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Memo From RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman To RNC Members On Social Security And The
2006 Elections
Republican National Committee ^ | February 11, 2005

Posted on 02/11/2005 10:35:19 AM PST by RWR8189

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Tracey Schmitt
202-863-8614

TO: RNC Members
FROM: RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman
Social Security: Good Policy and Good Politics
DATE: February 11, 2005

While modernizing Social Security was once considered "touching the third rail"
of American politics, today Social Security reform is not only good policy, it's
also good politics. A majority of Americans agree with the President that reform
is needed and personal retirement accounts (PRAs) are a good idea. Support for
PRAs and reform is particularly high among ticket splitters, swing voters and
some groups that historically vote Democrat.

Americans Overwhelmingly Agree With President Bush: Social Security Reform Is
Needed. In any debate or discussion, the first question that needs to be
answered is whether or not there is a problem. According to a recent CNN/Gallup
poll (Feb 4-6), 72% of Americans think Social Security faces a crisis or has
major problems. A Washington Post/Kaiser Foundation/Harvard University poll (Feb
3-6) found that 73% believed the same and in a recent Harris Poll, 89% of the
public supports reforms to the Social Security system. As the President has
begun talking to the public about this first question of whether or not there is
a problem and reform is needed, we see in poll after poll, the answer is a
resounding "yes".

Personal Retirement Accounts (PRAs) Are Popular With The GOP Voters, Swing
Voters And Young Voters. The next question is whether there is public support
for the President's plan. According to the Tarrance/Public Opinion Strategies
poll (Jan 11-13), Americans favor voluntary personal retirement accounts by 57%
to 39%. Among Republicans and ticket splitters the numbers are even larger. 85%
of Republicans support the President's PRA proposal (60% strongly support),
including 77% of Republicans 55 and over. Furthermore, 68% of Republicans
believe PRAs would strengthen Social Security, including 64% of Republicans over
55. According to a Voter Consumer Research poll (Jan 23-25), widespread support
is seen among traditional swing voters and non-Republicans.




Favor PRAs


Oppose PRAs


Diff (+/-)

18-24 voters


77%


21%


56%

26-45 voters


73%


26%


47%

Hispanic


70%


30%


40%

Married, Working White women


67%


29%


38%

Frequent Church goers


65%


32%


33%

Trade Union Members


63%


32%


31%

Working White women


64%


33%


31%

Catholics


62%


35%


27%

African-American


62%


36%


26%

Protestants


62%


36%


26%

Non-Married Working White Women


61%


39%


22%

Independent Female


58%


40%


18%

White Union Members


55%


39%


16%

Turning Out Our Base Will Be Critical To Success In 2006. These findings are
particularly significant as we enter into the 2006 election cycle. While 59% of
eligible adults turned out in 2004, turnout in 2006 is likely to be about half
that number. With lower overall turnout, off-year elections are more impacted by
base motivation than Presidential year elections. Republicans win in off year
elections when our base is motivated. In 1994, we won control of the House for
the first time in 40 years in part because conservatives increased their
participation in the electorate from 30% to 37% from 1992. Similarly, in 2002,
Republicans increased their proportion of the electorate from 36% in 2000 to
39%, while Democrat turnout declined from 39% to 35%. Both 1994 and 2002 were
successful, in significant part, because our base was motivated and turned out
in higher numbers.


--
John H

"All decisions are the result of binary thinking."