All these polls have the two candidates very close so they
basically show it as a 50/50 race. Also, it's still very early
in the season when you consider that many of the
voters that are still open to changing their minds won't
even start paying attention until September. Plus many
events could swing things either way.

Here's another way (not very scientific and only looking
as popular vote and not the Electoral College votes) of
looking at the situation:

-- In the 2000 election the popular vote was very closely
split between Gore & Bush.

-- It seems to me that many people are much more energized
about getting Bush & Co out. So many more may well vote
to get him out.

-- Yes, Bush's staunch supporters will stay with him. But has
he really done anything that will get MORE of his people
energized or get MORE NEW people out to vote for
him??