On Tue, 22 Jan 2008 22:08:45 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:

What's interesting is the actual proof that the oil market is over
inflated with speculation.

Everyone who buys or sells a futures contract is a speculator of
sorts. That does not necessarily mean they are greedy, nefarious
people however. A declining futures market is more a reflection of
expectations for reduced demand, rather than an indicator that present
prices are inflated by speculation.

On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 11:34:53 -0500, Wayne.B
wrote:

On Tue, 22 Jan 2008 22:08:45 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:

What's interesting is the actual proof that the oil market is over
inflated with speculation.

Everyone who buys or sells a futures contract is a speculator of
sorts. That does not necessarily mean they are greedy, nefarious
people however. A declining futures market is more a reflection of
expectations for reduced demand, rather than an indicator that present
prices are inflated by speculation.

I quite agree, but when you look at fundamentals, follow the money,
speculation is a major component of oil prices.

When you can move the price of a barrel of oil up $2. because of fog
in the Houston Shipping Channel or $2 because of a backlog at the
LOOP, that's pure speculation moving the market up - not fundamentals.

On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 17:13:03 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:

When you can move the price of a barrel of oil up $2. because of fog
in the Houston Shipping Channel or $2 because of a backlog at the
LOOP, that's pure speculation moving the market up - not fundamentals.

It's an expectation of a possible change in the fundamentals.

On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 20:35:24 -0500, Wayne.B
wrote:

On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 17:13:03 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:

When you can move the price of a barrel of oil up $2. because of fog
in the Houston Shipping Channel or $2 because of a backlog at the
LOOP, that's pure speculation moving the market up - not fundamentals.

It's an expectation of a possible change in the fundamentals.

Depends on what your metric of fundamentals is.

Delay of shipments for 8 hours is not a earth shattering fundamental
change in the supply or the demand that's worthy of a 5% change in
price.

On Thu, 24 Jan 2008 02:01:55 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:

On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 20:35:24 -0500, Wayne.B
wrote:

On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 17:13:03 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:

When you can move the price of a barrel of oil up $2. because of fog
in the Houston Shipping Channel or $2 because of a backlog at the
LOOP, that's pure speculation moving the market up - not fundamentals.

It's an expectation of a possible change in the fundamentals.

Depends on what your metric of fundamentals is.

Delay of shipments for 8 hours is not a earth shattering fundamental
change in the supply or the demand that's worthy of a 5% change in
price.

It's all in the circumstances. If you are in Houston trying to keep a
refinery running 24x7 and you are now at risk for running out of feed
stock, paying a $2 premium might be a small price compared to shutting
down the refinery and restarting it. Or, you might be contractually
on the hook to deliver a tanker load of crude by a certain date and
time with big penalties if you default. In that case it makes sense
to buy out the contract as long as the purchase premium is less than
the default penalty.