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Some thoughts for food.
The National Election Pool exit poll of 17,836 randomly selected voters,
conducted by Edison-Mitofsky, shows how shaky the jargon of political analysis can be. Twenty-two percent of those polled identified themselves as "liberal," 34 percent as "conservative," 44 percent as "moderate." Such numbers are cited by proponents of the "center-right country" argument. But one in five of the self-styled conservatives voted for Barack Obama, and one in 10 liberals voted for John McCain. The moderates were overwhelmingly for Obama, by 60 percent to 39 percent. Those self-identifications obviously meant different things to different people. "There's a lot of contradictions in what people tell you," observed Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster. Added Samuel Popkin, a political scientist at the University of California at San Diego, voters' definitions of political terms are not rigid: "The Beltway notion and the people's notion is very different." (THE MEAT *****Whatever the appropriate label, substantial majorities of the voters of 2008 want the war in Iraq to end as soon as possible. Large majorities favor affordable health insurance for everyone, a fairer distribution of wealth and income, and higher taxes on the rich. They want to preserve traditional Social Security. They want more effective government regulation of the financial sector. On social issues, the country that elected Obama is tolerant of homosexuality and legal recognition of same-sex partnerships, less so of same-sex marriage. A post-election survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a Democratic polling firm, showed that 51 percent said "the government should do more to solve problems."***** But how much more? The same exit poll also asked which of two statements respondents agreed with: "On health care, we need to act boldly to address the problems" or "On health care, we need to act step-by-step to address the problems." Forty-six percent agreed with the first statement, but 50 percent endorsed the second. Such flashes of native caution or conservatism are common. The same poll offered another choice: "I'm more worried that we will fail to make the investments we need to create jobs and strengthen the economy" or "I'm more worried that we will go too far in increasing government spending and will end up raising taxes to pay for it." Voters split 48 percent to 48 percent. Popkin has a formulation that resolves the inconsistency: "We are center-left on social issues and environment, and center-right on fiscal issues." Yet we have run up huge deficits over the last three decades and are about to add substantially to them -- another inconsistency. (Part of an article in the Washington Post. 17,000+ surveyed...pretty damned big sample.) |
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