WTNT43 KNHC 140839
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED 700 MB PEAK WINDS
OF 148 AND 143 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...RESPECTIVELY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO 135 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE
BUT ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 140 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB. SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE
SPECTACULAR WITH A DISTINCT EYE AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN ISABEL WITH AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 140
KNOTS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC SINCE THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS A
SHORTWAVE SWINGS OFF THE U.S EAST COAST AND WEAKENS THE STEERING
CURRENTS. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS GONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD AND ISABEL SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...DANGEROUS ISABEL WILL BE
NEARING THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH
UNANIMOUSLY BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC
COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR
5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNS
CONSENSUS WHICH HAS HAD A VERY LOW ERROR SO FAR.

FORECASTER AVILA

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but
the tracking prediction charts are interesting.



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