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On Thu, 30 Apr 2020 22:27:47 -0400, wrote:

On Thu, 30 Apr 2020 20:15:15 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 4/30/2020 7:28 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 30 Apr 2020 11:45:10 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

Japanese island suffering second wave of coronavirus after lifting
lockdown too early
[The Telegraph]
Julian Ryall
,The Telegraph•April 29, 2020

A northern region of Japan is experiencing a second wave of coronavirus
infections - and deaths - that experts say could have been avoided if
the state of emergency had not been lifted too early.

The island of Hokkaido had been held up as a model of how to control the
spread of the virus, but it has now become a case study for the impact
the disease can have if a lockdown is relaxed too soon.

And experts say they hope that other cities and nations that are toying
with the idea of lifting restrictions on travel, work and schools can
learn from Hokkaido’s experience.

Naomichi Suzuki, the prefectural governor, on February 29 declared a
state of emergency in response to a sharp increase in coronavirus cases,
all of which could be traced back to the Sapporo Snow Festival at the
beginning of the month. The annual event attracted more than 2 million
people to the city, with local health authorities treating a Chinese
tourist from Wuhan who had contracted the illness before arriving in
Hokkaido.

Despite the state of emergency, 118 people were being treated for the
virus by March 12, making Hokkaido the worst-hit of all Japan’s 47
prefectures.

In tandem with the state of emergency - under which schools were closed,
large-scale gatherings were cancelled and people were officially
“encouraged” to stay at home - the local government introduced
aggressive measures to trace and isolate anyone who had been in contact
with victims. The approach appeared to have been effective and, just a
week later, the number of new cases had fallen to one or two a day.

Assuming that they had weathered the storm - and keen to get the local
economy operating again - local authorities lifted the state of
emergency on March 19, with schools and businesses reopening.

With hindsight, experts agree, it was too early and, just 26 days later
and after 135 new infections were reported in the space of a week, the
lockdown was reimposed on Hokkaido’s 5.3 million residents.

With the exception of infections brought to us from New York and on
Cruise ships in two counties, we never had the first wave. Hospitals
were never stressed. We have 6000 unused ventilators, ICU beds are 38%
empty, far lower than the hospital needs to pay for them. Our per
capita infection rate in my county is lower than yours. The things
they are reopening are not any more dangerous than the things that
never closed. As the guy in the shoe store said tonight on the news
"why is it more dangerous to be in my shoe store with 3 customers than
it is to buy shoes in Walmart with 500 customers"?

I notice you don't like to talk about Sweden. They had more cases than
Norway or Denmark but they are about over this mess and they will be
done with it, not waiting for the wave when people come out of their
basement.
They also don't have that mass unemployment, business failures and
suffering that brings you such joy.

Greg, when it comes to tiki bars, modified generators, networking a
bunch of obsolete computers or building bridges in a swamp, I will
always defer to your expertise. :-)

But when it comes to managing a world-wide pandemic that is still
expanding globally as well as in the USA, I think I'll listen to the
recommendations of the experts.

The data is interesting to read for sure, but the jury is still
out on this one.

Data says this is a city disease, mostly affecting people of color but
nobody is allowed to say that.
You could almost say it was democrat disease tho if you just laid the
top 10 states for covid over a list of the states that voted for
Hillary ;-)

===

It turns out that there is some evidence that infection rates are
higher in places that have air pollution issues. Those are usually
urban population centers of course.

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