Is this the same Harry who has been posting every favorable poll he has ever
seen?

Harry does diddley about statistics, but not much more than that.



11"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:
"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"NOYB" wrote in message
...

"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral
College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected.
Polling
in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected
president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/.


Correction:
Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be
elected President.

See: http://www.electionprojection.com

Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to
arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance,
today's Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by
4
points and 1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does
the
webmaster of electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based solely
on
Zogby's poll.

www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does
www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major
polls, Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College.

In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses
*averaged* data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at
electoral-vote.com.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html

It looks like the polling groups are 'assigning' undetermined voters to
each canidate according to who they think they are goinig to break
for....I heard one poll was as much as 9-1 in favor of
kerry...................it is no wonder there is such a wide swing in
the
polls..............

Yes, Gallup took the undecideds and chose to divvy them up 9 to 1 in
Kerry's
favor.

Pew split them up evenly. That's why Gallup shows a tie, and Pew shows
Bush
up 3 points.

I guess it's safe to say that even in the worst case scenario, the polls
are
tied...but in the more likely scenario, Bush is up 3 points. If
undecideds
break to Bush, then Bush could be up as high as 4 or 5 points.


Neither of you know diddley about statistics. The fact that you believe
one factor is skewing the final "prediction" reveals that. And the fact
that you're still hung up on national polls when virtually all the polls
are tied within the margin of error shows how silly you are.

The winner of the election tommorow will be the candidate whose ground
game delivers more voters in a handful of states like Pennsylvania,
Ohio, Michigan and Florida. I think Kerry will carry Pennsylvania, Ohio
and Michigan. I think Kerry will get more votes than Bush in Florida,
but that Bush will carry Florida because the fix is in.


--
Today George W. Bush made a very compelling and thoughtful argument
for why he should not be reelected. In his own words, he told the
American people that "...a political candidate who jumps to conclusions
without knowing the facts is not a person you want as your
Commander-in-Chief."