Brightening economic outlook?
 

"Larry" wrote in message
...
"Eisboch" wrote in
:

Fortunately, that conspiracy theory is so full of holes you could use
it as a screen door.



The price of gold has fixed the value of money since way before printing
of
useless paper script. Our money is WORTHLESS, more worthless every week.
One only has to look at PRICES to see what's going on....

It's called DEVALUATION and has been used for thousands of years to cheat
the masses out of their labor, their property, their lives.


Before gold it was salt.

Eisboch

Brightening economic outlook?
 

D.Duck wrote:
"Eisboch" wrote in message
...
Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type
contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago,
is that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate
prediction of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6
months before it became a current topic of discussion in the media.

Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a
major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or
postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was
not unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost
capital equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown.

This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over
$6M in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up
substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008
will be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk
will be about how robust the US economy is.

Eisboch

Yeah right. "ALL" the talk in an election year will be about the robust US
economy, particularly in this venue. :-)

I sure hope your favorite leading indicator is right on track again this
time. Enough is enough.



House sales up in November! If you are so inclined it is time to go
rental property shopping.

Brightening economic outlook?
 

HK wrote:
Eisboch wrote:
I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust
the US economy is.

Eisboch



In the face of another half million American families losing their
homes, the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans
without health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in
the prime rate that have no impact?

Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :}

Weren't you bitching about the stringent mortgage lending rules and
American families not being able to cash in on the housing appreciation
boom? If you can't afford to buy it then leave it on the shelf.

Brightening economic outlook?
 

Eisboch wrote:
"Larry" wrote in message
...
"Eisboch" wrote in
:

Fortunately, that conspiracy theory is so full of holes you could use
it as a screen door.


The price of gold has fixed the value of money since way before printing
of
useless paper script. Our money is WORTHLESS, more worthless every week.
One only has to look at PRICES to see what's going on....

It's called DEVALUATION and has been used for thousands of years to cheat
the masses out of their labor, their property, their lives.


Before gold it was salt.

Eisboch




I thought poontang came just after salt?

Brightening economic outlook?
 

Brightening economic outlook?
 

On Jan 1, 4:31�am, "Eisboch" wrote:
Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type
contracts has certain advantages. �One of them, that I noticed years ago, is
that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction
of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before
it became a current topic of discussion in the media.

Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a
major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or
postponement of planned orders by several customers. �The situation was not
unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital
equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown.

This has all changed. �In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M
in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up
substantially. �If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will
be a very busy year. �I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be
about how robust the US economy is.

Eisboch

Well let's hope so.

Boat sales in the Pacific NW, measured in units, were off 17% 3Q07 vs.
3Q06. The Marine Trade association tired to put a bright spin on the
numbers, noting that the dollar volume of the sales was actually 1%
higher than last year. The dollar volume is less meaningful, as boats
that sell for more money also cost more money, and a 17% dip in volume
is going to wipe out a lot more gross profit than a 1% increase in
total sales dollars will restore.

The higher total dollar volume coupled with the 17% dip in unit sales
reflects the fact that Wally Lunchbucket is a lot more woried about
his job, his budget, the cost of fuel, and so forth than is Daddy
Warbucks.
I sense very little slowdown in the $500k and up market (not that it's
ever a beehive of activity).......but a lot of the small, trailer boat
guys selling new boats for under $100k are singing the blues.

Let's see what happens this spring. The economy is cyclical,
regardless of which political party is in power. Every so often it
slows down, and all the marginal operators who are so inefficient that
they are barely making it when things are booming get weeded out by
reality.
That's probably a good thing in the long run.

I do pity the poor FED. What a quandry. So much of the stuff we buy to
day is imported that low interest rates *really* fuel inflation. Not
only do people borrow for more consumer spending, but the low rates
depress the US dollar on the exchanges and as a result the prices for
almost everything go up. Raise the rates to shore up the dollar, and
while prices will not be driven up as quickly by a weak foreign
exchange our less-than-robust economy can hardly afford a slow down in
consumer spending due to higher monthly payments.

Brightening economic outlook?
 

"Eisboch" wrote in message ...
Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type
contracts has certain advantages. One of them, that I noticed years ago, is
that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction
of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before
it became a current topic of discussion in the media.

Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a
major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or
postponement of planned orders by several customers. The situation was not
unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital
equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown.

This has all changed. In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M
in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up
substantially. If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will
be a very busy year. I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be
about how robust the US economy is.

Eisboch



I hope you're right but I doubt it. The housing market
is up to its eyeballs in forclosures with more to come and
credit card debt is at an all time high.

I've worked for the same
company for 23 years (printing/machining ) and
watched our industry dwindle slowly since the early
90's. Things have sucked pretty bad for the last 2 years
and its a miricle we're still here. Unfortunately, the
writing is on the wall as we have enough money left
for about 1 more pay period. Too bad its not boating
season as it looks like I might have some free time on
my hands coming up.

Don

Brightening economic outlook?
 

On Tue, 1 Jan 2008 22:59:52 -0800 (PST), Chuck Gould
wrote:

On Jan 1, 4:31?am, "Eisboch" wrote:
Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type
contracts has certain advantages. ?One of them, that I noticed years ago, is
that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction
of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before
it became a current topic of discussion in the media.

Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a
major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or
postponement of planned orders by several customers. ?The situation was not
unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital
equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown.

This has all changed. ?In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M
in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up
substantially. ?If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will
be a very busy year. ?I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be
about how robust the US economy is.

Eisboch

Well let's hope so.

Boat sales in the Pacific NW, measured in units, were off 17% 3Q07 vs.
3Q06. The Marine Trade association tired to put a bright spin on the
numbers, noting that the dollar volume of the sales was actually 1%
higher than last year. The dollar volume is less meaningful, as boats
that sell for more money also cost more money, and a 17% dip in volume
is going to wipe out a lot more gross profit than a 1% increase in
total sales dollars will restore.

The higher total dollar volume coupled with the 17% dip in unit sales
reflects the fact that Wally Lunchbucket is a lot more woried about
his job, his budget, the cost of fuel, and so forth than is Daddy
Warbucks.
I sense very little slowdown in the $500k and up market (not that it's
ever a beehive of activity).......but a lot of the small, trailer boat
guys selling new boats for under $100k are singing the blues.

Let's see what happens this spring. The economy is cyclical,
regardless of which political party is in power. Every so often it
slows down, and all the marginal operators who are so inefficient that
they are barely making it when things are booming get weeded out by
reality.
That's probably a good thing in the long run.

I do pity the poor FED. What a quandry. So much of the stuff we buy to
day is imported that low interest rates *really* fuel inflation. Not
only do people borrow for more consumer spending, but the low rates
depress the US dollar on the exchanges and as a result the prices for
almost everything go up. Raise the rates to shore up the dollar, and
while prices will not be driven up as quickly by a weak foreign
exchange our less-than-robust economy can hardly afford a slow down in
consumer spending due to higher monthly payments.

What do you think increasing taxes will do to our 'less than robust'
economy, Chuck?
--

JohnH

"Opa of 6"

Brightening economic outlook?
 

Eisboch wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...
Eisboch wrote:
I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be about how robust the
US economy is.

Eisboch


In the face of another half million American families losing their homes,
the creation of mostly "McJob" jobs, a few million more Americans without
health insurance, slumping retail sales, and a few more cuts in the prime
rate that have no impact?

Are you pimping for a job in the remains of the Bush Administration? :}

Heh. Hardly.
Just reporting a promising trend amidst all the doom and gloom we get
saturated with everyday.

Eisboch

Well, I've said this before, that if Ebay is any kind of an economic
barometer, I've noticed that "used" boats are selling higher than the
same compatable crafts did a couple years ago. This winter which is
usually seems to be a buyers market. Boats are tending to sell for
better than in the spring time when people are boat hungry with tax
refund checks in hand.

Brightening economic outlook?
 

On Jan 2, 11:39*am, John H. wrote:
On Tue, 1 Jan 2008 22:59:52 -0800 (PST), Chuck Gould





wrote:
On Jan 1, 4:31?am, "Eisboch" wrote:
Having a small company that is involved in large, capital equipment type
contracts has certain advantages. ?One of them, that I noticed years ago, is
that the level of new orders almost always reflects an accurate prediction
of which way the general economy was heading, usually about 6 months before
it became a current topic of discussion in the media.

Last year my former company (now my oldest son's) had a tough year with a
major slowdown in new order activity and, in some cases, cancellation or
postponement of planned orders by several customers. ?The situation was not
unique to the company as many others involved in similar, high cost capital
equipment businesses experienced the same slowdown.

This has all changed. ?In the past 30 days the company has received over $6M
in new contracts and the quoting activity for more has picked up
substantially. ?If this continues, and past history says it will, 2008 will
be a very busy year. ?I'll betcha that by May or June all the talk will be
about how robust the US economy is.

Eisboch

Well let's hope so.

Boat sales in the Pacific NW, measured in units, were off 17% 3Q07 vs.
3Q06. The Marine Trade association tired to put a bright spin on the
numbers, noting that the dollar volume of the sales was actually 1%
higher than last year. The dollar volume is less meaningful, as boats
that sell for more money also cost more money, and a 17% dip in volume
is going to wipe out a lot more gross profit than a 1% increase in
total sales dollars will restore.

The higher total dollar volume coupled with the 17% dip in unit sales
reflects the fact that Wally Lunchbucket is a lot more woried about
his job, his budget, the cost of fuel, and so forth than is Daddy
Warbucks.
I sense very little slowdown in the $500k and up market (not that it's
ever a beehive of activity).......but a lot of the small, trailer boat
guys selling new boats for under $100k are singing the blues.

Let's see what happens this spring. The economy is cyclical,
regardless of which political party is in power. Every so often it
slows down, and all the marginal operators who are so inefficient that
they are barely making it when things are booming get weeded out by
reality.
That's probably a good thing in the long run.

I do pity the poor FED. What a quandry. So much of the stuff we buy to
day is imported that low interest rates *really* fuel inflation. Not
only do people borrow for more consumer spending, but the low rates
depress the US dollar on the exchanges and as a result the prices for
almost everything go up. Raise the rates to shore up the dollar, and
while prices will not be driven up as quickly by a weak foreign
exchange our less-than-robust economy can hardly afford a slow down in
consumer spending due to higher monthly payments.

What do you think increasing taxes will do to our 'less than robust'
economy, Chuck?
--

* JohnH

"Opa of 6"- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Pay for Bush's Iraq folly.