"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...

"NOYB" wrote in message
nk.net...

"DSK" wrote in message
. ..
What a laugh. China could trash the US economy with the stroke of a
pen.


NOYB wrote:
And we could do the same to them.

How?

Their economy is totally dependent on US purchases.


You better hope your president fears Wal Mart's wrath more than the god he
pretends to worship.

Walmart has the Chinese over a barrell. Just think what would happen if
Wal-Mart decided tomorrow that it wouldn't buy products made in China any
longer. The Chinese economy would tank.

On Mon, 14 Mar 2005 21:00:35 GMT, "Doug Kanter"
wrote:


"John H" wrote in message
.. .
On Mon, 14 Mar 2005 18:32:19 GMT, "Doug Kanter"

wrote:

"NOYB" wrote in message
thlink.net...

Closer to perfecting? If you leave Boston, driving to Texas, and your
car
dies and ends your trip just north of Hartford CT, yes, you are closer
than when you left Boston, but not enough to user the word "closer"
with
any sense of celebration.

That's not an apt analogy. A better one would be:
You make a trip to Texas 8 different times. Two of those times, your
car
dies somewhere in the midwest...and once, it once wouldn't start in the
driveway. The other 5 trips went just as planned. The missile defense
tests have hit their mark 5 out of 8 times. I'd say we're "closer to
perfecting" the system. I would estimate that before the end of Bush's
second term, we'll have at least some semblance of a working system in
place.

Just one problem: The system could have two purposes.

1) Prevent an attack which we had absolutely nothing to do with provoking.
This is a good thing.

2) Prevent a RESPONSE to a situation created by a group consisting of one
idiot and a handful of madmen, who think that a good way to free up some
oil
supply would be to cripple or eliminate the world's *other* legitimate
customer, China.

#2 is highly likely, considering the fact that your master and his crew
have
already shown that they like to create mayhem where there was none before.




What's happening now is nothing new. Didn't you follow the space
program
before we successfully landed on the moon? Would you argue that with
each
test...some successful, and some not...that we weren't any "closer to
perfecting" our ability to reach the moon?

Moon missions could've have failed endlessly for 20 years and it would not
have been the same, since the systems being developed were not needed to
back up the threats of a madman. There was nothing to lose but the lives
of
volunteers, and a lot of time spent debating the budget of the thing in
Congress.


Would you rather the response be successful?

The point was that NOYB thinks the system, which is seriously hobbled by
technical problems, is close to be "good enough". In fact, the system has to
be perfect if it will be placed in operation while Bush is in office because
as you know, your president *will* say or do something stupid and bust open
yet another hornet's nest, just like he did in Iraq.


It makes no difference. Canada has said we can't fire anti-missile missiles
overhead without it's express permission. Surely they've told China the same
thing. Right?

--
John H

"All decisions are the result of binary thinking."

On Mon, 14 Mar 2005 21:31:17 GMT, "NOYB" wrote:


"Jim Carter" wrote in message
...

"NOYB" wrote in message
nk.net...

"DSK" wrote in message
. ..
What a laugh. China could trash the US economy with the stroke of a
pen.


NOYB wrote:
And we could do the same to them.

How?

Their economy is totally dependent on US purchases.

The PRC is NOT totally dependent on the USA. Where did you ever get that
impression? China is a HUGE trading partner for the whole of Europe,
Japan, Australia, Canada, Mexico and some of the Countries of South
American
and South Africa. You need to get a Global Education and not be so
narrow
minded.

Nearly 18% of Chinese exports go to the US. Since we're discussing the
effect that Chinese aggression against Taiwan would have, then it's safe to
say that China would lose the following trade partners in the event of a war
with Taiwan: US, Japan, and Taiwan. Together, those three countries make
up 3 of China's top 5 trade partners...and almost 44% of China's total
exports. It's also likely that China would lose the following as trade
partners: Hong Kong, S. Korea, and Germany. That'd account for 70% of
China's trade.

Keep in mind, that this says nothing about the effect that our corporations
would have in pulling their factories out China.

France would probably make up what Germany quit buying, so you can't subtract
them from the equation.
--
John H

"All decisions are the result of binary thinking."

NOYB wrote:

Let the Middle East
situation continue to come into shape. Once there are stable pro-US

governments in the oil-producing countries,

Hehe!!!!!

NOYB wrote:
Walmart has the Chinese over a barrell. Just think what would happen if
Wal-Mart decided tomorrow that it wouldn't buy products made in China any
longer. The Chinese economy would tank.


Which do you think would happen faster

1- Wal-Mart causes the collapse of the Chinese economy, relying on some
rather puny numbers (what percent of China's GDP does Wal-Mart
represent?) and an economic domino effect, rather indirect

2- the collapse of the US economy if China announced that they were
selling all their U.S. debt obligations... amounting to more than 7
times our total annual GDP... a rather overwhelming number and an
immediate market reaction

Y'know, I really really *don't* want to find out by trying it... if
you're smart, you wouldn't either...

DSK

"John H" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 14 Mar 2005 21:00:35 GMT, "Doug Kanter"

wrote:


"John H" wrote in message
. ..
On Mon, 14 Mar 2005 18:32:19 GMT, "Doug Kanter"

wrote:

"NOYB" wrote in message
rthlink.net...

Closer to perfecting? If you leave Boston, driving to Texas, and your
car
dies and ends your trip just north of Hartford CT, yes, you are
closer
than when you left Boston, but not enough to user the word "closer"
with
any sense of celebration.

That's not an apt analogy. A better one would be:
You make a trip to Texas 8 different times. Two of those times, your
car
dies somewhere in the midwest...and once, it once wouldn't start in
the
driveway. The other 5 trips went just as planned. The missile defense
tests have hit their mark 5 out of 8 times. I'd say we're "closer to
perfecting" the system. I would estimate that before the end of
Bush's
second term, we'll have at least some semblance of a working system in
place.

Just one problem: The system could have two purposes.

1) Prevent an attack which we had absolutely nothing to do with
provoking.
This is a good thing.

2) Prevent a RESPONSE to a situation created by a group consisting of
one
idiot and a handful of madmen, who think that a good way to free up some
oil
supply would be to cripple or eliminate the world's *other* legitimate
customer, China.

#2 is highly likely, considering the fact that your master and his crew
have
already shown that they like to create mayhem where there was none
before.




What's happening now is nothing new. Didn't you follow the space
program
before we successfully landed on the moon? Would you argue that with
each
test...some successful, and some not...that we weren't any "closer to
perfecting" our ability to reach the moon?

Moon missions could've have failed endlessly for 20 years and it would
not
have been the same, since the systems being developed were not needed to
back up the threats of a madman. There was nothing to lose but the lives
of
volunteers, and a lot of time spent debating the budget of the thing in
Congress.


Would you rather the response be successful?

The point was that NOYB thinks the system, which is seriously hobbled by
technical problems, is close to be "good enough". In fact, the system has
to
be perfect if it will be placed in operation while Bush is in office
because
as you know, your president *will* say or do something stupid and bust
open
yet another hornet's nest, just like he did in Iraq.


It makes no difference. Canada has said we can't fire anti-missile
missiles
overhead without it's express permission. Surely they've told China the
same
thing. Right?

Canadians are drunk all the time. They'd never notice.

"DSK" wrote in message
.. .
NOYB wrote:
Walmart has the Chinese over a barrell. Just think what would happen if
Wal-Mart decided tomorrow that it wouldn't buy products made in China any
longer. The Chinese economy would tank.


Which do you think would happen faster

1- Wal-Mart causes the collapse of the Chinese economy, relying on some
rather puny numbers (what percent of China's GDP does Wal-Mart represent?)
and an economic domino effect, rather indirect

Walmart's purchases account for roughly 3% of Chinese exports...which is
more than either Russia or Great Britain imports from China.



2- the collapse of the US economy if China announced that they were
selling all their U.S. debt obligations... amounting to more than 7 times
our total annual GDP

From where are you getting these figures? China's US Treasury bond holdings
in its foreign exchange reserves is roughly $180 billion. Last I checked,
toaal annual US GDP was $11.73 trillion.



... a rather overwhelming number and an immediate market reaction




Y'know, I really really *don't* want to find out by trying it... if you're
smart, you wouldn't either...


Of course I don't want to find out by trying it. But it's important to
debate the hypotheticals. And my best guess is that we'd have a recession
that would compare to the Carter years...and China would have a depression
that would dwarf even our Great Depression.

"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...

"John H" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 14 Mar 2005 21:00:35 GMT, "Doug Kanter"

wrote:


"John H" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 14 Mar 2005 18:32:19 GMT, "Doug Kanter"

wrote:

"NOYB" wrote in message
arthlink.net...

Closer to perfecting? If you leave Boston, driving to Texas, and
your
car
dies and ends your trip just north of Hartford CT, yes, you are
closer
than when you left Boston, but not enough to user the word "closer"
with
any sense of celebration.

That's not an apt analogy. A better one would be:
You make a trip to Texas 8 different times. Two of those times, your
car
dies somewhere in the midwest...and once, it once wouldn't start in
the
driveway. The other 5 trips went just as planned. The missile defense
tests have hit their mark 5 out of 8 times. I'd say we're "closer to
perfecting" the system. I would estimate that before the end of
Bush's
second term, we'll have at least some semblance of a working system
in
place.

Just one problem: The system could have two purposes.

1) Prevent an attack which we had absolutely nothing to do with
provoking.
This is a good thing.

2) Prevent a RESPONSE to a situation created by a group consisting of
one
idiot and a handful of madmen, who think that a good way to free up
some
oil
supply would be to cripple or eliminate the world's *other* legitimate
customer, China.

#2 is highly likely, considering the fact that your master and his crew
have
already shown that they like to create mayhem where there was none
before.




What's happening now is nothing new. Didn't you follow the space
program
before we successfully landed on the moon? Would you argue that with
each
test...some successful, and some not...that we weren't any "closer to
perfecting" our ability to reach the moon?

Moon missions could've have failed endlessly for 20 years and it would
not
have been the same, since the systems being developed were not needed
to
back up the threats of a madman. There was nothing to lose but the
lives
of
volunteers, and a lot of time spent debating the budget of the thing in
Congress.


Would you rather the response be successful?

The point was that NOYB thinks the system, which is seriously hobbled by
technical problems, is close to be "good enough". In fact, the system has
to
be perfect if it will be placed in operation while Bush is in office
because
as you know, your president *will* say or do something stupid and bust
open
yet another hornet's nest, just like he did in Iraq.


It makes no difference. Canada has said we can't fire anti-missile
missiles
overhead without it's express permission. Surely they've told China the
same
thing. Right?

Canadians are drunk all the time. They'd never notice.

Perhaps we can just make ICBM jammers and deflectors rather than missiles
that will blow them out of the air? A launch coming over the polar ice caps
would be forced down before it hit our northern border. There's not much
worth saving north of Chicago anyhow.

"NOYB" wrote in message
nk.net...
Nearly 18% of Chinese exports go to the US. Since we're discussing the
effect that Chinese aggression against Taiwan would have, then it's safe
to
say that China would lose the following trade partners in the event of a
war
with Taiwan: US, Japan, and Taiwan. Together, those three countries make
up 3 of China's top 5 trade partners...and almost 44% of China's total
exports. It's also likely that China would lose the following as trade
partners: Hong Kong, S. Korea, and Germany. That'd account for 70% of
China's trade.
Keep in mind, that this says nothing about the effect that our
corporations
would have in pulling their factories out China.

I do think your calculations are very incorrect.

If the PRC would be taking Taiwan back into the fold, they don't lose Taiwan
as a trading partner, then gain it. Japan would not be lost as a trading
partner for China as Japan has too much to lose with their trade with China
to worry about the little bit with Taiwan. Also, the Japanese people are
opposed to any war and their government would topple if there was any hint
of an impending war. The exact same can be said of Germany as well as the
rest of the European Economic Community.

Where have you been when you are mentioning Hong Kong in your calculations?
Hong Kong "is" a part of the PRC and has been since July 1, 1997.

The American corporations pulling out of China would have almost no effect
as they would be immediately replaced by corporations from The European
Economic Community, Brazil and from Japan.

As I said before. Your opinions are too narrow minded and your grasp of
Global Politics is lacking.

Jim Carter

Y'know, I really really *don't* want to find out by trying it... if you're
smart, you wouldn't either...



NOYB wrote:
Of course I don't want to find out by trying it.

Good. Let's both hope that the loudest voices in the Bush/Cheney cabinet
are at least as smart as you are...

... But it's important to
debate the hypotheticals.

If you don't have your head stuck way way deep in the sand, sure.

... And my best guess is that we'd have a recession
that would compare to the Carter years...and China would have a depression
that would dwarf even our Great Depression.


I think you've got it backwards. If our currency crashed, we'd be in the
same shape as the Weimar Republic (look it up)... maybe worse.

BTW take a look at some of the percentages here
http://en.ce.cn/Markets/Currencies/2..._2411132.shtml

This is the drop in the dollar caused merely by the slowing down of the
rate at which the Chinese are buying up our debt, not even selling off
any. BTW this article mentions the increase in Chinese cash holdings as
over $500 billion, what percent of our GDP does that represent hmm? A
bit more than 3% nyet?


BTW here's an interesting little bid'ness article
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata...i.html#anchor3

Get the facts, NOBBY, get the facts. Attempts at logic based on wishful
thinking will not get you very far in the real world, although it may
make you a hero among the Bush/Cheney cheerleaders.

DSK