On 1/12/2018 8:12 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 17:32:35 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 4:30 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 12:32:02 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 10:59 AM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 10:00:11 -0500, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 1/12/18 9:46 AM, amdx wrote:
On 1/8/2018 6:29 PM, Alex wrote:
wrote:
On Sat, 6 Jan 2018 22:35:27 -0500, Alex wrote:

amdx wrote:
and hey, how about the stock market?

I should do well under the new tax law, looks like I'll qualify for
the pass thru, knocking off 20% of my business income from being
taxable.
and a Standard deduction of $24k, what's not to like.
Â* I'll will lose two child deductions, but I would have lost one
anyone, she's getting married.

Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â* Mikek
My 401K hit seven figures shortly after President Trump was elected and
has grown even more.Â* I'll have to see how it affects my paycheck.Â* The
new rates won't be active until next month.Â* If this continues I might
be able to retire at 55!


===

I've been moving into more conservative, and more diversified assets
in anticipation of a market pull back.Â* I'd suggest keeping your job a
bit longer if you enjoy what you're doing.Â* Inflation becomes a real
risk once you stop working.

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com

I'm realistically looking to retire by 60.Â* I've got a few IRA's and
some non-retirement investments, too.Â* I don't want to have to watch
the market all the time to feel comfortable.

Investing new money is challenging right now with the market so high.
I'm looking more and more at real estate.

Many people do well with real estate, but if you buy rentals you are
buying a job. 20 some years ago I had 5 rentals, I did well with them,
but when I moved out of state I sold them all, and at 62 I have zero
interest being on call to do repairs or maintenance.
Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â*Â* Mikek


When the market "corrects" and tumbles, what are you going to do...go
back to selling shrimp?

Temporary glitches in the market are dealt with by using
diversification.
So far it has always recovered. If there was an actual crash that we
didn't recover from, selling shrimp would not be an option either
because the dollar would go down with it along with the whole world
economy.
That kind of thing will usually result in a massive war and these days
it will be the kind of war that ends all of that global warming
bull****. We will scrub those few billion of the population we need to
and be in a nuclear winter for a decade or two.



My, my. You certainly have a cheery outlook of the future.


I am just responding to the kind of crash Harry was alluding to.
It is not impossible tho. How long can we keep borrowing more than we
make (as a society)?
The fact remains that we have been borrowing our way to prosperity
since the Reagan administration with no real plan to pay it back. One
of these days that debt will overwhelm our ability to even pay the
interest. Then what? That is the long range problem.
In the short term, it will not take much to crash the stock market and
depress the economy.
A coup in the executive branch would do it as we saw in 74, a crash
the middle class never recovered from. That is also what led to the
"borrow and spend prosperity".



I get a kick out of the economic experts giving their predictions. The
gold/precious metals people say we are about to experience a major stock
market crash that will make 2008's real estate bubble burst look like a
minor hic-up. Then there's the pro-market guys (heard one today) who
are predicting a long term (3 to 5 year) run up of stock values.


I could argue either side of that. You do have a ****load of Gen Exers
and Millennials chucking money into the market with their 401ks and
that tends to support the bull but I still have a hard time ignoring
the debt problem and the lack of real growth.
We already borrow all of the money to run the government beyond
entitlements and interest on the debt. What happens when revenue does
not even cover that? The Fed already monetized $4.5T of our debt by
buying unsold bonds. When will the world figure out our debt is a bad
bet and stop renewing their bonds? Things will happen fast then.
I know US "paper" is supposed to be the safest thing in the world but
so was real estate ... until it wasn't.
I was the one on these yacking boards who said real estate was
cruising for a fall but I was 10-15 years early. I did not believe the
elasticity of the financial markets to absorb that much bad debt. When
it finally popped it was much worse than I predicted tho because it
brought down the banking industry with it, not just the real estate
market. I did not really understand the effect of the derivatives.
This situation is worse than that.
If the federal debt bubble pops the 30s will look like a bump in the
road. It could take down "money" as we know it.



Debt as it relates to global economics is a transparent, phony concept
period. There's no underlying standard or base to it. Debt is only
real to common people tied to the banking systems via mortgages, credit
cards or loans and the penalties for defaulting are governed only within
the rules of the banking systems.

Global (national) debt doesn't mean a thing. To be concerned with it
assumes you think a "note" is going to be called and it is going to be
repaid someday by someone. It isn't. It's factored into global trade
and international finance. To think it is like a bank loan that has a
maturity date tied to it isn't real. A maturity date doesn't exist.
If there aren't enough revenues to pay the phony interest, the
government just prints more money.

On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 07:02:02 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

Debt as it relates to global economics is a transparent, phony concept
period. There's no underlying standard or base to it. Debt is only
real to common people tied to the banking systems via mortgages, credit
cards or loans and the penalties for defaulting are governed only within
the rules of the banking systems.

Global (national) debt doesn't mean a thing. To be concerned with it
assumes you think a "note" is going to be called and it is going to be
repaid someday by someone. It isn't. It's factored into global trade
and international finance. To think it is like a bank loan that has a
maturity date tied to it isn't real. A maturity date doesn't exist.
If there aren't enough revenues to pay the phony interest, the
government just prints more money.

===

That's an interesting theory but there's plenty of historical evidence
to indicate that there are consequences to excessive sovereign debt. I
would hold up Brazil, Argentina, Greece and Italy as prime examples.
Their debts eventually became so overwhelming that no one would lend
to them on any terms, and their ability to conduct foreign trade was
severely impacted. As they printed more and more money, their rate of
inflation reached astronomical levels and currency became virtually
worthless. It's not a good place to be. Eventually foreign banks and
governments step into the situation and take charge on their terms. Do
we really want the Chinese or Saudis dictating our internal policies?

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com

On 1/13/2018 12:36 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 07:02:02 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

Debt as it relates to global economics is a transparent, phony concept
period. There's no underlying standard or base to it. Debt is only
real to common people tied to the banking systems via mortgages, credit
cards or loans and the penalties for defaulting are governed only within
the rules of the banking systems.

Global (national) debt doesn't mean a thing. To be concerned with it
assumes you think a "note" is going to be called and it is going to be
repaid someday by someone. It isn't. It's factored into global trade
and international finance. To think it is like a bank loan that has a
maturity date tied to it isn't real. A maturity date doesn't exist.
If there aren't enough revenues to pay the phony interest, the
government just prints more money.

===

That's an interesting theory but there's plenty of historical evidence
to indicate that there are consequences to excessive sovereign debt. I
would hold up Brazil, Argentina, Greece and Italy as prime examples.
Their debts eventually became so overwhelming that no one would lend
to them on any terms, and their ability to conduct foreign trade was
severely impacted. As they printed more and more money, their rate of
inflation reached astronomical levels and currency became virtually
worthless. It's not a good place to be. Eventually foreign banks and
governments step into the situation and take charge on their terms. Do
we really want the Chinese or Saudis dictating our internal policies?


The difference is that countries like Brazil, Argentina and Greece
don't have anything close to the international export or consumer
(imports) participation that other countries with more stable economies
have. Italy could but it changes it's government and constitution every
two or three years.

On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 07:02:02 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 8:12 PM, wrote:


I could argue either side of that. You do have a ****load of Gen Exers
and Millennials chucking money into the market with their 401ks and
that tends to support the bull but I still have a hard time ignoring
the debt problem and the lack of real growth.
We already borrow all of the money to run the government beyond
entitlements and interest on the debt. What happens when revenue does
not even cover that? The Fed already monetized $4.5T of our debt by
buying unsold bonds. When will the world figure out our debt is a bad
bet and stop renewing their bonds? Things will happen fast then.
I know US "paper" is supposed to be the safest thing in the world but
so was real estate ... until it wasn't.
I was the one on these yacking boards who said real estate was
cruising for a fall but I was 10-15 years early. I did not believe the
elasticity of the financial markets to absorb that much bad debt. When
it finally popped it was much worse than I predicted tho because it
brought down the banking industry with it, not just the real estate
market. I did not really understand the effect of the derivatives.
This situation is worse than that.
If the federal debt bubble pops the 30s will look like a bump in the
road. It could take down "money" as we know it.



Debt as it relates to global economics is a transparent, phony concept
period. There's no underlying standard or base to it. Debt is only
real to common people tied to the banking systems via mortgages, credit
cards or loans and the penalties for defaulting are governed only within
the rules of the banking systems.

Global (national) debt doesn't mean a thing. To be concerned with it
assumes you think a "note" is going to be called and it is going to be
repaid someday by someone. It isn't. It's factored into global trade
and international finance. To think it is like a bank loan that has a
maturity date tied to it isn't real. A maturity date doesn't exist.
If there aren't enough revenues to pay the phony interest, the
government just prints more money.



The problem is the interest we pay on a lot of that debt is real
(private holders, foreign governments and now, SS/MC recipients) and
there is a limit to how much money the government can just "print"
before runaway inflation gobbles us all up. To start with the interest
on the short term paper the government has to sell over to cover that
interest will skyrocket, making the problem worse. This was the basis
of a lot of Perot's "charts and graphs" that insured we would never
have another viable 3d party candidate. Nobody wants to tell the
emperor he has no clothes.
You are really starting to sound like those people denying that there
was ever a problem with housing. "I mean, who doesn't pay their
mortgage" or so it was explained.

On 1/13/2018 1:11 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 07:02:02 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 8:12 PM, wrote:


I could argue either side of that. You do have a ****load of Gen Exers
and Millennials chucking money into the market with their 401ks and
that tends to support the bull but I still have a hard time ignoring
the debt problem and the lack of real growth.
We already borrow all of the money to run the government beyond
entitlements and interest on the debt. What happens when revenue does
not even cover that? The Fed already monetized $4.5T of our debt by
buying unsold bonds. When will the world figure out our debt is a bad
bet and stop renewing their bonds? Things will happen fast then.
I know US "paper" is supposed to be the safest thing in the world but
so was real estate ... until it wasn't.
I was the one on these yacking boards who said real estate was
cruising for a fall but I was 10-15 years early. I did not believe the
elasticity of the financial markets to absorb that much bad debt. When
it finally popped it was much worse than I predicted tho because it
brought down the banking industry with it, not just the real estate
market. I did not really understand the effect of the derivatives.
This situation is worse than that.
If the federal debt bubble pops the 30s will look like a bump in the
road. It could take down "money" as we know it.



Debt as it relates to global economics is a transparent, phony concept
period. There's no underlying standard or base to it. Debt is only
real to common people tied to the banking systems via mortgages, credit
cards or loans and the penalties for defaulting are governed only within
the rules of the banking systems.

Global (national) debt doesn't mean a thing. To be concerned with it
assumes you think a "note" is going to be called and it is going to be
repaid someday by someone. It isn't. It's factored into global trade
and international finance. To think it is like a bank loan that has a
maturity date tied to it isn't real. A maturity date doesn't exist.
If there aren't enough revenues to pay the phony interest, the
government just prints more money.



The problem is the interest we pay on a lot of that debt is real
(private holders, foreign governments and now, SS/MC recipients) and
there is a limit to how much money the government can just "print"
before runaway inflation gobbles us all up. To start with the interest
on the short term paper the government has to sell over to cover that
interest will skyrocket, making the problem worse. This was the basis
of a lot of Perot's "charts and graphs" that insured we would never
have another viable 3d party candidate. Nobody wants to tell the
emperor he has no clothes.

You are really starting to sound like those people denying that there
was ever a problem with housing. "I mean, who doesn't pay their
mortgage" or so it was explained.


Not me on the housing thing. I don't profess that I understood it all
but I felt there was a major crash coming as early as 2002. We had
purchased two houses in Florida and the annual appreciation at that time
was about 23% in the Jupiter area. A guy I met down there was big time
into flipping houses and tried several times to get me to join in with
him buying and selling. No way, Jose'.

We did ok on the two houses we had when we sold them but the warning
signs were becoming clear. We got out in the nick of time.

But, going back to the national "debt". I remember when Reagan came
along and starting reversing the economically timid policies of Jimmy
Carter (who still increased the national debt by 43% over his four year
term). Reagan took a lot of heat for "spending our way to prosperity"
and significantly increased the national debt. Well, that was almost 40
years ago. We're still here and the sky hasn't fallen. I remember
talking to a money guy during the Reagan expansion and I recited the
standard "national debt" concern that many had at the time. He just
shook his head and said, "It only matters if it ends and you have to pay
the piper. It's not going to end ... there's no bill to pay ... it's
all artificial".

In fact, the last POTUS who actually *reduced* the national debt was
Calvin Coolidge in FY's 1924-1929. Shortly thereafter the stock market
crashed and we were in a deep depression.

Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 1/12/2018 8:12 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 17:32:35 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 4:30 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 12:32:02 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 10:59 AM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 10:00:11 -0500, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 1/12/18 9:46 AM, amdx wrote:
On 1/8/2018 6:29 PM, Alex wrote:
wrote:
On Sat, 6 Jan 2018 22:35:27 -0500, Alex wrote:

amdx wrote:
and hey, how about the stock market?

I should do well under the new tax law, looks like I'll qualify for
the pass thru, knocking off 20% of my business income from being
taxable.
and a Standard deduction of $24k, what's not to like.
Â* I'll will lose two child deductions, but I would have lost one
anyone, she's getting married.

Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â* Mikek
My 401K hit seven figures shortly after President Trump was elected and
has grown even more.Â* I'll have to see how it affects my paycheck.Â* The
new rates won't be active until next month.Â* If this continues I might
be able to retire at 55!


===

I've been moving into more conservative, and more diversified assets
in anticipation of a market pull back.Â* I'd suggest keeping your job a
bit longer if you enjoy what you're doing.Â* Inflation becomes a real
risk once you stop working.

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com

I'm realistically looking to retire by 60.Â* I've got a few IRA's and
some non-retirement investments, too.Â* I don't want to have to watch
the market all the time to feel comfortable.

Investing new money is challenging right now with the market so high.
I'm looking more and more at real estate.

Many people do well with real estate, but if you buy rentals you are
buying a job. 20 some years ago I had 5 rentals, I did well with them,
but when I moved out of state I sold them all, and at 62 I have zero
interest being on call to do repairs or maintenance.
Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â*Â* Mikek


When the market "corrects" and tumbles, what are you going to do...go
back to selling shrimp?

Temporary glitches in the market are dealt with by using
diversification.
So far it has always recovered. If there was an actual crash that we
didn't recover from, selling shrimp would not be an option either
because the dollar would go down with it along with the whole world
economy.
That kind of thing will usually result in a massive war and these days
it will be the kind of war that ends all of that global warming
bull****. We will scrub those few billion of the population we need to
and be in a nuclear winter for a decade or two.



My, my. You certainly have a cheery outlook of the future.


I am just responding to the kind of crash Harry was alluding to.
It is not impossible tho. How long can we keep borrowing more than we
make (as a society)?
The fact remains that we have been borrowing our way to prosperity
since the Reagan administration with no real plan to pay it back. One
of these days that debt will overwhelm our ability to even pay the
interest. Then what? That is the long range problem.
In the short term, it will not take much to crash the stock market and
depress the economy.
A coup in the executive branch would do it as we saw in 74, a crash
the middle class never recovered from. That is also what led to the
"borrow and spend prosperity".



I get a kick out of the economic experts giving their predictions. The
gold/precious metals people say we are about to experience a major stock
market crash that will make 2008's real estate bubble burst look like a
minor hic-up. Then there's the pro-market guys (heard one today) who
are predicting a long term (3 to 5 year) run up of stock values.


I could argue either side of that. You do have a ****load of Gen Exers
and Millennials chucking money into the market with their 401ks and
that tends to support the bull but I still have a hard time ignoring
the debt problem and the lack of real growth.
We already borrow all of the money to run the government beyond
entitlements and interest on the debt. What happens when revenue does
not even cover that? The Fed already monetized $4.5T of our debt by
buying unsold bonds. When will the world figure out our debt is a bad
bet and stop renewing their bonds? Things will happen fast then.
I know US "paper" is supposed to be the safest thing in the world but
so was real estate ... until it wasn't.
I was the one on these yacking boards who said real estate was
cruising for a fall but I was 10-15 years early. I did not believe the
elasticity of the financial markets to absorb that much bad debt. When
it finally popped it was much worse than I predicted tho because it
brought down the banking industry with it, not just the real estate
market. I did not really understand the effect of the derivatives.
This situation is worse than that.
If the federal debt bubble pops the 30s will look like a bump in the
road. It could take down "money" as we know it.



Debt as it relates to global economics is a transparent, phony concept
period. There's no underlying standard or base to it. Debt is only
real to common people tied to the banking systems via mortgages, credit
cards or loans and the penalties for defaulting are governed only within
the rules of the banking systems.

Global (national) debt doesn't mean a thing. To be concerned with it
assumes you think a "note" is going to be called and it is going to be
repaid someday by someone. It isn't. It's factored into global trade
and international finance. To think it is like a bank loan that has a
maturity date tied to it isn't real. A maturity date doesn't exist.
If there aren't enough revenues to pay the phony interest, the
government just prints more money.






Debt may not cause a downfall of the country, but it may cause
hyperinflation, and really bad times for anybody below the 1-3%. Look at
Carter presidency. 18% savings account interest, but hard to get a loan
and that is going to cost 23%,etc.

On 1/13/2018 3:18 PM, Bill wrote:
Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 1/12/2018 8:12 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 17:32:35 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 4:30 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 12:32:02 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 10:59 AM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 10:00:11 -0500, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 1/12/18 9:46 AM, amdx wrote:
On 1/8/2018 6:29 PM, Alex wrote:
wrote:
On Sat, 6 Jan 2018 22:35:27 -0500, Alex wrote:

amdx wrote:
and hey, how about the stock market?

I should do well under the new tax law, looks like I'll qualify for
the pass thru, knocking off 20% of my business income from being
taxable.
and a Standard deduction of $24k, what's not to like.
Â* I'll will lose two child deductions, but I would have lost one
anyone, she's getting married.

Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â* Mikek
My 401K hit seven figures shortly after President Trump was elected and
has grown even more.Â* I'll have to see how it affects my paycheck.Â* The
new rates won't be active until next month.Â* If this continues I might
be able to retire at 55!


===

I've been moving into more conservative, and more diversified assets
in anticipation of a market pull back.Â* I'd suggest keeping your job a
bit longer if you enjoy what you're doing.Â* Inflation becomes a real
risk once you stop working.

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com

I'm realistically looking to retire by 60.Â* I've got a few IRA's and
some non-retirement investments, too.Â* I don't want to have to watch
the market all the time to feel comfortable.

Investing new money is challenging right now with the market so high.
I'm looking more and more at real estate.

Many people do well with real estate, but if you buy rentals you are
buying a job. 20 some years ago I had 5 rentals, I did well with them,
but when I moved out of state I sold them all, and at 62 I have zero
interest being on call to do repairs or maintenance.
Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â*Â* Mikek


When the market "corrects" and tumbles, what are you going to do...go
back to selling shrimp?

Temporary glitches in the market are dealt with by using
diversification.
So far it has always recovered. If there was an actual crash that we
didn't recover from, selling shrimp would not be an option either
because the dollar would go down with it along with the whole world
economy.
That kind of thing will usually result in a massive war and these days
it will be the kind of war that ends all of that global warming
bull****. We will scrub those few billion of the population we need to
and be in a nuclear winter for a decade or two.



My, my. You certainly have a cheery outlook of the future.


I am just responding to the kind of crash Harry was alluding to.
It is not impossible tho. How long can we keep borrowing more than we
make (as a society)?
The fact remains that we have been borrowing our way to prosperity
since the Reagan administration with no real plan to pay it back. One
of these days that debt will overwhelm our ability to even pay the
interest. Then what? That is the long range problem.
In the short term, it will not take much to crash the stock market and
depress the economy.
A coup in the executive branch would do it as we saw in 74, a crash
the middle class never recovered from. That is also what led to the
"borrow and spend prosperity".



I get a kick out of the economic experts giving their predictions. The
gold/precious metals people say we are about to experience a major stock
market crash that will make 2008's real estate bubble burst look like a
minor hic-up. Then there's the pro-market guys (heard one today) who
are predicting a long term (3 to 5 year) run up of stock values.


I could argue either side of that. You do have a ****load of Gen Exers
and Millennials chucking money into the market with their 401ks and
that tends to support the bull but I still have a hard time ignoring
the debt problem and the lack of real growth.
We already borrow all of the money to run the government beyond
entitlements and interest on the debt. What happens when revenue does
not even cover that? The Fed already monetized $4.5T of our debt by
buying unsold bonds. When will the world figure out our debt is a bad
bet and stop renewing their bonds? Things will happen fast then.
I know US "paper" is supposed to be the safest thing in the world but
so was real estate ... until it wasn't.
I was the one on these yacking boards who said real estate was
cruising for a fall but I was 10-15 years early. I did not believe the
elasticity of the financial markets to absorb that much bad debt. When
it finally popped it was much worse than I predicted tho because it
brought down the banking industry with it, not just the real estate
market. I did not really understand the effect of the derivatives.
This situation is worse than that.
If the federal debt bubble pops the 30s will look like a bump in the
road. It could take down "money" as we know it.



Debt as it relates to global economics is a transparent, phony concept
period. There's no underlying standard or base to it. Debt is only
real to common people tied to the banking systems via mortgages, credit
cards or loans and the penalties for defaulting are governed only within
the rules of the banking systems.

Global (national) debt doesn't mean a thing. To be concerned with it
assumes you think a "note" is going to be called and it is going to be
repaid someday by someone. It isn't. It's factored into global trade
and international finance. To think it is like a bank loan that has a
maturity date tied to it isn't real. A maturity date doesn't exist.
If there aren't enough revenues to pay the phony interest, the
government just prints more money.






Debt may not cause a downfall of the country, but it may cause
hyperinflation, and really bad times for anybody below the 1-3%. Look at
Carter presidency. 18% savings account interest, but hard to get a loan
and that is going to cost 23%,etc.

I was looking at 30 years mortgages then, 16.75%.
Ended up with a 3 year balloon at 13.75%.
Mikek

On 1/13/2018 4:37 PM, amdx wrote:
On 1/13/2018 3:18 PM, Bill wrote:
Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 1/12/2018 8:12 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 17:32:35 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 4:30 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 12:32:02 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 1/12/2018 10:59 AM, wrote:
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 10:00:11 -0500, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 1/12/18 9:46 AM, amdx wrote:
On 1/8/2018 6:29 PM, Alex wrote:
wrote:
On Sat, 6 Jan 2018 22:35:27 -0500, Alex
wrote:

amdx wrote:
and hey, how about the stock market?

I should do well under the new tax law, looks like I'll
qualify for
the pass thru, knocking off 20% of my business income from
being
taxable.
and a Standard deduction of $24k, what's not to like.
Â*Â* I'll will lose two child deductions, but I would have
lost one
anyone, she's getting married.

Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â*Â* Mikek
My 401K hit seven figures shortly after President Trump was
elected and
has grown even more.Â* I'll have to see how it affects my
paycheck.Â* The
new rates won't be active until next month.Â* If this
continues I might
be able to retire at 55!


===

I've been moving into more conservative, and more
diversified assets
in anticipation of a market pull back.Â* I'd suggest keeping
your job a
bit longer if you enjoy what you're doing.Â* Inflation
becomes a real
risk once you stop working.

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I'm realistically looking to retire by 60.Â* I've got a few
IRA's and
some non-retirement investments, too.Â* I don't want to have
to watch
the market all the time to feel comfortable.

Investing new money is challenging right now with the market
so high.
I'm looking more and more at real estate.

Many people do well with real estate, but if you buy rentals
you are
buying a job. 20 some years ago I had 5 rentals, I did well
with them,
but when I moved out of state I sold them all, and at 62 I
have zero
interest being on call to do repairs or maintenance.
Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â*Â*Â* Mikek


When the market "corrects" and tumbles, what are you going to
do...go
back to selling shrimp?

Temporary glitches in the market are dealt with by using
diversification.
So far it has always recovered. If there was an actual crash
that we
didn't recover from, selling shrimp would not be an option either
because the dollar would go down with it along with the whole world
economy.
That kind of thing will usually result in a massive war and
these days
it will be the kind of war that ends all of that global warming
bull****. We will scrub those few billion of the population we
need to
and be in a nuclear winter for a decade or two.



My, my.Â* You certainly have a cheery outlook of the future.


I am just responding to the kind of crash Harry was alluding to.
It is not impossible tho. How long can we keep borrowing more than we
make (as a society)?
The fact remains that we have been borrowing our way to prosperity
since the Reagan administration with no real plan to pay it back. One
of these days that debt will overwhelm our ability to even pay the
interest. Then what? That is the long range problem.
In the short term, it will not take much to crash the stock market
and
depress the economy.
A coup in the executive branch would do it as we saw in 74, a crash
the middle class never recovered from. That is also what led to the
"borrow and spend prosperity".



I get a kick out of the economic experts giving their predictions.
The
gold/precious metals people say we are about to experience a major
stock
market crash that will make 2008's real estate bubble burst look
like a
minor hic-up.Â* Then there's the pro-market guys (heard one today) who
are predicting a long term (3 to 5 year) run up of stock values.


I could argue either side of that. You do have a ****load of Gen Exers
and Millennials chucking money into the market with their 401ks and
that tends to support the bull but I still have a hard time ignoring
the debt problem and the lack of real growth.
We already borrow all of the money to run the government beyond
entitlements and interest on the debt. What happens when revenue does
not even cover that? The Fed already monetized $4.5T of our debt by
buyingÂ* unsold bonds. When will the world figure out our debt is a bad
bet and stop renewing their bonds? Things will happen fast then.
I know US "paper" is supposed to be the safest thing in the world but
so was real estate ... until it wasn't.
I was the one on these yacking boards who said real estate was
cruising for a fall but I was 10-15 years early. I did not believe the
elasticity of the financial markets to absorb that much bad debt. When
it finally popped it was much worse than I predicted tho because it
brought down the banking industry with it, not just the real estate
market. I did not really understand the effect of the derivatives.
This situation is worse than that.
If the federal debt bubble pops the 30s will look like a bump in the
road. It could take down "money" as we know it.



Debt as it relates to global economics is a transparent, phony concept
period.Â* There's no underlying standard or base to it.Â* Debt is only
real to common people tied to the banking systems via mortgages, credit
cards or loans and the penalties for defaulting are governed only within
the rules of the banking systems.

Global (national) debt doesn't mean a thing.Â* To be concerned with it
assumes you think a "note" is going to be called and it is going to be
repaid someday by someone.Â* It isn't.Â* It's factored into global trade
and international finance. To think it is like a bank loan that has a
maturity date tied to it isn't real.Â* A maturity date doesn't exist.
If there aren't enough revenues to pay the phony interest, the
government just prints more money.






Debt may not cause a downfall of the country, but it may cause
hyperinflation, and really bad times for anybody below the 1-3%.
Look at
Carter presidency.Â*Â* 18% savings account interest, but hard to get a loan
and that is going to cost 23%,etc.

Â*I was looking at 30 years mortgages then, 16.75%.
Ended up with a 3 year balloon at 13.75%.
Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â* Mikek


My first mortgage was in 1982. Economy was still reeling from the
Carter years. Banks were offering 12.5% for a conventional, 30 year
mortgage. I decided to contact the VA and ended up with a VA backed
conventional mortgage at 11%. Seemed like a great deal at the time.
I remember they had "points" then also.

On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 16:54:46 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

My first mortgage was in 1982. Economy was still reeling from the
Carter years. Banks were offering 12.5% for a conventional, 30 year
mortgage. I decided to contact the VA and ended up with a VA backed
conventional mortgage at 11%. Seemed like a great deal at the time.
I remember they had "points" then also.

The points is what kept me away from a VA mortgage. I ended up with a
better rate bottom line from a bank.

On 1/13/2018 5:26 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 13 Jan 2018 16:54:46 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

My first mortgage was in 1982. Economy was still reeling from the
Carter years. Banks were offering 12.5% for a conventional, 30 year
mortgage. I decided to contact the VA and ended up with a VA backed
conventional mortgage at 11%. Seemed like a great deal at the time.
I remember they had "points" then also.

The points is what kept me away from a VA mortgage. I ended up with a
better rate bottom line from a bank.



I think all mortgages, VA or not, had points back then. They just
factored them into the loan.