10. Harry Krause
Nov 13, 6:42 pm show options

Newsgroups: rec.boats
From: Harry Krause -
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NOYB wrote:
"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:
"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:
"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
Autumn of Discontent
The latest NEWSWEEK poll shows serious political trouble for President
Bush.
WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Marcus Mabry
Newsweek
Updated: 2:00 p.m. ET Nov. 12, 2005

Nov. 12, 2005 - In the wake of the bombings in Jordan by suspected
followers of Iraq's Al Qaeda chief Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the
indictment of top White House aide I. Lewis (Scooter) Libby and the
withdrawal of Harriet Miers's nomination to the Supreme Court,
President George W. Bush is sinking deeper and deeper into political
trouble, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. Only 36 percent of
Americans approve of the job he is doing as president
They're oversampling Democrats...as usual:


"When NEWSWEEK asked registered voters whether they planned to vote for
a Democrat or a Republican in those elections, 53 percent said a
Democrat and 36 percent said a Republican"


These polls mean nothing as long as they continue to oversample
Democrats.


More likely it shows that a percentage of those who voted Republican
last
time around aren't going to do so in 2006 or 2008. Doesn;t mean they are
Repubs or Dems.
Yeah, they conveniently leave out the statistics about how many
respondents were registered Democrats vs. registered Republicans. But
the AP-Ipsos poll *did* provide that data: 52% registered Dems and 39%
registered Republicans. I'd suspect that this poll is just as badly
skewed.


But for the second day in a row, Rasmussen has Bush at 46%:
HArd to find anyone paying attention to Rasmussen and his autodialers.
Hard for someone intentionally trying to ignore it maybe.


Well, I don't watch Faux or read Fauxnewsmax.


Here is a sampling of local (and some national) news outlets that have made
mention of Rasmussen polling data in the last couple of weeks:


Fort Worth Star Telegram
Kansas City Star
Suffolk News Herald
Palm Beach Post
Richmond Times Dispatch
Washington Times
Stockton Record
St. Petersburg Times
The Free-Lance Star
Lynchburg News and Advance
Huntington Herald Dispatch
LaCrosse Tribune
Eatonville Dispatch
Bloomberg
Beaver Dam Daily Citizen
Harrisonburg Daily News Record
Daily Free Press


And then, of course, there are plenty of Conservative "news" outlets that
have carried it:
Christian Science Monitor
WorldNet Daily
Rushlimbaugh.com
etc...


You may not be reading it in your local rag...but folks around the country
are reading it in their local papers every morning.

Yes, I often read the Beaver Dam Daily, the Eatonville Dispatch, and the
Lynchburg News.

Harry, I didn't know you were really that intrested in the opinions of
"backwoods inbreds"..

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:
"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:
"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
Autumn of Discontent
The latest NEWSWEEK poll shows serious political trouble for
President Bush.
WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Marcus Mabry
Newsweek
Updated: 2:00 p.m. ET Nov. 12, 2005

Nov. 12, 2005 - In the wake of the bombings in Jordan by suspected
followers of Iraq's Al Qaeda chief Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the
indictment of top White House aide I. Lewis (Scooter) Libby and the
withdrawal of Harriet Miers's nomination to the Supreme Court,
President George W. Bush is sinking deeper and deeper into political
trouble, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. Only 36 percent of
Americans approve of the job he is doing as president
They're oversampling Democrats...as usual:

"When NEWSWEEK asked registered voters whether they planned to vote
for a Democrat or a Republican in those elections, 53 percent said a
Democrat and 36 percent said a Republican"


These polls mean nothing as long as they continue to oversample
Democrats.



More likely it shows that a percentage of those who voted Republican
last
time around aren't going to do so in 2006 or 2008. Doesn;t mean they
are Repubs or Dems.

Yeah, they conveniently leave out the statistics about how many
respondents were registered Democrats vs. registered Republicans. But
the AP-Ipsos poll *did* provide that data: 52% registered Dems and 39%
registered Republicans. I'd suspect that this poll is just as badly
skewed.







But for the second day in a row, Rasmussen has Bush at 46%:

HArd to find anyone paying attention to Rasmussen and his autodialers.

Hard for someone intentionally trying to ignore it maybe.

Well, I don't watch Faux or read Fauxnewsmax.


Here is a sampling of local (and some national) news outlets that have
made mention of Rasmussen polling data in the last couple of weeks:

Fort Worth Star Telegram
Kansas City Star
Suffolk News Herald
Palm Beach Post
Richmond Times Dispatch
Washington Times
Stockton Record
St. Petersburg Times
The Free-Lance Star
Lynchburg News and Advance
Huntington Herald Dispatch
LaCrosse Tribune
Eatonville Dispatch
Bloomberg
Beaver Dam Daily Citizen
Harrisonburg Daily News Record
Daily Free Press

And then, of course, there are plenty of Conservative "news" outlets that
have carried it:
Christian Science Monitor
WorldNet Daily
Rushlimbaugh.com
etc...


You may not be reading it in your local rag...but folks around the country
are reading it in their local papers every morning.



Does not matter what the polls say, Bush is POTUS until January 2009. What
kind of candidate is the Democratic party going to run? Another loser like
AGore or Kerry? If the Dem's persist on peeing on their leg, and the
Republican's put up a more moderate candidate, the Dem's are toast for
another 8 years.

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...

Yeah, they conveniently leave out the statistics about how many respondents
were registered Democrats vs. registered Republicans. But the AP-Ipsos poll
*did* provide that data: 52% registered Dems and 39% registered Republicans.
I'd suspect that this poll is just as badly skewed.


You misstate the data.

----
Question #1:

Do your beliefs tend to lean more toward the Democrats or the Republicans?
----

Which does not necessarily equate to party affiliation.

(hint: independents)

"-rick-" wrote in message
. ..

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...

Yeah, they conveniently leave out the statistics about how many
respondents were registered Democrats vs. registered Republicans. But
the AP-Ipsos poll *did* provide that data: 52% registered Dems and 39%
registered Republicans. I'd suspect that this poll is just as badly
skewed.


You misstate the data.

----
Question #1:

Do your beliefs tend to lean more toward the Democrats or the Republicans?
----

Which does not necessarily equate to party affiliation.

(hint: independents)

Independents are those that have not internalized that they are Republican
or Democrat.

"-rick-" wrote in message
. ..

"NOYB" wrote in message
ink.net...

Yeah, they conveniently leave out the statistics about how many
respondents were registered Democrats vs. registered Republicans. But
the AP-Ipsos poll *did* provide that data: 52% registered Dems and 39%
registered Republicans. I'd suspect that this poll is just as badly
skewed.


You misstate the data.

----
Question #1:

Do your beliefs tend to lean more toward the Democrats or the Republicans?
----

Which does not necessarily equate to party affiliation.

" Half the respondents were asked party identification in this location, the
other half were asked at the end of the survey with the

other demographic questions. Results for the respondents who were asked the
question early were 40% Republican, 50%

Democrat. For the respondents asked later in the survey, the results were
39% Republican, 52% Democrat."





(In your opinion, party identification doesn't mean the same thing as party
affiliation? )




(hint: independents)

Yes, independents...which is explained by the fact that 52%+39% doesn't
equal 100%.

On Mon, 14 Nov 2005 02:09:12 +0000, Bill McKee wrote:


Does not matter what the polls say, Bush is POTUS until January 2009.
What kind of candidate is the Democratic party going to run? Another
loser like AGore or Kerry? If the Dem's persist on peeing on their leg,
and the Republican's put up a more moderate candidate, the Dem's are toast
for another 8 years.

There are quite a few "ifs" in there, but the main one is a "more moderate
candidate." A lot of Americans don't have a problem voting Republican or
Democrat. A lot of Americans do have a problem with voting for someone
who panders to the far wings, left or right. This country has always been
run from the center. Some of the most vocal in the Republican Party,
think they have a mandate to move this country way over to the right.
They don't.

"thunder" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 14 Nov 2005 02:09:12 +0000, Bill McKee wrote:


Does not matter what the polls say, Bush is POTUS until January 2009.
What kind of candidate is the Democratic party going to run? Another
loser like AGore or Kerry? If the Dem's persist on peeing on their leg,
and the Republican's put up a more moderate candidate, the Dem's are
toast
for another 8 years.

There are quite a few "ifs" in there, but the main one is a "more moderate
candidate." A lot of Americans don't have a problem voting Republican or
Democrat. A lot of Americans do have a problem with voting for someone
who panders to the far wings, left or right. This country has always been
run from the center. Some of the most vocal in the Republican Party,
think they have a mandate to move this country way over to the right.
They don't.

We'll see. Two successful conservative Supreme Court nominations could
certainly move us to the right.

On Mon, 14 Nov 2005 04:09:28 +0000, NOYB wrote:


We'll see. Two successful conservative Supreme Court nominations could
certainly move us to the right.

Uh, no, that would move the Court to the right. Personally, I'm thinking
it's a wash. Rehnquist was already quite conservative. I think Alito
will be comparably right, but I'm also suspecting Roberts is a lot close
to an O'Connor than you would like. Still, Stevens is 85. If he can't
hang on, and Bush gets to appoint yet another Justice, all bets are off.
I'd also point out, if you think the Court is too liberal, you have no one
to blame but Republicans. They have appointed 7 of the 9 Justices.

"NOYB" wrote ...

" Half the respondents were asked party identification in this location, the
other half were asked at the end of the survey with the

other demographic questions. Results for the respondents who were asked the
question early were 40% Republican, 50%

Democrat. For the respondents asked later in the survey, the results were 39%
Republican, 52% Democrat."

(In your opinion, party identification doesn't mean the same thing as party
affiliation? )

Not exactly. Expectations and performance vary over time. "Do your beliefs
tend to lean more toward the Democrats or the Republicans?" is not equivalent to
"what is your party affiliation" or "are you a registered republican or
democrat?" as you seem to imply. That was my point.

I don't mean to unreasonably split hairs but your premise that this response
invalidates the poll isn't obvious to me. If a statistically significant random
sample yields that result why is it not valid within the probabilities of it's
margin of error? Do you have evidence of non-random sampling?

-rick-

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:
"thunder" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 14 Nov 2005 02:09:12 +0000, Bill McKee wrote:


Does not matter what the polls say, Bush is POTUS until January 2009.
What kind of candidate is the Democratic party going to run? Another
loser like AGore or Kerry? If the Dem's persist on peeing on their
leg,
and the Republican's put up a more moderate candidate, the Dem's are
toast
for another 8 years.
There are quite a few "ifs" in there, but the main one is a "more
moderate
candidate." A lot of Americans don't have a problem voting Republican
or
Democrat. A lot of Americans do have a problem with voting for someone
who panders to the far wings, left or right. This country has always
been
run from the center. Some of the most vocal in the Republican Party,
think they have a mandate to move this country way over to the right.
They don't.

We'll see. Two successful conservative Supreme Court nominations could
certainly move us to the right.


Back to the dark ages.

Were the 1950's really all that dark?