wrote in message
...
On Thu, 15 Oct 2009 09:51:08 -0700, "nom=de=plume"
wrote:

It's foolish in the extreme
to attempt to time the market. The best strategy is dollar cost averaging
and diversification, both domestically and in foreign markets.


I always hear that but it is also foolish to simply buy and hold.
There are trends you can follow and indications of when a market is
overpriced and I think it is overpriced right now. Irrational
exuberance might notch it up incrementally higher but we don't really
have the recovery at this point to justify the current stock prices.
They call employment a lagging indicator but that assumes there is
something in the pipe that will stimulate hiring and I don't see it.
You can hold and buy this market down but I prefer to take some off
the table and buy back in after the dip.


Never said you should buy and hold. There's frequently an opportunity to
make informed choices and to move investments around to maximize the
likelihood of reaching your goal.

It's not an uncommon thought that the market is overpriced. I've heard this
several times on the business shows. The problem is that if you get out now,
you might miss a lot of the upside. On the other hand, if you don't get out,
at some point you'll hit the downside. That's why dollar cost averaging
works. You don't have to worry too much about when to get in or get out.
Averages are your friend. Part of a wise investment strategy is having some
decent amount of liquidity. I don't know what the recommendation is these
days, but I, for example, have about a year in liquid savings. It's part of
my strategy. I can dip into it for various reasons, one of which might be
trying to time a dip in the market.

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Nom=de=Plume

On Thu, 15 Oct 2009 22:11:26 -0400, wrote:

Even if my stock picking sucks and there is still a lot of up side, I
would still say the smart money would want their profit in after tax
money at the current tax rate, not what we will be paying when
congress wakes up and figures out we are broke.

If you pull everything out of the market then you're at risk with a
weak dollar/inflation scenario. It's not an easy decision right now
but strategic metals and oil should do OK unless we have a global
depression. Cash is king in a depression of course, but which
currency and how to invest in it, is an interesting problem.

"Wayne.B" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 15 Oct 2009 22:11:26 -0400, wrote:

Even if my stock picking sucks and there is still a lot of up side, I
would still say the smart money would want their profit in after tax
money at the current tax rate, not what we will be paying when
congress wakes up and figures out we are broke.

If you pull everything out of the market then you're at risk with a
weak dollar/inflation scenario. It's not an easy decision right now
but strategic metals and oil should do OK unless we have a global
depression. Cash is king in a depression of course, but which
currency and how to invest in it, is an interesting problem.


I wouldn't put all my chickens in the basket of metals and oil. Some is
fine.

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Nom=de=Plume

On Thu, 15 Oct 2009 12:56:58 -0400, wrote:

On Thu, 15 Oct 2009 11:51:58 -0400, wrote:

On Thu, 15 Oct 2009 09:34:37 -0400, Keith Nuttle
wrote:

It might be a good time to pick a "get out alive" price and place your
sell orders.

If you do that you will really lose money. We stuck it out and have
recovered a good chunk of money lost we lost in the pelosi plunge and
obama slide.

OK do what you want but I bet there is a correction and you can buy
your position back for about 60-70%% of where it was when you sold it.

Some day soon it will occur to Wall Street that the American consumer
is broke. The fat cats may still be getting their bonuses but we still
have double digit unemployment and worse "underemployment" where
skilled trades are wearing orange aprons in empty Home Depots.

Real recovery will start when the middle class recovers.That hasn't
happened yet


BTW another reason to get your sell orders in is to lock in your
profits under the Bush capital gains rates. As soon as they get this
health care deal settled, the next step is paying for it and capital
gains will be one place they "stick it to the rich". Right now you
only pay taxes on gains at a max of 15% and it is really even lower
than that for most people. Plan on that creeping up to your ordinary
income rate.

Some of us have a very minor capital loss to apply to the gains. Maybe
there's not such a reason to rush the sale yet.

On 10/15/09 4:47 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 15 Oct 2009 13:30:58 -0400, John H.
wrote:

BTW another reason to get your sell orders in is to lock in your
profits under the Bush capital gains rates. As soon as they get this
health care deal settled, the next step is paying for it and capital
gains will be one place they "stick it to the rich". Right now you
only pay taxes on gains at a max of 15% and it is really even lower
than that for most people. Plan on that creeping up to your ordinary
income rate.

Some of us have a very minor capital loss to apply to the gains. Maybe
there's not such a reason to rush the sale yet.

If you have enough losses to wash your gains, holding and hoping might
be a better strategy but if you can only wash a small percentage a big
bump in the cap gains tax will hurt you. Better to get out while you
can do it cheaply.


Whew! My half-interest in our strip shopping mall/center partnership in
Connecticut is still doing well. We've lost only one tenant these past
two years for inability to pay, and that tenant was replaced this summer.

We were going to sell the mall and therefore have "proceeds" to
invest...I'm glad every day we did not. It throws off a nice income to
me and to my family lawyer partner up in Connecticut, *and* it provides
a small but steady fee for our accountant, who collects the rents and
pays the bills and supervise maintenance. All three of us have been
close friends since our summer boyhood beach days in Milford. Fifty year
friendships are priceless.





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http://tinyurl.com/ykaa4k7