On Thu, 9 Apr 2020 08:52:19 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 4/9/2020 8:26 AM, John wrote:
On Thu, 9 Apr 2020 01:41:39 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 4/8/2020 11:15 PM, wrote:


On Wed, 8 Apr 2020 14:00:47 -0400, Justan Ohlphart
wrote:

On 4/7/2020 12:09 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:


...... to Greenland.

After all this, they still only have 11 confirmed cases.



Take a look at Grand Isle LA. they have ZERO cases there.

Move to the Lee County beaches, They are virtually Covid free too. (by
zip code) So much for the Spring Break scare.



I've been following the latest "model" estimates of number
of deaths due to covid-19.

Initially the Task Force docs were talking up to 2.3 million
if nobody followed their "mitigation" protocols and
100,000 to 240,000 if everybody religiously followed them.

Then, it was dropped to about 84,000.

Then, it was dropped again to 60,000.

I think we've been duped.

That is a number comparable to that for the regular
seasonal flu and a number of other categories.

In addition, some number of deaths attributed to
covid-19 were actually caused by other reasons
such as heart attack, etc. that likely would have
happened with or without being tested positive
for covid-19.



Perhaps the mitigation efforts have paid off more than expected. And, perhaps we
can start putting some folks back to work.

When you say 'duped', do you think it was intentional? Dr. Birk has said they
used data from Italy and Spain as input to their models. If you look at the
death rate per million data for the US (45), Spain (326), and Italy (292), you
can see how the input from those countries could affect the models.

Trump should show some of those statistics during his briefings. They make us
look relatively good in the medical care arena.

I am not complaining. The 100k to 240k estimate was based on everyone
following the mitigation protocols to a "T" though. The same model
also way overestimated the number of ventilators and ICU beds that would
be required, especially in New York. Now it appears they have excess.

It's probably a result of more testing and refinement of the "model"
the docs are using.

We are also a far younger population than Italy and Spain. Our
demographic curve is pretty flat. They have a huge lump out around
55-80.