


Then you can put the insurance companies back into the game by putting
rules in place that brings the mortagage lending practices back to what
worked before - verification of income and ability to pay based on
monthly/yearly income and expenses.
Regulation? Damn, how un-Republican of you. ;-)

Not so much regulation as policy. There will always be situations
that don't fit the local market conditions, or non-classic buyers who
have considerations other than those I mentioned, which local bankers
and underwriters can evaluate properly.

What you say makes a lot of sense, but this subprime fiasco seems
more like Tulip Mania than a classic bubble. I mean, what were they
thinking, or not?

With respect to tulips, the analogy isn't exactly "perfect" in the
sense that there are some arguments about the true cause of the Tulip
Mania Bubble by some fairly competent historians.

However, as popularly explained, the housing bubble is exactly like
the Tulip Mania Bubble which is the classic case. Prices will go up
forever - ergo, you can't lose money because you will always make
money.

While true over time, it's generally not true over the short term (say
5 years as opposed to 13 years). For instance properties I've owned
until recently that appreciated in terms of real market value (as
opposed to fair market value) 90% since a point in 2001 - one house
that I still have was bought at $132K and was bank appraised last week
at $234,000 (fair value $219k) and I have an offer of $230k.

That's what most people were counting on with the low ARMs - get in
low and sell high.

Only it didn't work that way. :)

Did you here about the French trader that lost $7 billion? Somebody at
Societe Generale was asleep.

And entirely believable oddly enough. Certainly the trader's
supervisors were asleep at the switch, but one single trader can, and
has done before, bought into futures trades on their own and ruined
financial institutions.

What I find interesting is how Soc Gen unwound the trades - that was
total incompetance.


Lots of those upside down loans, at least out here, were speculators.
Counting on a 20% / year growth. A few out here are stuck with 5+ houses.




Good. They ought to be stuck, but good.

[email protected] January 30th 08 09:34 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
On Jan 30, 3:16*pm, HK wrote:
wrote:
On Jan 30, 2:03 pm, HK wrote:
wrote:
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 08:54:49 -0800 (PST), Tim
wrote:
This reminds me. I wonder what the local dentist (NOYB) is putting up
with nowdays?
If he really has a house in Port Royal he might not have been hurt
that bad. The multi-million dollar market is still holding. It is the
$250k-$1m market that took most of the bath around here. Over in West
Palm where my daughter lives they are still moving the "need" houses
at about the same price. "Want" houses are taking the beating.
My mama lived over that way, and left me a condo. My uncle retired to
Boca. Now, one of his "kids" (a few years older than I am) lives in that
house and manages the condo for me. I've stayed with my "cuz," but for
some reason I've not been to the condo since my mother died. We've had
two renters in it since she died. My favorite area in that part of
Florida is Bal Harbour, a bit further south.


That's funny, you've never mentioned that to NOYB and all of the other
people here who live in that area........
Are you lobster boating us?


You dumb foch, my mother's condo is in the Palm Beach area, "Over in
West Palm," as gfretwell was discussion. And my cuz lives in Boca, which
is why she manages the property. Look at a map, figure it out.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -


There are many people in that area, you should have mentioned it. I
really think you're lobster boating us! I don't need a map, Harry, I
lived in Florida a long time, and worked for a company that had me
travelling all over the state. Your childish name calling clearly
shows you are caught in but another lie.

HK January 30th 08 09:36 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
wrote:

I
lived in Florida a long time, and worked for a company that had me
travelling all over the state.



Who the hell would hire a slow-wit like you?

What did you do, count the expansion cracks in sidewalks?

[email protected] January 30th 08 09:45 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
On Jan 30, 4:36*pm, HK wrote:
wrote:

* I

lived in Florida a long time, and worked for a company that had me
travelling all over the state.


Who the hell would hire a slow-wit like you?

What did you do, count the expansion cracks in sidewalks?


That's great! Another idiotic, uncalled for ignorant response showing
that once again, you're caught in a lobster boat lie.....

HK January 30th 08 09:47 PM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
wrote:
On Jan 30, 4:36 pm, HK wrote:
wrote:

I

lived in Florida a long time, and worked for a company that had me
travelling all over the state.

Who the hell would hire a slow-wit like you?

What did you do, count the expansion cracks in sidewalks?


That's great! Another idiotic, uncalled for ignorant response showing
that once again, you're caught in a lobster boat lie.....



Well, there's never been the slightest indicator here that you have
talent in any area that might earn an income. Give us a clue.

John H.[_3_] January 31st 08 12:06 AM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 15:16:42 -0500, HK wrote:

wrote:
On Jan 30, 2:03 pm, HK wrote:
wrote:
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 08:54:49 -0800 (PST), Tim
wrote:
This reminds me. I wonder what the local dentist (NOYB) is putting up
with nowdays?
If he really has a house in Port Royal he might not have been hurt
that bad. The multi-million dollar market is still holding. It is the
$250k-$1m market that took most of the bath around here. Over in West
Palm where my daughter lives they are still moving the "need" houses
at about the same price. "Want" houses are taking the beating.
My mama lived over that way, and left me a condo. My uncle retired to
Boca. Now, one of his "kids" (a few years older than I am) lives in that
house and manages the condo for me. I've stayed with my "cuz," but for
some reason I've not been to the condo since my mother died. We've had
two renters in it since she died. My favorite area in that part of
Florida is Bal Harbour, a bit further south.


That's funny, you've never mentioned that to NOYB and all of the other
people here who live in that area........
Are you lobster boating us?




You dumb foch, my mother's condo is in the Palm Beach area, "Over in
West Palm," as gfretwell was discussion. And my cuz lives in Boca, which
is why she manages the property. Look at a map, figure it out.


Harry, it's OK. Someone here will believe you.
--
John H

John H.[_3_] January 31st 08 12:08 AM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 12:03:58 -0500, "John" wrote:


"D.Duck" wrote in message
m...

wrote in message
...
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 09:30:17 -0500, JimH wrote:


He promptly blamed the lender as he said he did not know what an ARM
was. Doh!

Summary of sub-prime write-downs in Q4
UBS $13.7 bln
Citigroup $13.7 bln
Morgan Stanley $10.3 bln
Merrill Lynch $8.4 bln
HSBC $3.4 bln
Bank of America $3.3 bln
Deutsche Bank $3.1 bln
Barclays $2.7 bln
Royal Bank of Scotland $2.6 bln
Credit Agricole $2.3 bln
Bear Stearns $1.9 bln
Credit Suisse $1.9 bln
JP Morgan Chase $1.6 bln
Goldman Sachs $1.5 bln
Wachovia Bank $1.1 bln
Lehman Brothers $0.8 bln
SunTrust Bank $0.6 bln
Total: $72,900,000,000 and counting!

I guess the lender didn't know what an ARM was either.


Yep, the lenders screwed up big time. How in hell they thought the loan
recipients were going to be able make the payments when the ARM kicked in
is beyond me.

60 Minutes had a piece on the debacle last Sunday. Simply put is was
greed. All along the food chain people/institutions were getting there
commission. It some respects it was kind of like a Ponzi scheme.

The 60 Minutes story reported that it was extremely easy to get a loan and
figures on applications were not even verified.


Add on top of that, because of the cheap easy money, more people were in the
market driving the housing boom, which was the only thing that kept Bush's
economy growing. My vacation home went up in value about 400%. Of course
houses are now sitting - but my taxes will never go back down.

I know a lot of people who refinanced their homes and kept taking equity
out, I know dumb - but if you get cash in hand and your mortgage payment
goes down...... I just hope that they are not caught with an adjustable
loan.


I *knew* it was Bush's fault!

At least now someone admits the economy *was* growing. That's the first
I've heard that.
--
John H

Calif Bill January 31st 08 01:56 AM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 

"HK" wrote in message
...
Calif Bill wrote:
"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 17:07:17 -0000, wrote:

On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 16:01:54 +0000, Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:


Then you can put the insurance companies back into the game by putting
rules in place that brings the mortagage lending practices back to
what
worked before - verification of income and ability to pay based on
monthly/yearly income and expenses.
Regulation? Damn, how un-Republican of you. ;-)
Not so much regulation as policy. There will always be situations
that don't fit the local market conditions, or non-classic buyers who
have considerations other than those I mentioned, which local bankers
and underwriters can evaluate properly.

What you say makes a lot of sense, but this subprime fiasco seems
more like Tulip Mania than a classic bubble. I mean, what were they
thinking, or not?
With respect to tulips, the analogy isn't exactly "perfect" in the
sense that there are some arguments about the true cause of the Tulip
Mania Bubble by some fairly competent historians.

However, as popularly explained, the housing bubble is exactly like
the Tulip Mania Bubble which is the classic case. Prices will go up
forever - ergo, you can't lose money because you will always make
money.

While true over time, it's generally not true over the short term (say
5 years as opposed to 13 years). For instance properties I've owned
until recently that appreciated in terms of real market value (as
opposed to fair market value) 90% since a point in 2001 - one house
that I still have was bought at $132K and was bank appraised last week
at $234,000 (fair value $219k) and I have an offer of $230k.

That's what most people were counting on with the low ARMs - get in
low and sell high.

Only it didn't work that way. :)

Did you here about the French trader that lost $7 billion? Somebody at
Societe Generale was asleep.
And entirely believable oddly enough. Certainly the trader's
supervisors were asleep at the switch, but one single trader can, and
has done before, bought into futures trades on their own and ruined
financial institutions.

What I find interesting is how Soc Gen unwound the trades - that was
total incompetance.


Lots of those upside down loans, at least out here, were speculators.
Counting on a 20% / year growth. A few out here are stuck with 5+
houses.



Good. They ought to be stuck, but good.


Just an example of the fallacy of the boom. Sort of like the dot.bomb boom.
And they will be saved by the loan programs that are being proposed by both
parties.



HK January 31st 08 02:09 AM

There's just nothing quite like capitalism
 
Calif Bill wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...
Calif Bill wrote:
"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 17:07:17 -0000, wrote:

On Wed, 30 Jan 2008 16:01:54 +0000, Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:


Then you can put the insurance companies back into the game by putting
rules in place that brings the mortagage lending practices back to
what
worked before - verification of income and ability to pay based on
monthly/yearly income and expenses.
Regulation? Damn, how un-Republican of you. ;-)
Not so much regulation as policy. There will always be situations
that don't fit the local market conditions, or non-classic buyers who
have considerations other than those I mentioned, which local bankers
and underwriters can evaluate properly.

What you say makes a lot of sense, but this subprime fiasco seems
more like Tulip Mania than a classic bubble. I mean, what were they
thinking, or not?
With respect to tulips, the analogy isn't exactly "perfect" in the
sense that there are some arguments about the true cause of the Tulip
Mania Bubble by some fairly competent historians.

However, as popularly explained, the housing bubble is exactly like
the Tulip Mania Bubble which is the classic case. Prices will go up
forever - ergo, you can't lose money because you will always make
money.

While true over time, it's generally not true over the short term (say
5 years as opposed to 13 years). For instance properties I've owned
until recently that appreciated in terms of real market value (as
opposed to fair market value) 90% since a point in 2001 - one house
that I still have was bought at $132K and was bank appraised last week
at $234,000 (fair value $219k) and I have an offer of $230k.

That's what most people were counting on with the low ARMs - get in
low and sell high.

Only it didn't work that way. :)

Did you here about the French trader that lost $7 billion? Somebody at
Societe Generale was asleep.
And entirely believable oddly enough. Certainly the trader's
supervisors were asleep at the switch, but one single trader can, and
has done before, bought into futures trades on their own and ruined
financial institutions.

What I find interesting is how Soc Gen unwound the trades - that was
total incompetance.

Lots of those upside down loans, at least out here, were speculators.
Counting on a 20% / year growth. A few out here are stuck with 5+
houses.


Good. They ought to be stuck, but good.


Just an example of the fallacy of the boom. Sort of like the dot.bomb boom.
And they will be saved by the loan programs that are being proposed by both
parties.




If there is any "saving" to be done, it ought to be for individual
families losing the house in which they live.


All times are GMT +1. The time now is 04:11 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ©2004 - 2014 BoatBanter.com