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"DownTime" wrote in message
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Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Here's what I'm thinking just based on reading things here and
there.

Democrats favor Obama, then Edwards, then Clinton, then everybody
else.

I'm thinking Obama gets out with a lead of three or four points over
Edwards in second and Clinton a very close third to Edwards - say
within a point or two. Everybody else, Dodd, Biden, Krazyinich will
all slide to less than 4% of the vote in total.

Republicans - I'm thnking Romney with an insigificant lead over
Huckabee and Thompson a strong third. Ron Paultard will show a
surprising 13% of the vote from all the Paulbots that show up from
other states.

Now I need to call my bookie. :)

Your bookie is taking action on the primaries? That is sad. I'm
assuming even the bookies are also it hard by the current real estate
slump.

Bookies make money no matter what. They set the line so all
candidates / games get the same amount of money bet on each side.
They take the vig. the difference in what is bet and what is paid out.


They "hope" the same amount of money is bet on both sides. A bookie
can loose his patooie if all the money goes to one side and that side
wins. Most times when bookies find themselves one-sided on a particular
wager they attempt to lay off the excess from the over weighted side,


That is what the line is for. Start getting too much money one way,
they change the line.

That doesn't always work. There are instances where a lay-off is the
only answer. I knew several bookies in Chicago, in fact one bought a
house of mine, and am quite familiar with their procedures.


But is real reason for the line. And smaller bookies have to lay off
bigger bets as they do not have the activity and can end up with more one
way than the other way. Have not known any bookies for a lot of years
now, but had coworkers would used them a lot.


Agreed. They wish for equal amounts on either side of a proposition. The
can live very nicely on the juice (vig).