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#1
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Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but
the tracking prediction charts are interesting. -- * * * email sent to will *never* get to me. |
#2
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Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
"Harry Krause" wrote in message ... Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but the tracking prediction charts are interesting. Yeah. Arrived here at the house in Florida yesterday with the Scout safely in tow. I expected to be battening down the hatches. Now it seems it may be more of threat further up the coast, maybe even Cape Cod. Might have to go north again to secure the house and boats. Eisboch |
#3
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Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
"Harry Krause" wrote in message ... Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but the tracking prediction charts are interesting. Shades of Hugo. Bert |
#4
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Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
Yes, our grandkids are on the coast of Florida below Cape Canaveral?
-- Bill Kiene Kiene's Fly Shop Sacramento, CA www.kiene.com "Harry Krause" wrote in message ... Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but the tracking prediction charts are interesting. -- * * * email sent to will *never* get to me. |
#5
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Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
Bill Kiene wrote:
Yes, our grandkids are on the coast of Florida below Cape Canaveral? Doesn't appear that this one will be hitting Florida. -- * * * email sent to will *never* get to me. |
#6
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Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
Bill Kiene wrote:
Yes, our grandkids are on the coast of Florida below Cape Canaveral? From Accuweather: Hurricane Isabel has weakened a bit, but still remains a very powerful hurricane moving westward across the Atlantic Ocean. As of 11:00 a.m. AST Saturday morning, the center of Isabel was located near 22.2 north and 61.5 west, or about 405 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The maximum sustained winds have held from 5:00 a.m. at 150 mph with gusts to 185 mph. This is a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Isabel remained a Category 5 storm for 42 consecutive hours. The record is held by Hurricane Dog in 1950, which stayed at Category 5 strength for 60 consecutive hours. *&*However, forecast models suggest that Isabel can become a Cat 5 hurricane again later Saturday afternoon.** The eyewall has improved again Saturday morning. Isabel is moving to the west at around 10 mph, and this general track is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. An eyewall replacement cycle has taken place, and this may be a sign that the storm will re-strengthen; if that eyewall contracts, the pressure will fall again. The forecasting of weakening and strengthening of a hurricane is very difficult, and most attempts are unsuccessful. The hurricane will cross the path that Hurricane Fabian took several days ago. The water stirred up by Fabian is cooler, and that cooler water over several miles could also cause Isabel to weaken some. This weakening process might allow the hurricane to react to the weakness in the Atlantic high pressure ridge to the north, allowing a more west-northwest track later in the day. This track and forward speed mean Isabel will pass north of the Leeward Islands Saturday and pass well north of Puerto Rico overnight. The hurricane should be north of the Dominican Republic by early Monday. On Tuesday, we expect it located east of the Bahamas. The main synoptic features that will play a role in the track of Isabel are the Western Atlantic high pressure ridge now nosing into New England and an upper-level trough that will approach the eastern U.S. late in the weekend and early next week. A weakening of the Western Atlantic ridge in the next couple of days will cause the hurricane to move on a west-northwest and even northwest track. If the ridge does not weaken, the storm will probably track farther south. Either way, Isabel is still several days away from affecting the U.S. mainland. The area of low pressure from the remnants of Tropical Storm Henri is moving into northeasternmost North Carolina Saturday morning. With high pressure off New England, the low will continue to move northward. This feature was unable to get re-organized into a tropical system. However, there will be gale nor'easter conditions along the Middle Atlantic coast Saturday. (ie: wind, rain and pounding of beaches). A tropical wave is located along 92 west, south of 20 north Saturday. This system is causing showers and thunderstorms to fire up in the southern Bay of Campeche. In the eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave is located along 41 west, south of 20 north. Weak surface winds make this feature very hard to find. Another tropical wave is positioned over the Cape Verde Islands along 23 west and south of 18 north with scattered convection. -- * * * email sent to will *never* get to me. |
#7
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Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
A Hurricane Isabel Message board has been set up to help exchange
information about relief efforts, post updates, upload photos and general discussion. Please post if you can help. http://www.viexpo.com/dmstest/hurricane.html Thanks Disaster Message Service |
#8
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Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
I live in Bermuda and just went through Fabian. We had winds of 105 mph with
gusts of 160 mph. We were very lucky it could have been a lot worse. You need to take these storms seriously they can pick up cars and topple trees like they were nothing. People get hurt trying to save things that at the end of the day can be replaced. http://www.theroyalgazette.com/apps/...=908001&Ref=PH |
#9
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Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
Ah hell, it's just nature throwing a little chlorine in the gene pool....
-- Keith __ Disc space -- the final frontier! "gren" wrote in message .. . I live in Bermuda and just went through Fabian. We had winds of 105 mph with gusts of 160 mph. We were very lucky it could have been a lot worse. You need to take these storms seriously they can pick up cars and topple trees like they were nothing. People get hurt trying to save things that at the end of the day can be replaced. http://www.theroyalgazette.com/apps/...=908001&Ref=PH |
#10
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Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/im...00313_5day.gif
WTNT43 KNHC 130843 TCDAT3 HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003 THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 935 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS ARE 139 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 130 KNOTS AND THIS IS PROBABLY ON THE HIGH SIDE. THE RECON ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF TWO CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 25 AND 35 NMI AND A BAND OF MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH EYEWALL...RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS NO SKILL IN PREDICTING IF THE CURRENT EYEWALL CYCLE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING OR IN ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION. BEST BET IS TO INDICATE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO COOLER SSTS OR SHEAR THEREAFTER. NEVERTHERELESS... ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY ERODING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD. THIS EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTROL HOW CLOSE ISABEL APPROACHES THE U.S EAST COAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE AT LONGER RANGE. THE CONSISTENT AND GOOD PERFORMER UK MODEL HAS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RELIABLE GFDL TURNS ISABEL NORTHWARD IN FIVE DAYS AT A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE U.S EAST COAST. BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD SO FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. AT THIS TIME...I WOULD NOT EVEN DISCUSS THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE HURRICANE EASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS IN THE LATEST 00Z RUN AND ISABEL IS ALREADY WEST OF 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROVIDED BY THE GFS IS QUITE REASONABLE. NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT EVER REACH FLORIDA. BRIAN NEED NOT WORRY ABOUT HIS HAT. FORECASTER AVILA "Harry Krause" wrote in message ... Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but the tracking prediction charts are interesting. -- * * * email sent to will *never* get to me. |
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