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One for the not so swift among us-
On Fri, 26 May 2006 21:38:28 -0700, -rick- wrote:
Black Dog wrote: It bothers me that people who are refered to as "scientists" (I don't know if they call themselves that) treat the results of modelling experiments like they were real data. That's not at all accurate in my experience. Having spent most of a career designing circuits by simulation I can assure you it is obvious that simulations are only as good as the associated models. Models are developed and qualified by comparing their behavior to actual measurements. There is even an old saying that serves as a warning "simulation is a lot like masturbation, if you do it enough it starts to feel like the real thing." -rick- If by "circuits" you mean electronic circuits, that's a whole different kettle of fish. Electronic circuit simulators are a well-developed, fairly mature technology. Even RF circuits can be modeled fairly accurately. These simulators have the advantage that you point out... "Models are developed and qualified by comparing their behavior to actual measurements." Simulating and modeling climate change 94 years in the future does not have that advantage. Scientist have no test climate that they can introduce variables into, and no time machine to travel 94 years into the future to measure the results. Therefore, unlike your circuit simulator, there is no way to check the output of their climate simulator against real-world results to verify its accuracy. As previously discussed, weather models can't tell us with any decent accuracy what it will be like in 5 days. Are you really telling me that you believe a climate model for 94 years into the future? Jack |
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