"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
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"RG" wrote in message
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Until we have a "hard" solution, I have an idea. Get futures traders the
phuque out of the oil business. They serve no useful purpose.

Actually they do. If your business profits are significantly influenced
by the price of oil, futures contracts pay a very important role in the
stabilization and predictability of those profits. It's called hedging.
But I suspect you knew that.

The product is too important to be left up to the whims of a bunch of
suits. And, whims is exactly what they are. Did you notice that when that
Saudi refinery was attacked a month or two ago, the price hiccup was
nothing compared to the current one, which is based on absolutely nothing?

Yes, I noticed. It may seem like the current market move is based on
absolutely nothing, but I think that is a mischaracterization. The basis
for a market movement may not be obvious, tangible, or even logical but it's
there. The market wouldn't move without it. However, you are on the right
track about whims. Markets tend to be very psychological and emotional, and
often not immediately rational. How is the recent movement in oil prices
any different than a 200 point swing up or down of the Dow on any given day?
Was there really a commensurate shift in the fundamental value of those
thirty companies during that six and a half hours of trading? Not likely.
The reason for all short-term market movements can usually be traced to the
basic motivators of fear and greed. And there is no shortage of suits that
wish they had the power to move oil prices up or down by merely wishing it
so. But it just doesn't work that way. Collective fear and greed for the
future make those short-term movements happen.

As to the event of the Saudi refinery attack, if the attack had been
successful, you would have seen a much different market reaction. As it
was, what you witnessed was a sigh of relief after a major bullet was
dodged.