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#12
posted to rec.boats
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Lazy day
On Fri, 22 Sep 2017 16:17:34 -0000 (UTC), Bill
wrote: Mr. Luddite wrote: On 9/21/2017 7:28 PM, wrote: On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:35:26 -0400, wrote: On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:09:52 -0400, wrote: I started losing faith in these plots with Irma. They had it 100% going up the east coast 3 days out and in 48 hours it was right over us. Our local guy was better than NOAA on the last day, predicting the eye wall hitting within minutes of being right. === The problem with forecasting the Irma track was getting the timing right for the turn northward. Even a small error created a substantial lateral shift because of the geometry. That is always the issue. If these things just went on a straight line, it would be easy to predict where they go ;-) Jose has been about the screwiest one I have seen for a while and Maria may be running through the same confused air. The water up north is cool enough so this will not be a major storm, even if they take a hit but it doesn't take a major storm to affect a lot of people. Sandy was just a strong tropical storm at landfall. A day of "inch an hour" rain would flood places full of people who never thought they could flood. That was what Agnes did to us in Clinton and that was only about 6-8" of rain in a day. It just could not drain away fast enough in upland communities. Just woke up and we are still be hit with strong wind gusts and rain squalls from Jose. Haven't checked the weather map yet be it obviously hasn't moved much in three days. As for hurricane tracking in general, it's still a guessing game but there's also no question that the weather people have become much better at forecasting a general track, given all the influences. I was watching the Weather Channel the other day and they were talking about the two prime computer models they use ... GFS and Euro. The Euro has had a much better record of being accurate. One of them (forget which) underwent a major update a year or so ago and it was noticed that the update made the software more inaccurate than the original. They went back to using the original. Squaw Valley (wonder when they will have change their name) shut down skiing 2 months ago. Snowed a few inches yesterday. I hear Mammoth got snow today too. |
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#13
posted to rec.boats
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Lazy day
wrote:
On Fri, 22 Sep 2017 16:17:34 -0000 (UTC), Bill wrote: Mr. Luddite wrote: On 9/21/2017 7:28 PM, wrote: On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:35:26 -0400, wrote: On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:09:52 -0400, wrote: I started losing faith in these plots with Irma. They had it 100% going up the east coast 3 days out and in 48 hours it was right over us. Our local guy was better than NOAA on the last day, predicting the eye wall hitting within minutes of being right. === The problem with forecasting the Irma track was getting the timing right for the turn northward. Even a small error created a substantial lateral shift because of the geometry. That is always the issue. If these things just went on a straight line, it would be easy to predict where they go ;-) Jose has been about the screwiest one I have seen for a while and Maria may be running through the same confused air. The water up north is cool enough so this will not be a major storm, even if they take a hit but it doesn't take a major storm to affect a lot of people. Sandy was just a strong tropical storm at landfall. A day of "inch an hour" rain would flood places full of people who never thought they could flood. That was what Agnes did to us in Clinton and that was only about 6-8" of rain in a day. It just could not drain away fast enough in upland communities. Just woke up and we are still be hit with strong wind gusts and rain squalls from Jose. Haven't checked the weather map yet be it obviously hasn't moved much in three days. As for hurricane tracking in general, it's still a guessing game but there's also no question that the weather people have become much better at forecasting a general track, given all the influences. I was watching the Weather Channel the other day and they were talking about the two prime computer models they use ... GFS and Euro. The Euro has had a much better record of being accurate. One of them (forget which) underwent a major update a year or so ago and it was noticed that the update made the software more inaccurate than the original. They went back to using the original. Squaw Valley (wonder when they will have change their name) shut down skiing 2 months ago. Snowed a few inches yesterday. I hear Mammoth got snow today too. My older daughter and family ski Mammoth. Season passes. Was snowing couple days ago. |
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#14
posted to rec.boats
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Lazy day
On Fri, 22 Sep 2017 21:33:11 -0000 (UTC), Bill
wrote: wrote: On Fri, 22 Sep 2017 16:17:34 -0000 (UTC), Bill wrote: Mr. Luddite wrote: On 9/21/2017 7:28 PM, wrote: On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:35:26 -0400, wrote: On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:09:52 -0400, wrote: I started losing faith in these plots with Irma. They had it 100% going up the east coast 3 days out and in 48 hours it was right over us. Our local guy was better than NOAA on the last day, predicting the eye wall hitting within minutes of being right. === The problem with forecasting the Irma track was getting the timing right for the turn northward. Even a small error created a substantial lateral shift because of the geometry. That is always the issue. If these things just went on a straight line, it would be easy to predict where they go ;-) Jose has been about the screwiest one I have seen for a while and Maria may be running through the same confused air. The water up north is cool enough so this will not be a major storm, even if they take a hit but it doesn't take a major storm to affect a lot of people. Sandy was just a strong tropical storm at landfall. A day of "inch an hour" rain would flood places full of people who never thought they could flood. That was what Agnes did to us in Clinton and that was only about 6-8" of rain in a day. It just could not drain away fast enough in upland communities. Just woke up and we are still be hit with strong wind gusts and rain squalls from Jose. Haven't checked the weather map yet be it obviously hasn't moved much in three days. As for hurricane tracking in general, it's still a guessing game but there's also no question that the weather people have become much better at forecasting a general track, given all the influences. I was watching the Weather Channel the other day and they were talking about the two prime computer models they use ... GFS and Euro. The Euro has had a much better record of being accurate. One of them (forget which) underwent a major update a year or so ago and it was noticed that the update made the software more inaccurate than the original. They went back to using the original. Squaw Valley (wonder when they will have change their name) shut down skiing 2 months ago. Snowed a few inches yesterday. I hear Mammoth got snow today too. My older daughter and family ski Mammoth. Season passes. Was snowing couple days ago. We really liked Mammoth in the summer. We went up to Squaw Valley but it was a mistake. We should have just spent a few more days at Mammoth. We did get up to Donnor Pass on a logging road one day tho. That was exciting in a "lost and the GPS in the phone was no help" sort of way. We ran into a guy on a 4 wheeler who got us on the right road. |
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#15
posted to rec.boats
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Lazy day
wrote:
On Fri, 22 Sep 2017 21:33:11 -0000 (UTC), Bill wrote: wrote: On Fri, 22 Sep 2017 16:17:34 -0000 (UTC), Bill wrote: Mr. Luddite wrote: On 9/21/2017 7:28 PM, wrote: On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:35:26 -0400, wrote: On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:09:52 -0400, wrote: I started losing faith in these plots with Irma. They had it 100% going up the east coast 3 days out and in 48 hours it was right over us. Our local guy was better than NOAA on the last day, predicting the eye wall hitting within minutes of being right. === The problem with forecasting the Irma track was getting the timing right for the turn northward. Even a small error created a substantial lateral shift because of the geometry. That is always the issue. If these things just went on a straight line, it would be easy to predict where they go ;-) Jose has been about the screwiest one I have seen for a while and Maria may be running through the same confused air. The water up north is cool enough so this will not be a major storm, even if they take a hit but it doesn't take a major storm to affect a lot of people. Sandy was just a strong tropical storm at landfall. A day of "inch an hour" rain would flood places full of people who never thought they could flood. That was what Agnes did to us in Clinton and that was only about 6-8" of rain in a day. It just could not drain away fast enough in upland communities. Just woke up and we are still be hit with strong wind gusts and rain squalls from Jose. Haven't checked the weather map yet be it obviously hasn't moved much in three days. As for hurricane tracking in general, it's still a guessing game but there's also no question that the weather people have become much better at forecasting a general track, given all the influences. I was watching the Weather Channel the other day and they were talking about the two prime computer models they use ... GFS and Euro. The Euro has had a much better record of being accurate. One of them (forget which) underwent a major update a year or so ago and it was noticed that the update made the software more inaccurate than the original. They went back to using the original. Squaw Valley (wonder when they will have change their name) shut down skiing 2 months ago. Snowed a few inches yesterday. I hear Mammoth got snow today too. My older daughter and family ski Mammoth. Season passes. Was snowing couple days ago. We really liked Mammoth in the summer. We went up to Squaw Valley but it was a mistake. We should have just spent a few more days at Mammoth. We did get up to Donnor Pass on a logging road one day tho. That was exciting in a "lost and the GPS in the phone was no help" sort of way. We ran into a guy on a 4 wheeler who got us on the right road. Off 89 on the west shore of Tahoe, you can go back up one of the roads to where the Rubicon Jeep run comes out. Over the sierras on no trail. As a youth, my dad and his buddy had a good claim on the Rubicon River out of Michigan Bluff. We like June Lake loop a little better than the Mammoth Lakes region, but I do fly fish the Owens River out of Bishop. All is beautiful, and in the fall when the aspens are changing color, is dynamic. |
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#16
posted to rec.boats
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Lazy day
Bill wrote:
wrote: On Fri, 22 Sep 2017 21:33:11 -0000 (UTC), Bill wrote: wrote: On Fri, 22 Sep 2017 16:17:34 -0000 (UTC), Bill wrote: Mr. Luddite wrote: On 9/21/2017 7:28 PM, wrote: On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:35:26 -0400, wrote: On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:09:52 -0400, wrote: I started losing faith in these plots with Irma. They had it 100% going up the east coast 3 days out and in 48 hours it was right over us. Our local guy was better than NOAA on the last day, predicting the eye wall hitting within minutes of being right. === The problem with forecasting the Irma track was getting the timing right for the turn northward. Even a small error created a substantial lateral shift because of the geometry. That is always the issue. If these things just went on a straight line, it would be easy to predict where they go ;-) Jose has been about the screwiest one I have seen for a while and Maria may be running through the same confused air. The water up north is cool enough so this will not be a major storm, even if they take a hit but it doesn't take a major storm to affect a lot of people. Sandy was just a strong tropical storm at landfall. A day of "inch an hour" rain would flood places full of people who never thought they could flood. That was what Agnes did to us in Clinton and that was only about 6-8" of rain in a day. It just could not drain away fast enough in upland communities. Just woke up and we are still be hit with strong wind gusts and rain squalls from Jose. Haven't checked the weather map yet be it obviously hasn't moved much in three days. As for hurricane tracking in general, it's still a guessing game but there's also no question that the weather people have become much better at forecasting a general track, given all the influences. I was watching the Weather Channel the other day and they were talking about the two prime computer models they use ... GFS and Euro. The Euro has had a much better record of being accurate. One of them (forget which) underwent a major update a year or so ago and it was noticed that the update made the software more inaccurate than the original. They went back to using the original. Squaw Valley (wonder when they will have change their name) shut down skiing 2 months ago. Snowed a few inches yesterday. I hear Mammoth got snow today too. My older daughter and family ski Mammoth. Season passes. Was snowing couple days ago. We really liked Mammoth in the summer. We went up to Squaw Valley but it was a mistake. We should have just spent a few more days at Mammoth. We did get up to Donnor Pass on a logging road one day tho. That was exciting in a "lost and the GPS in the phone was no help" sort of way. We ran into a guy on a 4 wheeler who got us on the right road. Off 89 on the west shore of Tahoe, you can go back up one of the roads to where the Rubicon Jeep run comes out. Over the sierras on no trail. As a youth, my dad and his buddy had a good claim on the Rubicon River out of Michigan Bluff. We like June Lake loop a little better than the Mammoth Lakes region, but I do fly fish the Owens River out of Bishop. All is beautiful, and in the fall when the aspens are changing color, is dynamic. Gold not good claim. |
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#17
posted to rec.boats
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Lazy day
On Sat, 23 Sep 2017 15:30:25 -0000 (UTC), Bill
wrote: wrote: On Fri, 22 Sep 2017 21:33:11 -0000 (UTC), Bill wrote: wrote: On Fri, 22 Sep 2017 16:17:34 -0000 (UTC), Bill wrote: Mr. Luddite wrote: On 9/21/2017 7:28 PM, wrote: On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:35:26 -0400, wrote: On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:09:52 -0400, wrote: I started losing faith in these plots with Irma. They had it 100% going up the east coast 3 days out and in 48 hours it was right over us. Our local guy was better than NOAA on the last day, predicting the eye wall hitting within minutes of being right. === The problem with forecasting the Irma track was getting the timing right for the turn northward. Even a small error created a substantial lateral shift because of the geometry. That is always the issue. If these things just went on a straight line, it would be easy to predict where they go ;-) Jose has been about the screwiest one I have seen for a while and Maria may be running through the same confused air. The water up north is cool enough so this will not be a major storm, even if they take a hit but it doesn't take a major storm to affect a lot of people. Sandy was just a strong tropical storm at landfall. A day of "inch an hour" rain would flood places full of people who never thought they could flood. That was what Agnes did to us in Clinton and that was only about 6-8" of rain in a day. It just could not drain away fast enough in upland communities. Just woke up and we are still be hit with strong wind gusts and rain squalls from Jose. Haven't checked the weather map yet be it obviously hasn't moved much in three days. As for hurricane tracking in general, it's still a guessing game but there's also no question that the weather people have become much better at forecasting a general track, given all the influences. I was watching the Weather Channel the other day and they were talking about the two prime computer models they use ... GFS and Euro. The Euro has had a much better record of being accurate. One of them (forget which) underwent a major update a year or so ago and it was noticed that the update made the software more inaccurate than the original. They went back to using the original. Squaw Valley (wonder when they will have change their name) shut down skiing 2 months ago. Snowed a few inches yesterday. I hear Mammoth got snow today too. My older daughter and family ski Mammoth. Season passes. Was snowing couple days ago. We really liked Mammoth in the summer. We went up to Squaw Valley but it was a mistake. We should have just spent a few more days at Mammoth. We did get up to Donnor Pass on a logging road one day tho. That was exciting in a "lost and the GPS in the phone was no help" sort of way. We ran into a guy on a 4 wheeler who got us on the right road. Off 89 on the west shore of Tahoe, you can go back up one of the roads to where the Rubicon Jeep run comes out. Over the sierras on no trail. As a youth, my dad and his buddy had a good claim on the Rubicon River out of Michigan Bluff. We like June Lake loop a little better than the Mammoth Lakes region, but I do fly fish the Owens River out of Bishop. All is beautiful, and in the fall when the aspens are changing color, is dynamic. I am not sure exactly where we were. We just started driving around on some logging roads north of Squaw. |
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