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#11
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We are moving ......
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#12
posted to rec.boats
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We are moving ......
On Thu, 9 Apr 2020 08:52:19 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote: On 4/9/2020 8:26 AM, John wrote: On Thu, 9 Apr 2020 01:41:39 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 4/8/2020 11:15 PM, wrote: On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 14:00:47 -0400, Justan Ohlphart wrote: On 4/7/2020 12:09 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: ...... to Greenland. After all this, they still only have 11 confirmed cases. Take a look at Grand Isle LA. they have ZERO cases there. Move to the Lee County beaches, They are virtually Covid free too. (by zip code) So much for the Spring Break scare. I've been following the latest "model" estimates of number of deaths due to covid-19. Initially the Task Force docs were talking up to 2.3 million if nobody followed their "mitigation" protocols and 100,000 to 240,000 if everybody religiously followed them. Then, it was dropped to about 84,000. Then, it was dropped again to 60,000. I think we've been duped. That is a number comparable to that for the regular seasonal flu and a number of other categories. In addition, some number of deaths attributed to covid-19 were actually caused by other reasons such as heart attack, etc. that likely would have happened with or without being tested positive for covid-19. Perhaps the mitigation efforts have paid off more than expected. And, perhaps we can start putting some folks back to work. When you say 'duped', do you think it was intentional? Dr. Birk has said they used data from Italy and Spain as input to their models. If you look at the death rate per million data for the US (45), Spain (326), and Italy (292), you can see how the input from those countries could affect the models. Trump should show some of those statistics during his briefings. They make us look relatively good in the medical care arena. I am not complaining. The 100k to 240k estimate was based on everyone following the mitigation protocols to a "T" though. The same model also way overestimated the number of ventilators and ICU beds that would be required, especially in New York. Now it appears they have excess. It's probably a result of more testing and refinement of the "model" the docs are using. We are also a far younger population than Italy and Spain. Our demographic curve is pretty flat. They have a huge lump out around 55-80. |
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#14
posted to rec.boats
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We are moving ......
On Thu, 09 Apr 2020 15:16:10 -0400, John wrote:
On Thu, 09 Apr 2020 13:32:48 -0400, wrote: On Thu, 9 Apr 2020 08:52:19 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 4/9/2020 8:26 AM, John wrote: On Thu, 9 Apr 2020 01:41:39 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 4/8/2020 11:15 PM, wrote: On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 14:00:47 -0400, Justan Ohlphart wrote: On 4/7/2020 12:09 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: ...... to Greenland. After all this, they still only have 11 confirmed cases. Take a look at Grand Isle LA. they have ZERO cases there. Move to the Lee County beaches, They are virtually Covid free too. (by zip code) So much for the Spring Break scare. I've been following the latest "model" estimates of number of deaths due to covid-19. Initially the Task Force docs were talking up to 2.3 million if nobody followed their "mitigation" protocols and 100,000 to 240,000 if everybody religiously followed them. Then, it was dropped to about 84,000. Then, it was dropped again to 60,000. I think we've been duped. That is a number comparable to that for the regular seasonal flu and a number of other categories. In addition, some number of deaths attributed to covid-19 were actually caused by other reasons such as heart attack, etc. that likely would have happened with or without being tested positive for covid-19. Perhaps the mitigation efforts have paid off more than expected. And, perhaps we can start putting some folks back to work. When you say 'duped', do you think it was intentional? Dr. Birk has said they used data from Italy and Spain as input to their models. If you look at the death rate per million data for the US (45), Spain (326), and Italy (292), you can see how the input from those countries could affect the models. Trump should show some of those statistics during his briefings. They make us look relatively good in the medical care arena. I am not complaining. The 100k to 240k estimate was based on everyone following the mitigation protocols to a "T" though. The same model also way overestimated the number of ventilators and ICU beds that would be required, especially in New York. Now it appears they have excess. It's probably a result of more testing and refinement of the "model" the docs are using. We are also a far younger population than Italy and Spain. Our demographic curve is pretty flat. They have a huge lump out around 55-80. It's easy to throw that in the model. When you look at who dies from this, it is imperative that you do. |
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