On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 10:39:24 -0400, Keyser Söze
wrote:

On 10/29/15 10:34 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 10:15:48 -0400, Keyser Söze
wrote:

On 10/29/15 10:11 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 09:44:46 -0400,
wrote:

It appears that the world is awash in more petro distillates than it
can consume or store. Ships in transit have become the storage of
last resort and that can't last forever. This will continue to
translate into lower prices at the pump but there is only so much
elasticity in demand as prices come down. Eventually the oil
producers will have to decommission some of their wells or pump less
agressively.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/26/oil-diesel-glut-idUSL8N12N36520151026

There is an interesting effect where diesel prices come down faster
than gasoline since diesel fuel gets produced as a byproduct of
gasoline distillation, but the demand for diesel increases more slowly
as prices come down. That creates a temporary production imbalance
and lower prices for diesel.

I have $3.599 (reg u/l) by labor day in the pool.


Don't forget the "annual" gouge price increases for Memorial Day and
July 4th Weekends.

I think this may be a bit more strategic. The saudis are selling oil
at lower than their production cost and I doubt it is out of the
kindness in their heart.


How would we possibly know what the Saudi's "production costs" are,
since they own their own oil and use cheap imported labor for the real
work in their country? Plus, they have strong political reasons at the
moment to keep the prices low. Oil pricing is just another corporate sham.

The financial rags have been talking about this for a while. Oil
production costs are not a state secret.
I agree it is a manipulated market but the biggest manipulators are
the Saudis and the gulf states. Everyone else is just hanging on and
hoping it will stop.
Since the Russians are one of the countries hurting the most and they
support Assad, it does make some immediate sense but the oil producers
also like the idea of stifling alternate energy programs, Keystone and
fracking.
This is also the classic behavior of a drug pusher. The first one is
always cheap.
When gas is $2 a gallon, people are more likely to buy an SUV and not
a Leaf. Once they own it, they are hooked.

On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 11:22:26 -0400,
wrote:

On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 10:39:24 -0400, Keyser Söze
wrote:

Oil pricing is just another corporate sham.

===

Harry, self proclaimed expert on all things corporate, just emitted
another loud and smelly brain fart. Very predictable.

I guess he doesn't understand that public corporations have open books
and you can go and look at what their cash flow is.
I am baffled by a lot of it but there are plenty of people who do this
for a living and I trust their opinions.

wrote:
On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 10:39:24 -0400, Keyser Söze
wrote:

On 10/29/15 10:34 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 10:15:48 -0400, Keyser Söze
wrote:

On 10/29/15 10:11 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 09:44:46 -0400,
wrote:

It appears that the world is awash in more petro distillates than it
can consume or store. Ships in transit have become the storage of
last resort and that can't last forever. This will continue to
translate into lower prices at the pump but there is only so much
elasticity in demand as prices come down. Eventually the oil
producers will have to decommission some of their wells or pump less
agressively.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/26/oil-diesel-glut-idUSL8N12N36520151026

There is an interesting effect where diesel prices come down faster
than gasoline since diesel fuel gets produced as a byproduct of
gasoline distillation, but the demand for diesel increases more slowly
as prices come down. That creates a temporary production imbalance
and lower prices for diesel.

I have $3.599 (reg u/l) by labor day in the pool.


Don't forget the "annual" gouge price increases for Memorial Day and
July 4th Weekends.

I think this may be a bit more strategic. The saudis are selling oil
at lower than their production cost and I doubt it is out of the
kindness in their heart.


How would we possibly know what the Saudi's "production costs" are,
since they own their own oil and use cheap imported labor for the real
work in their country? Plus, they have strong political reasons at the
moment to keep the prices low. Oil pricing is just another corporate sham.

The financial rags have been talking about this for a while. Oil
production costs are not a state secret.
I agree it is a manipulated market but the biggest manipulators are
the Saudis and the gulf states. Everyone else is just hanging on and
hoping it will stop.
Since the Russians are one of the countries hurting the most and they
support Assad, it does make some immediate sense but the oil producers
also like the idea of stifling alternate energy programs, Keystone and
fracking.
This is also the classic behavior of a drug pusher. The first one is
always cheap.
When gas is $2 a gallon, people are more likely to buy an SUV and not
a Leaf. Once they own it, they are hooked.



Years ago when oil was $2.50 a barrel, we paid Saudi's $0.25 a barrel.
Estimated production cost at the end of the pipeline at the wharf was
$0.10. Their costs have gone up its inflation, but not much more than
inflation.

On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 10:54:24 -0700, Califbill billnews wrote:

The financial rags have been talking about this for a while. Oil
production costs are not a state secret.
I agree it is a manipulated market but the biggest manipulators are
the Saudis and the gulf states. Everyone else is just hanging on and
hoping it will stop.
Since the Russians are one of the countries hurting the most and they
support Assad, it does make some immediate sense but the oil producers
also like the idea of stifling alternate energy programs, Keystone and
fracking.
This is also the classic behavior of a drug pusher. The first one is
always cheap.
When gas is $2 a gallon, people are more likely to buy an SUV and not
a Leaf. Once they own it, they are hooked.



Years ago when oil was $2.50 a barrel, we paid Saudi's $0.25 a barrel.
Estimated production cost at the end of the pipeline at the wharf was
$0.10. Their costs have gone up its inflation, but not much more than
inflation.

I will defer to people who do this for a living to decide what it
costs the Saudis but the real issue is what it costs everyone else.

On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 09:40:23 -0700, Califbill billnews wrote:

Tim wrote:
On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 10:15:48 -0400, Keyser Söze
wrote:
- show quoted text -
I think this may be a bit more strategic. The saudis are selling oil
at lower than their production cost and I doubt it is out of the
kindness in their heart.
....

Probably using the same tactic the cartels pulled in the 80s to bust
their world competitors, then raise it back


I doubt it is below their production cost. Their cost is very low. A lot
lower than our costs. They do not require pumps on the wells, and have 13"
casings. I think ours are 6". Lots of gas pressure forces out the oil.

===

The real cost to the Saudis is what it costs them in drilling and
exploration expenses to maintain current flow, plus their
infrastructure costs which are quite low. There are probably some
numbers available on their drilling and exploration expenses since
they contract that out.

wrote:
On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 09:40:23 -0700, Califbill billnews wrote:

Tim wrote:
On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 10:15:48 -0400, Keyser Söze
wrote:
- show quoted text -
I think this may be a bit more strategic. The saudis are selling oil
at lower than their production cost and I doubt it is out of the
kindness in their heart.
....

Probably using the same tactic the cartels pulled in the 80s to bust
their world competitors, then raise it back


I doubt it is below their production cost. Their cost is very low. A lot
lower than our costs. They do not require pumps on the wells, and have 13"
casings. I think ours are 6". Lots of gas pressure forces out the oil.

===

The real cost to the Saudis is what it costs them in drilling and
exploration expenses to maintain current flow, plus their
infrastructure costs which are quite low. There are probably some
numbers available on their drilling and exploration expenses since
they contract that out.


How much exploration is going on there? I bet there are seismic recordings
of ever square meter of the country. Maybe run the data through newer,
better algorithm.

On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 15:37:39 -0400,
wrote:

On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 09:40:23 -0700, Califbill billnews wrote:

Tim wrote:
On Thu, 29 Oct 2015 10:15:48 -0400, Keyser Söze
wrote:
- show quoted text -
I think this may be a bit more strategic. The saudis are selling oil
at lower than their production cost and I doubt it is out of the
kindness in their heart.
....

Probably using the same tactic the cartels pulled in the 80s to bust
their world competitors, then raise it back


I doubt it is below their production cost. Their cost is very low. A lot
lower than our costs. They do not require pumps on the wells, and have 13"
casings. I think ours are 6". Lots of gas pressure forces out the oil.

===

The real cost to the Saudis is what it costs them in drilling and
exploration expenses to maintain current flow, plus their
infrastructure costs which are quite low. There are probably some
numbers available on their drilling and exploration expenses since
they contract that out.

You could get an idea by looking at the financials of schlumberger and
haliburton. They both have operating units that only operate in that
area.

Keyser Söze wrote:

How would we possibly know what the Saudi's "production costs" are,

Who do you think actually runs their refineries for them. And who built them
in the first place?

--
Paul Hovnanian
------------------------------------------------------------------
Shoot low, sheriff. They're riding Shetlands!

On 10/30/15 9:22 PM, Paul Hovnanian P.E. wrote:
Keyser Söze wrote:

How would we possibly know what the Saudi's "production costs" are,

Who do you think actually runs their refineries for them. And who built them
in the first place?


I'm sure the information is readily available at any Saudi princes-only
web page.

On Sat, 31 Oct 2015 11:58:59 -0400, Keyser Söze
wrote:

On 10/30/15 9:22 PM, Paul Hovnanian P.E. wrote:
Keyser Söze wrote:

How would we possibly know what the Saudi's "production costs" are,

Who do you think actually runs their refineries for them. And who built them
in the first place?


I'm sure the information is readily available at any Saudi princes-only
web page.

I bet your old buddy Dick Cheney knows. (or anyone else at Haliburton)
There are a few western oil field services companies that do virtually
all of that work for the Gulf states. Like I said earlier, it is not a
state secret.
The US doesn't own the oil but we own the technology that gets it out
of the ground and off to market.