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Bill Kiene wrote:
Yes, our grandkids are on the coast of Florida below Cape Canaveral? From Accuweather: Hurricane Isabel has weakened a bit, but still remains a very powerful hurricane moving westward across the Atlantic Ocean. As of 11:00 a.m. AST Saturday morning, the center of Isabel was located near 22.2 north and 61.5 west, or about 405 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The maximum sustained winds have held from 5:00 a.m. at 150 mph with gusts to 185 mph. This is a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Isabel remained a Category 5 storm for 42 consecutive hours. The record is held by Hurricane Dog in 1950, which stayed at Category 5 strength for 60 consecutive hours. *&*However, forecast models suggest that Isabel can become a Cat 5 hurricane again later Saturday afternoon.** The eyewall has improved again Saturday morning. Isabel is moving to the west at around 10 mph, and this general track is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. An eyewall replacement cycle has taken place, and this may be a sign that the storm will re-strengthen; if that eyewall contracts, the pressure will fall again. The forecasting of weakening and strengthening of a hurricane is very difficult, and most attempts are unsuccessful. The hurricane will cross the path that Hurricane Fabian took several days ago. The water stirred up by Fabian is cooler, and that cooler water over several miles could also cause Isabel to weaken some. This weakening process might allow the hurricane to react to the weakness in the Atlantic high pressure ridge to the north, allowing a more west-northwest track later in the day. This track and forward speed mean Isabel will pass north of the Leeward Islands Saturday and pass well north of Puerto Rico overnight. The hurricane should be north of the Dominican Republic by early Monday. On Tuesday, we expect it located east of the Bahamas. The main synoptic features that will play a role in the track of Isabel are the Western Atlantic high pressure ridge now nosing into New England and an upper-level trough that will approach the eastern U.S. late in the weekend and early next week. A weakening of the Western Atlantic ridge in the next couple of days will cause the hurricane to move on a west-northwest and even northwest track. If the ridge does not weaken, the storm will probably track farther south. Either way, Isabel is still several days away from affecting the U.S. mainland. The area of low pressure from the remnants of Tropical Storm Henri is moving into northeasternmost North Carolina Saturday morning. With high pressure off New England, the low will continue to move northward. This feature was unable to get re-organized into a tropical system. However, there will be gale nor'easter conditions along the Middle Atlantic coast Saturday. (ie: wind, rain and pounding of beaches). A tropical wave is located along 92 west, south of 20 north Saturday. This system is causing showers and thunderstorms to fire up in the southern Bay of Campeche. In the eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave is located along 41 west, south of 20 north. Weak surface winds make this feature very hard to find. Another tropical wave is positioned over the Cape Verde Islands along 23 west and south of 18 north with scattered convection. -- * * * email sent to will *never* get to me. |
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Link to amazing Hurricane Isabel animation | General |