snip

NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT
EVER REACH FLORIDA. BRIAN NEED NOT WORRY ABOUT HIS HAT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Can anybody guess who Brian is?

On Sat, 13 Sep 2003 07:51:54 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote:

Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but
the tracking prediction charts are interesting.

I'm watching it intently since my boat is on the Jersey shore.
Unfortunately, by the time I know for sure whether I'll have to evacuate
it, it'll be too late. I'm definitely NOT going to get caught sailing
up the Delaware Bay in a cat 5 hurricane.

It was already damaged in a storm a few weeks ago when the finger pier
broke and let the boat wrap itself up against the metal piling. Luckily
all it did was destroy the bow rail. A direct or even close hit from
Isabel and I can probably kiss the boat goodbye. The storm that broke
the finger pier was only around 60mph winds.

Anyone know of a good stainless steel tubing fabricator in either the
South Jersey or Philadelphia area?

Steve

On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 04:38:12 GMT, (Steven
Shelikoff) wrote:
Anyone know of a good stainless steel tubing fabricator in either the
South Jersey or Philadelphia area?
===================================

These guys are in Michigan but do a good job and ship anywhe

http://www.topsinquality.com/

They have been around a long time and my local rigger recommended them
when I needed a new bow pulpit for a Cal-34.

Wayne.B wrote:

On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 04:38:12 GMT, (Steven
Shelikoff) wrote:
Anyone know of a good stainless steel tubing fabricator in either the
South Jersey or Philadelphia area?
===================================

These guys are in Michigan but do a good job and ship anywhe

http://www.topsinquality.com/

They have been around a long time and my local rigger recommended them
when I needed a new bow pulpit for a Cal-34.


Steve should visit a few marinas in South Jersey where sportfishermen
hang out, and find out what shops do decent work at decent prices
building tee-tops and the like. Those shops will be able to handle his
job in their sleep.



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email sent to will *never* get to me.

On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 10:15:24 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote:

Wayne.B wrote:

On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 04:38:12 GMT, (Steven
Shelikoff) wrote:
Anyone know of a good stainless steel tubing fabricator in either the
South Jersey or Philadelphia area?
===================================

These guys are in Michigan but do a good job and ship anywhe

http://www.topsinquality.com/

They have been around a long time and my local rigger recommended them
when I needed a new bow pulpit for a Cal-34.

Steve should visit a few marinas in South Jersey where sportfishermen
hang out, and find out what shops do decent work at decent prices
building tee-tops and the like. Those shops will be able to handle his
job in their sleep.
===================
Probably so, but Tops-in-Quality already has templates for all major
production sailboats and will probably be quicker and less expensive.

On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 10:15:24 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote:

Wayne.B wrote:

On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 04:38:12 GMT, (Steven
Shelikoff) wrote:
Anyone know of a good stainless steel tubing fabricator in either the
South Jersey or Philadelphia area?
===================================

These guys are in Michigan but do a good job and ship anywhe

http://www.topsinquality.com/

They have been around a long time and my local rigger recommended them
when I needed a new bow pulpit for a Cal-34.


Steve should visit a few marinas in South Jersey where sportfishermen
hang out, and find out what shops do decent work at decent prices
building tee-tops and the like. Those shops will be able to handle his
job in their sleep.

I got a recommendation for C&C Towers, who do just that. I also have a
fiberglass man calling a friend who does top notch stainless welding,
where you can't even tell it's been done. The problem is that I call
these guys and leave messages and don't get return calls. I've been
trying for 2 weeks now and haven't gotten anywhere. That's no way to
run a business. I'd like to get it done by mid October because I don't
want to sail back to Philly with a shredded bow rail. But it looks like
I might have to.

Steve

(Steven Shelikoff) wrote in message
I got a recommendation for C&C Towers, who do just that. I also have a
fiberglass man calling a friend who does top notch stainless welding,
where you can't even tell it's been done. The problem is that I call
these guys and leave messages and don't get return calls.

Perhaps they've heard of you through others. People that do certain
tasks for a living don't really like people who think they know more
than they do about that particular task, and I'm certain you are one
of those.

On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 10:13:44 -0400, Wayne.B
wrote:

On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 04:38:12 GMT, (Steven
Shelikoff) wrote:
Anyone know of a good stainless steel tubing fabricator in either the
South Jersey or Philadelphia area?
===================================

These guys are in Michigan but do a good job and ship anywhe

http://www.topsinquality.com/

They have been around a long time and my local rigger recommended them
when I needed a new bow pulpit for a Cal-34.

I'll give them a call on Monday. Thanks. I still have to arrange for a
place to install it though. I could do it myself I guess, but the
marina is paying for the whole thing so I'd like to get it done
professionally.

Steve

WTNT43 KNHC 140839
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED 700 MB PEAK WINDS
OF 148 AND 143 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...RESPECTIVELY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO 135 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE
BUT ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 140 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB. SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE
SPECTACULAR WITH A DISTINCT EYE AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN ISABEL WITH AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 140
KNOTS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC SINCE THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS A
SHORTWAVE SWINGS OFF THE U.S EAST COAST AND WEAKENS THE STEERING
CURRENTS. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS GONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD AND ISABEL SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...DANGEROUS ISABEL WILL BE
NEARING THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH
UNANIMOUSLY BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC
COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR
5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNS
CONSENSUS WHICH HAS HAD A VERY LOW ERROR SO FAR.

FORECASTER AVILA

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but
the tracking prediction charts are interesting.



--
* * *
email sent to will *never* get to me.

I'm in CT and having my boat hauled out. I'm pretty much done for the
season anyway When I talked to the guy in Westbrook he said everyone is
in a panic pulling everything out that they can. Anyone else in CT hear
anything yet?


"Jim -" wrote in message
t...
WTNT43 KNHC 140839
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED 700 MB PEAK WINDS
OF 148 AND 143 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...RESPECTIVELY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO 135 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE
BUT ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 140 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB. SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE
SPECTACULAR WITH A DISTINCT EYE AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN ISABEL WITH AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 140
KNOTS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC SINCE THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS A
SHORTWAVE SWINGS OFF THE U.S EAST COAST AND WEAKENS THE STEERING
CURRENTS. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS GONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD AND ISABEL SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...DANGEROUS ISABEL WILL BE
NEARING THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH
UNANIMOUSLY BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC
COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR
5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNS
CONSENSUS WHICH HAS HAD A VERY LOW ERROR SO FAR.

FORECASTER AVILA

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but
the tracking prediction charts are interesting.



--
* * *
email sent to will *never* get to me.