wrote in message
...
On Thu, 15 Oct 2009 09:51:08 -0700, "nom=de=plume"
wrote:

It's foolish in the extreme
to attempt to time the market. The best strategy is dollar cost averaging
and diversification, both domestically and in foreign markets.


I always hear that but it is also foolish to simply buy and hold.
There are trends you can follow and indications of when a market is
overpriced and I think it is overpriced right now. Irrational
exuberance might notch it up incrementally higher but we don't really
have the recovery at this point to justify the current stock prices.
They call employment a lagging indicator but that assumes there is
something in the pipe that will stimulate hiring and I don't see it.
You can hold and buy this market down but I prefer to take some off
the table and buy back in after the dip.


Never said you should buy and hold. There's frequently an opportunity to
make informed choices and to move investments around to maximize the
likelihood of reaching your goal.

It's not an uncommon thought that the market is overpriced. I've heard this
several times on the business shows. The problem is that if you get out now,
you might miss a lot of the upside. On the other hand, if you don't get out,
at some point you'll hit the downside. That's why dollar cost averaging
works. You don't have to worry too much about when to get in or get out.
Averages are your friend. Part of a wise investment strategy is having some
decent amount of liquidity. I don't know what the recommendation is these
days, but I, for example, have about a year in liquid savings. It's part of
my strategy. I can dip into it for various reasons, one of which might be
trying to time a dip in the market.

--
Nom=de=Plume