Perhaps America's long nightmare with G.W. Bush is coming to an end.

Perhaps not:

CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 5, None/No opinion 3

Investors Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor
Bush 46, Kerry 41, Nader 5, Not sure 7

All these polls have the two candidates very close so they
basically show it as a 50/50 race. Also, it's still very early
in the season when you consider that many of the
voters that are still open to changing their minds won't
even start paying attention until September. Plus many
events could swing things either way.

Here's another way (not very scientific and only looking
as popular vote and not the Electoral College votes) of
looking at the situation:

-- In the 2000 election the popular vote was very closely
split between Gore & Bush.

-- It seems to me that many people are much more energized
about getting Bush & Co out. So many more may well vote
to get him out.

-- Yes, Bush's staunch supporters will stay with him. But has
he really done anything that will get MORE of his people
energized or get MORE NEW people out to vote for
him??

Gary Warner wrote:
All these polls have the two candidates very close so they
basically show it as a 50/50 race. Also, it's still very early
in the season when you consider that many of the
voters that are still open to changing their minds won't
even start paying attention until September. Plus many
events could swing things either way.

Here's another way (not very scientific and only looking
as popular vote and not the Electoral College votes) of
looking at the situation:

-- In the 2000 election the popular vote was very closely
split between Gore & Bush.

-- It seems to me that many people are much more energized
about getting Bush & Co out. So many more may well vote
to get him out.

-- Yes, Bush's staunch supporters will stay with him. But has
he really done anything that will get MORE of his people
energized or get MORE NEW people out to vote for
him??




What's most interesting about these polls is that Bush, arguably a
popular if not accomplished POTUS, is doing so poorly compared to an
Eastern establishment pol who is cerebral and complex.

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
news:2gg05hF2edj5U1@uni-

.....Bush, arguably a
popular if not accomplished POTUS, is doing so poorly compared to an
Eastern establishment pol who is cerebral and complex.

But he's not doing poorly; why do you make such an obviously contrived
statement? Half the country (+/-) think W is doing the right things and
doing them reasonably well. My sense is that a substantial portion of
Kerry's support is there simply because he is *not* Bush. Back during the
primary season, Kerry surged during the last week of the Iowa campaign
because he was *not* Dean, who already had people feeling skittish. He
solidified his position through NH and later because he was *not* Clark, who
couldn't quite figure out big league politics, and because he was *not*
Edwards, who in my view couldn't get traction outside SC because his syrupy
smooth southern tongue reminded too many people (nervously) of the previous
eight years.

Bottom line is that Kerry has wound up where he is because he has shown
people who he isn't. But nobody really knows how much support there is
based on who he is. I personally think there are a lot of people who will
talk Kerry right through October, but go with W in the voting booth.

"John Gaquin" wrote in message ...
"Harry Krause" wrote in message
news:2gg05hF2edj5U1@uni-

.....Bush, arguably a
popular if not accomplished POTUS, is doing so poorly compared to an
Eastern establishment pol who is cerebral and complex.

But he's not doing poorly; why do you make such an obviously contrived
statement? Half the country (+/-) think W is doing the right things and
doing them reasonably well.

And half of the country (+/-) think W is doing the WRONG things, and
doing them horribly.

My sense is that a substantial portion of
Kerry's support is there simply because he is *not* Bush.

Thankfully.

Back during the
primary season, Kerry surged during the last week of the Iowa campaign
because he was *not* Dean, who already had people feeling skittish. He
solidified his position through NH and later because he was *not* Clark, who
couldn't quite figure out big league politics, and because he was *not*
Edwards, who in my view couldn't get traction outside SC because his syrupy
smooth southern tongue reminded too many people (nervously) of the previous
eight years.

Bottom line is that Kerry has wound up where he is because he has shown
people who he isn't. But nobody really knows how much support there is
based on who he is. I personally think there are a lot of people who will
talk Kerry right through October, but go with W in the voting booth.

Now, that's just plain stupid. A lot of people, right about half of
the country, like what Kerry stands for, likes his environmental,
economic, and social issues stances.

Are you as nuts as your name sounds? This latest incident will only further
cement Bush's re-election. It is clearly obvious that the U.S. is further
****ed off, and wants Bush to continue, he is the only leader really who has
shown strong leadership.







"Harry Krause" wrote in message
news:c3dhc2g=.b997f617e02668e7d381415e63328ab6@108 4387094.nulluser.com...
From the Rasmussen nightly automated survey:

Kerry 46% Bush 45%

Election 2004 President

National Ballot
Bush 45%
Kerry 46%
Other 4%
Not Sure 5%


Wednesday May 12, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential
Tracking Poll shows Senator John F. Kerry with 46% of the vote and
President George W. Bush earning 45%.

Senator Kerry has now been ahead or tied for nine of the last ten days.

Data released yesterday showed that most Americans now say it is
unlikely that Iraq will emerge as a peaceful nation enjoying freedom and
democracy. Earlier in the week, Rasmussen Reports polling found that
just 46% of voters believe the United States and its allies are winning
the War on Terror.

As Americans assess the economy, geopolitical events have overwhelmed
Friday's report of job creation. The Rasmussen Consumer Index, a daily
measure of the nation's economic confidence, has fallen for three
straight days. Normally, that Index would have made double digit gains
following a better than expected employment report.

----------------------------------------------

Perhaps America's long nightmare with G.W. Bush is coming to an end.

"basskisser" wrote in message
om...
"John Gaquin" wrote in message
...
"Harry Krause" wrote in message
news:2gg05hF2edj5U1@uni-

.....Bush, arguably a
popular if not accomplished POTUS, is doing so poorly compared to an
Eastern establishment pol who is cerebral and complex.

But he's not doing poorly; why do you make such an obviously contrived
statement? Half the country (+/-) think W is doing the right things and
doing them reasonably well.

And half of the country (+/-) think W is doing the WRONG things, and
doing them horribly.

My sense is that a substantial portion of
Kerry's support is there simply because he is *not* Bush.

Thankfully.

Back during the
primary season, Kerry surged during the last week of the Iowa campaign
because he was *not* Dean, who already had people feeling skittish. He
solidified his position through NH and later because he was *not* Clark,
who
couldn't quite figure out big league politics, and because he was *not*
Edwards, who in my view couldn't get traction outside SC because his
syrupy
smooth southern tongue reminded too many people (nervously) of the
previous
eight years.

Bottom line is that Kerry has wound up where he is because he has shown
people who he isn't. But nobody really knows how much support there is
based on who he is. I personally think there are a lot of people who
will
talk Kerry right through October, but go with W in the voting booth.

Now, that's just plain stupid. A lot of people, right about half of
the country, like what Kerry stands for, likes his environmental,
economic, and social issues stances.

The Democratic party base is comprised of a conglomeration of union
lemmings, sexual deviants, welfare recipients, people with education levels
below a high school diploma, and ex-cons who successfully got their names
expunged from can-not-vote lists. You really think the bulk of the
Democratic party even has a "clue" about Kerry's stances on the environment,
the economy, and other social issues?

"basskisser" wrote in message


And half of the country (+/-) think W is doing the WRONG things, and
doing them horribly.

Yes, of course, but once again, you've completely missed the point. If
polls show he's got approximately half of the available support, he simply
can't be said to be doing poorly.


snip gratuitous insults

..... A lot of people, right about half of
the country, like what Kerry stands for, likes his environmental,
economic, and social issues stances.

No, half the country doesn't "....like what Kerry stands for...", half the
country responds to polls at this time by saying they prefer Kerry to Bush.
But Kerry's support is not deep at all. The general analysis right now is
that if Nader garners more than 3% - 5% of the vote, it will be impossible
for Kerry to win. That is very thin support indeed.

If you look carefully at the progression of support through the early part
of the primary season, you see that Kerry was usually running behind until
the person in the lead tripped somehow. He's like the guy who runs through
the entire ten-mile road race far back in fourth place, but wins when the
first three contenders all get tangled and fall a half-mile from the finish
line.

On Wed, 12 May 2004 19:05:42 +0000, NOYB wrote:


Perhaps America's long nightmare with G.W. Bush is coming to an end.

Perhaps not:

CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 5, None/No opinion 3

Investors Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor Bush 46, Kerry 41,
Nader 5, Not sure 7

Perhaps:

http://www.zogby.com/news/051004.html

Zogby is an Arab-American. He may be a wee bit biased, no?


"thunder" wrote in message
news
On Wed, 12 May 2004 19:05:42 +0000, NOYB wrote:


Perhaps America's long nightmare with G.W. Bush is coming to an end.

Perhaps not:

CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 5, None/No opinion 3

Investors Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor Bush 46, Kerry 41,
Nader 5, Not sure 7

Perhaps:

http://www.zogby.com/news/051004.html