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Mr. Luddite

On 1/4/2016 7:12 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 4 Jan 2016 05:17:56 -0500, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

The balloon that was about to burst wasn't obvious until about 2006

That is not true of everyone. You can take a look at "the big short"
but more personally, I know that the guys who ran Centex (builders)
knew this was hokey in 2004 and they were not building spec houses
(AKA "inventory") even then. The customer needed to have a contract
with at least $50k down before they started building, in spite of the
fact that houses were sold in a lottery at the time. They also avoided
"investors" as much as possible. (only one home per customer was the
goal)

The owners (Hannigan and Ellers) sold the business right before it
crashed. I sold my stock when that happened at a pretty nice profit.

That's true. When we bought the two properties we had in Florida, one
in 2001 and the other a few months later from a neighbor who was
investing heavily into real estate in order to "flip" them. His wife
was a real estate agent. FlaJim will remember him and the two properties
we had.

At the time property values in the area of Jupiter we were in were going
up by about 21 percent annually. My neighbor tried talking me into
joining him into making flip investments. I wasn't an economic genius
(still aren't) but my conservative nature and hunch was that the boom
wasn't going to last. I was right. We sold the second property we
bought in 2003 for about what we paid for it following one of the
hurricanes that caused some damage ... mostly to the large pool
enclosure. We made out well on the other house when we sold it though.
Bought it for $465K in 2001 and sold it for $1M in 2004, just before
the market started cooling off in advance of the crash. It was the last
house in that gated community that sold for quite a while. Last I knew
it had been sold again a few years later for under $500k.

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