Geoff Schultz wrote:
If you're coastal US, then I would believe that the localized coastal
forecasts should be fairly accurate.

Sure. Often, they're so vague or describe such a wide range of
probably conditions that they're not useful, but they're usually quite
accurate.

On Jul 29, 6:38 am, wrote:
And you would be wrong, at least in my part of the coastal US. Very wrong.

I bet the problem is that you don't know how to read (or listen) to a
weather forecast.

I've kept a weather log as part of my general sailing & cruising for
decades. This includes a decade of trailer-cruising, and trailering
racing one-design class boats all over the eastern US... occasionally
out West.

Back in the 1970s, NOAA weather was about 75% accurate in all the
areas I sailed. Since then, they've improved to about 90%. On our
recent Great Loop, the weather forecasts were actually better than
that.

Often, they aren't very useful... "50% chance of thunderstorms" for
example. "Winds 5 to 15 knots" for another.

But the real problem is that people expect the weatherman to be able
to lead them by the hand and tell them exactly what to expect. Sorry,
nobody can do that. But private services who invest a lot in making
you feel good can give a better result in terms of confidence.

Fresh Breezes (50% chance of)- Doug King